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Re: League Table Predictions
Innings (IP Logged)
29 August, 2018 18:24
Bath, Bristol, Exeter, Gloucester, Harlequins, Leicester, Newcastle, Northampton, Sale, Saracens, Wasps, Worcester

5 11 2 9 10 6 4 8 7 3 1 12

Wasps beat Exeter in final



Innings

Points win matches: tries win hearts and minds.

 
Re: League Table Predictions
Sara'sman (IP Logged)
30 August, 2018 11:01
Entries are now closed, no further changes – clearly only TT was swayed by Rugby Tonight's backing of Gloucester.

24 of the 28 entrants have gone for Sarries to win the final – all bar the admirable loyalty of tigerburnie (L bt E), our own The Bard (E bt Wa), Innings (Wa bt E), and the inimitable Tony Taff (Wa bt Sr). Great if we do win, but perhaps not good for the competition if we really are such strong favourites (which I don't believe to be the case).

For losing finalist we have:

13 – Exeter (including once to Tigers and once to Wasps) [+1 Win]
9 – Wasps (including once to Exeter) [+2 Wins}
4 – Leicester {+1 Win]
1 – Gloucester
1 - Saracens (to Wasps)

“Old Codger” is a pseudonym, but for whom/what? A little lateral thinking may reveal the old boy's identity. A special prize of 50% off the entrance fee awaits the first to reveal it.

Based on the averages of our rankings, the final league table will be:

1.93 Exeter
2.00 Saracens
2.64 Wasps
4.54 Leicester

5.75 Gloucester
6.46 Bath
6.71 Newcastle
7.14 Sale

8.86 Northampton
9.43 Harlequins
11.00 Bristol
11.54 Worcester



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 30/08/2018 11:03 by Sara'sman.

 
Re: League Table Predictions
Sara'sman (IP Logged)
31 August, 2018 18:00
I've checked my input of your entries (and found 4 mistakes) so please also check your entry (below) and PM me if I've still made an error. I'll try to post updates after each round on Sunday/Monday.

Ba	Br	E	G	H	L	Ne	No	Sal	Sar	Wa	Wo	
3	11	1	5	10	6	9	8	7	4	2	12	Sara'sman
6	11	1	5	7	4	8	9	10	3	2	12	Waldo
6	11	2	4	10	7	8	9	5	1	3	12	Bath Hammer
6	11	2	9	10	3	5	8	7	1	4	12	maynas
5	10	1	3	11	7	8	9	6	2	4	12	vunipolae
5	11	3	6	10	4	7	9	8	2	1	12	whyisitnevereasy
5	11	2	7	10	4	8	9	6	1	3	12	BathMatt53
10	11	3	4	9	5	6	8	7	2	1	12	Barty II
6	12	2	10	11	4	5	8	7	1	3	9	tigerburnie
7	11	1	9	5	4	6	10	8	2	3	12	Roger G
9	8	2	4	11	6	5	10	7	1	3	12	Gryff
8	11	4	9	6	3	7	10	5	1	2	12	Sully08
8	11	1	3	10	4	6	9	7	2	5	12	Maroon Tyke
4	12	1	5	7	6	9	10	8	2	3	11	JO'G
5	11	3	7	8	2	6	9	10	1	4	12	duchessmalfi
7	12	2	5	11	3	9	8	6	1	4	10	Duncan Keene
9	11	2	8	10	5	4	7	6	3	1	12	Tony Taff
8	12	2	4	11	5	7	9	6	3	1	10	RobP74
6	12	2	4	11	7	8	10	5	3	1	9	OverTheBorder
7	9	1	3	12	5	6	10	8	2	4	11	robtheh
7	11	2	8	10	3	5	9	6	1	4	12	derbyshire fan
7	11	2	4	10	5	6	8	9	1	3	12	4everhopePhil
5	11	2	3	7	6	10	8	9	4	1	12	The Bard
5	12	1	7	9	2	6	10	8	3	4	11	Darraghgirl
10	11	1	4	9	5	8	7	6	2	3	12	OhMaroItoje
6	11	4	5	10	2	7	9	8	3	1	12	AP
6	11	2	7	9	4	5	10	8	1	3	12	Squarker2
5	11	2	9	10	6	4	8	7	3	1	12	Innings
6	11	2	5	9	4	7	8	10	1	3	12	Odds Checker
6	11	1	5	10	4	7	9	8	2	3	12	Our Average

I've made two additions to our entries:

Our Average represents the teams ordered by the average of our placings and
Odds Checker (aka “Old Codger”) the order in which the bookies rated each team's chance of finishing top on 19th August.

 
Re: League Table Predictions
derbyshire fan (IP Logged)
31 August, 2018 18:43
Thanks for all that hard work; fun trying to look at the names next to each row on my tablet when they keep getting covered up with adverts!

 
Re: League Table Predictions
Sara'sman (IP Logged)
31 August, 2018 19:48
Another (half time Bvcool smiley way of representing the above:

Ba	Br	E	G	H	L	Ne	No	Sal	Sar	Wa	Wo
3	8	1	3	5	2	4	7	5	1	1	9
4	9	1	3	6	2	4	7	5	1	1	9
5	10	1	3	7	2	5	8	5	1	1	10
5	11	1	3	7	3	5	8	6	1	1	10
5	11	1	4	7	3	5	8	6	1	1	11
5	11	1	4	8	3	5	8	6	1	1	11
5	11	1	4	9	3	5	8	6	1	1	11
5	11	1	4	9	4	6	8	6	1	1	12
5	11	1	4	9	4	6	8	6	1	2	12
6	11	1	4	9	4	6	8	6	1	2	12
6	11	2	4	9	4	6	8	7	1	2	12
6	11	2	5	10	4	6	9	7	1	3	12
6	11	2	5	10	4	6	9	7	2	3	12
6	11	2	5	10	4	6	9	7	2	3	12
6	11	2	5	10	4	7	9	7	2	3	12
6	11	2	5	10	4	7	9	7	2	3	12
6	11	2	5	10	5	7	9	7	2	3	12
6	11	2	5	10	5	7	9	8	2	3	12
7	11	2	6	10	5	7	9	8	2	3	12
7	11	2	7	10	5	7	9	8	2	3	12
7	11	2	7	10	5	8	9	8	2	3	12
7	11	2	7	10	5	8	9	8	3	3	12
7	11	2	7	10	6	8	10	8	3	4	12
8	11	2	8	11	6	8	10	8	3	4	12
8	12	2	8	11	6	8	10	8	3	4	12
8	12	3	9	11	6	8	10	9	3	4	12
9	12	3	9	11	6	9	10	9	3	4	12
9	12	3	9	11	7	9	10	10	3	4	12
10	12	4	9	11	7	9	10	10	4	4	12
10	12	4	10	12	7	10	10	10	4	5	12


 
Re: League Table Predictions
AP (IP Logged)
31 August, 2018 21:00
That's an interesting way of representing the predictions!



Successful hills are here to stay
Everything must be this way
Gentle streets where people play
Welcome to the Soft Parade

 
Re: League Table Predictions
Sara'sman (IP Logged)
01 September, 2018 19:37
With only our game to go in R1, The Bard leading at 0.287, last is -0.280. Early days! Once the table settles a little (R6?) I'm expecting the bulk of the coefficients to be in the range 0.5 to 0.95.

 
Re: League Table Predictions
Sara'sman (IP Logged)
02 September, 2018 19:13
Round 1

Congratulations to JO'G - quickest out of the blocks. Tigers are costing us all dearly (where have I heard that before?) but none more so than tigerburnie whose faith has cost him 0.423 directly, probably 0.5 in total.

0.434	JO'G
0.413	The Bard
0.392	Waldo
0.343	Roger G
0.308	vunipolae
0.308	Gryff
0.294	Odds Checker
0.280	robtheh
0.280	4everhopePhil
0.280	Bath Hammer
0.273	OhMaroItoje
0.238	Maroon Tyke
0.238	Our Average
0.224	Barty II
0.217	Sara'sman
0.210	Squawker2
0.210	OverTheBorder
0.168	duchessmalfi
0.147	RobP74
0.140	whyisitnevereasy
0.133	BathMatt53
0.119	Sully08
0.112	Darraghgirl
0.091	Duncan Keene
0.070	Innings
0.042	derbyshire fan
0.035	Tony Taff
0.028	AP
0.021	maynas
-0.007	tigerburnie


 
Re: League Table Predictions
derbyshire fan (IP Logged)
02 September, 2018 19:26
well at least I have a positive score!

 
Re: League Table Predictions
Bath Hammer (IP Logged)
03 September, 2018 07:02
Well done Sara’sman - an interesting exercise. Just a pity more didn’t get involved. It will nevertheless be interesting to see how the season pans out in comparison.

 
Re: League Table Predictions
tigerburnie (IP Logged)
03 September, 2018 15:30
We are just getting warmed up lads don't worry...…………...(Sm100)

 
Re: League Table Predictions
AP (IP Logged)
03 September, 2018 20:00
Quote:
tigerburnie
We are just getting warmed up lads don't worry...…………...(Sm100)

Perhaps we should have had a prediction table for managerial changes ...



Successful hills are here to stay
Everything must be this way
Gentle streets where people play
Welcome to the Soft Parade

 
Re: League Table Predictions
Sara'sman (IP Logged)
09 September, 2018 18:20
Round 2

Each club has now played one Home and one Away, with 3 yet to win, 2 winning both. The average of our coefficients is a much healthier 0.571 (up from 0.201) with OhMaroItoje replacing the old boy at the summit.

0.769	OhMaroItoje
0.755	The Bard
0.741	Waldo
0.692	JO'G
0.678	Odds Checker
0.657	Maroon Tyke
0.657	Barty II
0.650	4everhopePhil
0.636	Our Average
0.629	Bath Hammer
0.615	Roger G
0.615	vunipolae
0.615	Duncan Keene
0.580	Gryff
0.573	robtheh
0.559	Sara'sman
0.559	BathMatt53
0.552	RobP74
0.545	duchessmalfi
0.538	Sully08
0.531	whyisitnevereasy
0.524	Squawker2
0.517	AP
0.490	OverTheBorder
0.490	Darraghgirl
0.462	derbyshire fan
0.427	Tony Taff
0.427	maynas
0.322	Innings
0.308	tigerburnie


 
Re: League Table Predictions
Sara'sman (IP Logged)
16 September, 2018 16:01
Round 3

With three sides remaining unbeaten and only one winless, week 3 sees our third leader as Waldo moves up two places, narrowly preventing JO'G from returning to the summit. A shame that other than this pair only the consistent The Bard (who slips from second two weeks running to third) is beating the Bookies.

0.923	Waldo
0.916	JO'G
0.909	The Bard
0.895	Odds Checker
0.867	4everhopePhil
0.853	Our Average
0.825	vunipolae
0.818	Sara'sman
0.804	duchessmalfi
0.804	Maroon Tyke
0.797	Squawker2
0.797	Bath Hammer
0.797	whyisitnevereasy
0.790	robtheh
0.769	Roger G
0.755	Darraghgirl
0.755	BathMatt53
0.755	OhMaroItoje
0.741	Barty II
0.734	AP
0.734	Gryff
0.706	RobP74
0.699	Duncan Keene
0.692	OverTheBorder
0.657	maynas
0.657	derbyshire fan
0.657	Innings
0.601	Sully08
0.587	Tony Taff
0.559	tigerburnie

Average: 0.762

 
Re: League Table Predictions
Sara'sman (IP Logged)
23 September, 2018 18:40
Round 4

Whilst our average coefficient has fallen, the top 3 looks familiar with JO'G the first to lead the pack for a second time. But headline news sees tigerburnie finally poke his head above the basement. Will he follow his team's familiar habit and make a late season charge to the top 4?

0.853	JO'G
0.825	Waldo
0.804	The Bard
0.783	Odds Checker
0.727	Our Average
0.727	duchessmalfi
0.720	whyisitnevereasy
0.713	4everhopePhil
0.713	Sara'sman
0.699	Squawker2
0.692	Roger G
0.685	vunipolae
0.678	BathMatt53
0.671	robtheh
0.664	Bath Hammer
0.657	Darraghgirl
0.636	AP
0.622	OverTheBorder
0.608	Gryff
0.601	Maroon Tyke
0.601	Duncan Keene
0.580	RobP74
0.566	Barty II
0.559	OhMaroItoje
0.545	maynas
0.545	Innings
0.545	Sully08
0.531	derbyshire fan
0.517	tigerburnie
0.413	Tony Taff

Average 0.650

 
Re: League Table Predictions
derbyshire fan (IP Logged)
23 September, 2018 19:37
Thanks for the update - I am steadily moving towards last place; but to be honest, with Sarries playing like they are, I don’t really mind!

 
Re: League Table Predictions
TonyTaff (IP Logged)
24 September, 2018 13:29
A certain editor is a pillar of strength, holding up the rest of you!



£676.97 (*) donated to the Saracens Foundation due to visits to the Sarries frontpage [www.rugbynetwork.net]

Please read and submit articles for publication. (*) As at October 31, 2017.

 
Re: League Table Predictions
Sara'sman (IP Logged)
30 September, 2018 15:49
Round 5 ...

… sees our first joint leaders as the podium squatting trio shuffle positions once more and the average of our coefficients falls again.

0.839	The Bard
0.839	Waldo
0.825	JO'G
0.783	Odds Checker
0.713	Roger G
0.706	4everhopePhil
0.699	duchessmalfi
0.692	Our Average
0.671	Sara'sman
0.671	whyisitnevereasy
0.643	OhMaroItoje
0.643	Squawker2
0.636	Bath Hammer
0.636	BathMatt53
0.622	vunipolae
0.615	Barty II
0.601	AP
0.594	Duncan Keene
0.594	Darraghgirl
0.587	Maroon Tyke
0.573	robtheh
0.573	Sully08
0.552	RobP74
0.545	Gryff
0.545	OverTheBorder
0.517	maynas
0.497	Innings
0.497	derbyshire fan
0.462	tigerburnie
0.441	Tony Taff

Average 0.627

 
Re: League Table Predictions
Squawker2 (IP Logged)
30 September, 2018 18:48
Perhaps this should be suggested to some of the major betting companies as a new form - an overall season "place" bet, say needing a coefficient of over 0.800 to win?

Thanks for the stats - very interesting to read. I'm interested to see how my single point overall guess here compares to my week by week predictions on GP.



-----------------------------------------------------

Stuart Barnes is a Cock Womble

 
Re: League Table Predictions
duchessmalfi (IP Logged)
01 October, 2018 08:15
Thanks for putting all the effort into this! Interesting to keep an eye on throughout the season.

 
Re: League Table Predictions
Innings (IP Logged)
01 October, 2018 09:52
Thank goodness I prefer writing up matches to predicting them!



Innings

Points win matches: tries win hearts and minds.

 
Re: League Table Predictions
Sara'sman (IP Logged)
01 October, 2018 11:01
O/T post warning!

It may interest some to understand what is “costing” them in their coefficient and why just one team moving closer to their predicted position could significantly improve their prospects. The formula relies on the sum of the 12 values of d 2, where each d is the difference between the actual and predicted team's position. Each increase by one “costs” 0.0035.

If we take vunipolae as an example, their differences are currently (from Bath to Worcester):
1, -1, 1, 2, -7, 0, 3, -1, 6, -1, -1, -2
Ten decent, small numbers, spoilt by Quins and Sale, an effect that is exaggerated since these numbers are squared to:
1, 1, 1, 4, 49, 0, 9, 1, 36, 1, 1, 4
Thus ten clubs have cost him/her only 23, but the other two cost 85 (both x 0.0035), 3.7 times as much as the ten added together. If Quins or Sale move closer to vunipolae's prediction their coefficient should improve significantly. [e.g. when Quins drop 5 places their “cost” falls from 49 to just 4 (72 to 22).]

My limited (largely self taught) understanding of the subject is that the frequent squaring of values in statistical calculations has both advantages and negative consequences. In our example it exaggerates the effect of individual large differences, but is a necessary evil in order to make computation simple (it is difficult mathematically to ignore negative signs which would be “fairer”) and to enable statistical models/theory to be developed.

In essence, I'm suggesting that the coefficient is more a measure of the least bad, rather than the most accurate!

 
Re: League Table Predictions
TonyTaff (IP Logged)
02 October, 2018 03:21
Quote:
Sara'sman
O/T post warning!
It may interest some to understand what is “costing” them in their coefficient and why just one team moving closer to their predicted position could significantly improve their prospects. The formula relies on the sum of the 12 values of d 2, where each d is the difference between the actual and predicted team's position. Each increase by one “costs” 0.0035.

If we take vunipolae as an example, their differences are currently (from Bath to Worcester):
1, -1, 1, 2, -7, 0, 3, -1, 6, -1, -1, -2
Ten decent, small numbers, spoilt by Quins and Sale, an effect that is exaggerated since these numbers are squared to:
1, 1, 1, 4, 49, 0, 9, 1, 36, 1, 1, 4
Thus ten clubs have cost him/her only 23, but the other two cost 85 (both x 0.0035), 3.7 times as much as the ten added together. If Quins or Sale move closer to vunipolae's prediction their coefficient should improve significantly. [e.g. when Quins drop 5 places their “cost” falls from 49 to just 4 (72 to 22).]

My limited (largely self taught) understanding of the subject is that the frequent squaring of values in statistical calculations has both advantages and negative consequences. In our example it exaggerates the effect of individual large differences, but is a necessary evil in order to make computation simple (it is difficult mathematically to ignore negative signs which would be “fairer”) and to enable statistical models/theory to be developed.

In essence, I'm suggesting that the coefficient is more a measure of the least bad, rather than the most accurate!

That's made me feel better. It's the absence of a mathematical formula using the moduli of the differences that has sent me to the bottom!



£676.97 (*) donated to the Saracens Foundation due to visits to the Sarries frontpage [www.rugbynetwork.net]

Please read and submit articles for publication. (*) As at October 31, 2017.

 
Re: League Table Predictions
Maroon Tyke (IP Logged)
02 October, 2018 08:05
0.727 Our Average

Average 0.650

Why the difference?

 
Re: League Table Predictions
Sara'sman (IP Logged)
02 October, 2018 08:46
Quote:
Maroon Tyke
0.727 Our Average
Average 0.650

Why the difference?

If we take the average of our predictions, we have chosen Exeter top, Sarries second, Wasps third, ... Worcester 12th (see the third post on this page). This tends to smooth out all of the "wilder" guesses we have made individually (and is pretty close to the Bookies aka "Odds Checker"). I added a phantom poster "Our Average".

Individually, many of us have had a wild guess or two (mine is Sale!). Perhaps because of the squaring, the failure of most of these exaggerates their "cost" to us individually, so many of us take a bashing over one or two bad choices (generally smoothed out for "Our Average") resulting in a lower average of our coefficients.

Hope this makes sense - I thought it might cause some confusion which is why I omitted it in Round 1.

 
Re: League Table Predictions
Sara'sman (IP Logged)
07 October, 2018 18:30
Round 6

With the Premiership heading into its first recess there is no change to our top 4 for this and the following five weeks. Perhaps the rest of us can take some consolation from the fact that second placed and consistently strong The Bard currently has no team in the correct position! I'll dig this thread out from Rugbynetwork's bowels when the Premiership returns with the next block of 3 games, the first during the AIs, the second in the extra AI week. Congratulations to Waldo on making the top spot his own.

0.818	Waldo
0.804	The Bard
0.797	JO'G
0.755	Odds Checker
0.713	Our Average
0.713	Duncan Keene
0.706	OhMaroItoje
0.699	4everhopePhil
0.671	RobP74
0.657	whyisitnevereasy
0.650	Sara'sman
0.650	duchessmalfi
0.650	Maroon Tyke
0.650	Roger G
0.650	Barty II
0.650	OverTheBorder
0.643	robtheh
0.636	Bath Hammer
0.636	BathMatt53
0.636	AP
0.636	Darraghgirl
0.629	vunipolae
0.615	Squawker2
0.566	Gryff
0.552	Sully08
0.510	derbyshire fan
0.503	tigerburnie
0.497	maynas
0.448	Tony Taff
0.427	Innings

Average 0.639

 
Re: League Table Predictions
AP (IP Logged)
07 October, 2018 18:40
"Perhaps the rest of us can take some consolation from the fact that second placed and consistently strong The Bard currently has no team in the correct position!"

I remember a quiz night many years ago where the special round required you to place the bridges across the Thames in the right order, with half a point for each correct one. We got nearly all of them in the correct sequence but one in disastrously the wrong place which meant we scored very little.

Clearly the scoring system was not sophisticated enough!



Successful hills are here to stay
Everything must be this way
Gentle streets where people play
Welcome to the Soft Parade

 
Re: League Table Predictions
Squawker2 (IP Logged)
07 October, 2018 19:04
As well as a slow shift for the last few weeks for me (Newcastle is costing me 49 points) towards the bottom the group stats are interesting.

Worcester's win is costing an average of 24 points to every participant - not sure how much that drops our coefficient!



-----------------------------------------------------

Stuart Barnes is a Cock Womble

 
Re: League Table Predictions
TonyTaff (IP Logged)
08 October, 2018 15:55
I have risen from the bottom! Replaced by Innings.

If only the rest of you penned some articles, your scores would plunge below ours!



£676.97 (*) donated to the Saracens Foundation due to visits to the Sarries frontpage [www.rugbynetwork.net]

Please read and submit articles for publication. (*) As at October 31, 2017.

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