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My final top 4 prediction: Would appear I can't predict for toffee!!!
Yorkie (IP Logged)
26 March, 2012 14:05
Original thread title:

The final top 4 with 4 Prem league games left?


Getting near enough to the end of the season to give it a logical go at predicting the top 4 when the over large female warbles.

Currently we have a Prem table which looks like:

1 (1) Harlequins 18 14 1 3 412 300 41 25 3 1 62
2 (2) Saracens 18 13 1 4 393 282 29 22 2 3 59
3 (3) Leicester Tigers 18 11 1 6 498 405 52 39 6 3 55
4 (4) Northampton Saints 18 11 0 7 432 304 40 23 4 4 52
5 (5) Exeter Chiefs 18 10 0 8 350 326 28 29 2 7 49
6 (6) Gloucester Rugby 18 8 1 9 375 376 35 35 1 7 42


Quins.
Saracens away ..... 0 point 4 points
Wasps home ........ 5 points
Tigers home ....... 1 point 0 points
Sale away ......... 4 points

10 more points will leave Quins with 72 76 75 points.

Sarries
Quins home ........ 4 points 1 point
Irish away ........ 4 points
Falcons away ...... 4 points
Exeter home ....... 4 points 5 points

16 more points will leave Sarries with 75 72 73 points.

Tigers
Worcester home ..... 5 points
Saints away ........ 4 points 5 points
Quins away ......... 4 points 5 points
Bath home .......... 5 points 4 points

18 more points will leave us on 73 74 75 74 points.

Saints
Bath away .......... 4 points
Tigers home ........ 1 point 0 points
Exeter away ........ 1 point 4 points
Worcester home ..... 5 points

11 more points will give Saints on 63 62 65 points.

Exeter
Irish home ......... 5 points 4 points
Worcester away ..... 4 points 5 points
Saints home ........ 4 points 1 point
Sarries away ....... 1 point 0 points

14 more points will give Exeter 63 62 63 60 59 points.

Glaws being 7 points behind Exeter are too far back for a top 4 finish now.

So my final table would be:

1. Sarries ........ 75 points
2. Tigers ......... 73 points
3. Quins .......... 72 points
4= Saints ......... 63 points
4= Exeter ......... 63 points


1. Quins ......... 76 points
2. Tigers ......... 73 points
3. Sarries ........ 72 points
4. Saints ......... 63 points
5. Exeter ......... 62 points


1. Quins ......... 76 points
2. Tigers ......... 74 points
3. Sarries ........ 72 points
4. Exeter ......... 63 points
5. Saints ......... 62 points


1. Quins ......... 75 points
2. Tigers ......... 75 points
3. Sarries ........ 72 points
4. Saints ......... 65 points
5. Exeter ......... 60 points


So final table is:

1. Quins ......... 75 points
2. Tigers ......... 74 points
3. Sarries ........ 73 points
4. Saints ......... 65 points
5. Exeter ......... 59 points





"In the case of equality at any stage of the Season, positions at that stage of the season shall be determined firstly by the number of wins achieved and then on the basis of match points differential. A Club with a larger number of wins shall be placed higher than a Club with the same number of league points but fewer wins.

If Clubs have equal league points and equal number of wins then a Club with a larger difference between match points "for" and match points "against" shall be placed higher in the Premiership League than a Club with a smaller difference between match points "for" and match points "against".

Should two Clubs have the same number of league points and the same match points difference, the Club having scored more match points "for" shall be placed higher in the Premiership League than the Club having the lesser number of match points "for".

If the above does not establish different Premiership League positions then the Club in the higher position shall be the Club that has achieved the higher aggregate match points scored by it in the same season against the other Club.

If this still does not establish the position then the Club who has won the most matches, excluding its first Premiership League match of the season, then its second Premiership League match and so on, until it can be established which the higher placed Club is.
"

So based upon the first differentiator, no of wins, Exeter and Saints still can't be split so it'll be down to Saints to preserve their current big "points differnce" advantage.


All imvho of course and subject to my maths being correct!


<Revised to take account of results>



http://www.jakehowlett.com/tuckshop/wrappers/chocolate/plain/yorkie-nutter.jpg




Edited 5 time(s). Last edit at 06/05/2012 16:27 by Yorkie.

 
Re: The final top 4 with 4 Prem league games left?
IDLETIMES (IP Logged)
26 March, 2012 14:10
Good post Yorkie. I think you are right about Glaws, tumbled at the water and now a 5 horse race.Have to hand it to Exeter, they have done really well, they don't get too many try bonus points but they seem to have found out how to win the 'tight' ones.If they'bow up' now iot will have been a good season, may yet be a memorable one.

 
Re: The final top 4 with 4 Prem league games left?
Tigergeezer (IP Logged)
26 March, 2012 14:14
I don't see Exeter bonus-pointing Irish or beating Saints, and I'd be absolutely ecstatic if we beat both Quins and Saints away. Likeliest positions IMHO are:

Sarries
Quins
Tigers
Saints

very close between third and fourth, and very dependent on what we make of the trip to FG and whether Barf still have it in them to shock our Saintly buddies.



_____________________________________________

My pink half of the drainpipe
I may paint it blue
My pink half of the drainpipe
Keeps me safe from you....

 
Re: The final top 4 with 4 Prem league games left?
Rich W (IP Logged)
26 March, 2012 15:06
Think we'll beat Quins - maybe with a bonus - but will struggle for more than an lbp at Saints.

But other than that I can't differ much from Yorke.

Leaving us and Quins on 71 and a share of 2nd/3rd.



...
I'll tell you what I saw him
He was sittin' behind us down at the Pantages
And whatever it is that he's got up his sleeve
I hope it isn't contagious
What's her name? Is that her there?
Christ, I think he's even combed his hair!

 
Re: The final top 4 with 4 Prem league games left?
Tiggs (IP Logged)
26 March, 2012 15:17
Actually leaving Quins 2nd and Tigers 3rd surely ?



http://homepage.ntlworld.com/stephen.bath1/Bath/Photos/tighthead.gif http://homepage.ntlworld.com/stephen.bath1/Bath/Photos/TigersFire2.gif

 
Re: The final top 4 with 4 Prem league games left?
Rich W (IP Logged)
26 March, 2012 15:22
Not sure what the differential on wins is/will be...



...
I'll tell you what I saw him
He was sittin' behind us down at the Pantages
And whatever it is that he's got up his sleeve
I hope it isn't contagious
What's her name? Is that her there?
Christ, I think he's even combed his hair!

 
Re: The final top 4 with 4 Prem league games left?
Tiggs (IP Logged)
26 March, 2012 15:24
Easily in Quins favour, if we finish on the same points, as we have so many more BP's already.



http://homepage.ntlworld.com/stephen.bath1/Bath/Photos/tighthead.gif http://homepage.ntlworld.com/stephen.bath1/Bath/Photos/TigersFire2.gif

 
Re: The final top 4 with 4 Prem league games left?
tbtb (IP Logged)
26 March, 2012 15:40
I extremely doubt we will beat Stains, however I think we will win the other three.

 
Re: The final top 4 with 4 Prem league games left?
Stopsy (IP Logged)
26 March, 2012 16:38
Given that we are underdogs for every game surely the best we can hope for is 55 and pray we do not get deducted any for being.....

Its a good job we are already in the HEC due to the LV=, unless the stewards enquiry takes that away too.

 
Re: The final top 4 with 4 Prem league games left?
Yorkie (IP Logged)
26 March, 2012 23:52
I wonder what'd happen if Sarries did finish top of the pile but didn't win the cabbage patch money maker?!!



http://www.jakehowlett.com/tuckshop/wrappers/chocolate/plain/yorkie-nutter.jpg

 
Re: The final top 4 with 4 Prem league games left?
Saint Morrissey (IP Logged)
27 March, 2012 08:46
You are fast becoming the firm favourites. Hitting form and getting players back. Maybe a slightly leaky defence? I doubt any team will be happy to play you home or away.

 
Re: The final top 4 with 4 Prem league games left?
andrew pickard (IP Logged)
27 March, 2012 09:06
Quins.
Saracens away ..... 1 point
Wasps home ........ 5 points
Tigers home ....... 1 point
Sale away ......... 5 points

12 more points will leave Quins with 74 points.

Sarries
Quins home ........ 4 points
Irish away ........ 4 points
Falcons away ...... 4 points
Exeter home ....... 4 points

16 more points will leave Sarries with 75 points.

Tigers
Worcester home ..... 5 points
Saints away ........ 1 point
Quins away ......... 4 points
Bath home .......... 5 points

15 more points will leave us on 69 points.

Saints
Bath away .......... 4 points
Tigers home ........ 4 point
Exeter away ........ 4 point
Worcester home ..... 5 points

17 more points will give Saints on 69 points.

Exeter
Irish home ......... 4 points
Worcester away ..... 4 points
Saints home ........ 1 point
Sarries away ....... 1 point

10 more points will give Exeter on 59 points.

Glos
Wasps away ......... 5 points
Newcastle home ..... 5 points
Sale home .......... 5 points
Irish away ......... 5 points

20 more points will give Glos on 62 points.

1. Sarries 75
2. Quins 74
3. Saints 69 (15 wins)
4. Tigers 69 (14 wins)
5. Glos 62
6. Exeter 59

 
Re: The final top 4 with 4 Prem league games left?
Saint Morrissey (IP Logged)
27 March, 2012 09:23
Andrew, that would be the perfect outcome as far as I'm concerned!!

 
Re: The final top 4 with 4 Prem league games left?
andrew pickard (IP Logged)
27 March, 2012 09:45
I didn't say I was happy with the outcome, although if we then went on to lift the pot, it would provide more ammunition for those of who disagree with the rip-offs.

 
Re: The final top 4 with 4 Prem league games left?
Rich W (IP Logged)
27 March, 2012 10:23
It would not surprise me an awful lot of Exeter were to win one of their games against either Saints or Sarries.

I also wouldn't nail the win vs Sale on Quins.

Still - it's in our hands - win our games and we'll see...



...
I'll tell you what I saw him
He was sittin' behind us down at the Pantages
And whatever it is that he's got up his sleeve
I hope it isn't contagious
What's her name? Is that her there?
Christ, I think he's even combed his hair!

 
Re: The final top 4 with 4 Prem league games left?
melton tiger (IP Logged)
27 March, 2012 11:22
Gosh, it is exciting isn't it - the play-off structure is such fun. I feel like getting a ticket for Quins and having a picnic with lashings of ginger beer in the Stoop car park...

 
Re: The final top 4 with 4 Prem league games left?
Roger (IP Logged)
27 March, 2012 13:13
But none of those predictions will help with my prediction league performance. I'm beginning to think I've left it all too late. I'm having a transition season. A bit like Bath.

 
Re: The final top 4 with 4 Prem league games left?
melton tiger (IP Logged)
27 March, 2012 13:35
Permanently in transition Roger, how do you cope with that, moreover how do others around you cope with your constant state of flux...I suppose you could join the Liberal Democrats...

 
Re: The final top 4 with 4 Prem league games left?
Bluntiger (IP Logged)
27 March, 2012 14:16
For me there are three key fixtures that will have a great impact on who will finish where.

Saracens vs Quins
Saints vs Tigers
Quins vs Tigers

Also, Exeter play both Saints (h) and Saracens (a) in their last two games and that could also have an impact. It is easy to write Exeter off and they probably won't finish top 4 but they've been written off many times and proved everyone wrong.

Gloucester are out of the running for top 4 and play none of the top 5 teams in the run-in so will not be a factor but the two other teams who could cause an impact are Irish (didn't see them producing the performance they did last weekend) who play Saracens (h) and Exeter (a) and could pull off a resuly and also Bath who play Saint (h) and Tigers (a).

So, for me the only way to secure a top 2 finish for Tigers to to win at Saints AND Quins.

But realistically it will finish:

Saracens
Quins
Tigers
Saints

And, I would fancy our chances of turning over Quins at the Stoop.

 
Re: The final top 4 with 4 Prem league games left?
melton tiger (IP Logged)
27 March, 2012 15:10
I think Sarries are just about nailed on for top spot. If they win the happy clappy fixture it's game over in that respect. I think they'll win and by some margin, so we can forget about them for now.

I expect a shock result somewhere along the way - my money would go on Sale to turn Quins over on the final day. So I'm going to say

Quins.
Saracens away ..... 0 point
Wasps home ........ 5 points
Tigers home ....... ?? point
Sale away ......... 1 points

That gives them 68

With two 5 pointers from Bath and Wuss we can get to 65, so that leaves the Quins game as winner takes all on our relative league positions.

I also think the winner of Saints v Tigers will determine our respective league positions because I think Saints will get to 65 from their 3 other games.

Time to look at the spread prices to see if there any opportunities...

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