Here's the table as it stands:
And here's the table for form (for this phase of the season):
Just a reminder that tables are decided by league points > wins > points difference > points scored > aggregate
Leicester:
Northant.s:
Saracens:
L.Irish:
Wasps:
Bath:
Harlequins:
Gloucester:
Newcastle:
Sale:
Leeds:
Worcester:
A man who cannot change his mind, cannot change anything
RAEBURN SHIELD
Edited 14 time(s). Last edit at 18/04/2010 18:02 by Which Tyler.
Pos Team Pl W BP PD Pts 1 Leicester 20 14 10 207 68 2 Northant.s 19 15 5 128 65 3 Saracens 20 13 7 103 61 4 Wasps 20 12 5 7 53 5 L.Irish 20 10 6 123 52 6 Bath 19 9 7 31 47 7 Harlequins 20 8 5 -61 41 8 Gloucester 20 8 6 -2 40 9 Leeds 20 6 6 -176 32 10 Newcastle 20 5 4 -110 32 11 Sale 20 6 5 -145 31 12 Worcester 20 3 6 -105 26
And here's the table for form (for this phase of the season):
Form Team Pl W D L BP Pts 1 Leicester 4 4 0 0 3 19 2 Northant.s 4 4 0 0 1 17 3 Saracens 4 3 0 1 3 15 4 Bath 4 3 0 1 1 13 5 Wasps 4 2 0 2 2 10 6 Harlequins 4 2 0 2 1 9 7 L.Irish 4 2 0 2 1 9 8 Gloucester 4 1 0 3 1 5 9 Leeds 4 1 0 3 1 5 10 Sale 4 1 0 3 0 4 11 Newcastle 4 1 0 3 0 4 12 Worcester 4 0 0 4 1 1
Just a reminder that tables are decided by league points > wins > points difference > points scored > aggregate
Leicester:
Loc Team Pos Pts Form H Harlequins 8 41 6 H Saracens 3 61 3
Northant.s:
A Bath 6 47 4 H Saracens 3 61 3 A L.Irish 5 52 7
Saracens:
A Northant.s 2 65 2 A Leicester 1 68 1
L.Irish:
A Gloucester 7 40 8 H Northant.s 2 65 2
Wasps:
N Bath 6 47 4 A Newcastle 9 32 11
Bath:
H Northant.s 2 60 2 N Wasps 4 53 5 H Leeds 11 32 9
Harlequins:
A Leicester 1 68 1 H Sale 9 31 10
Gloucester:
H L.Irish 5 52 7 A Worcester 12 26 12
Newcastle:
A Sale 9 31 10 H Wasps 4 53 5
Sale:
H Newcastle 9 32 11 A Harlequins 8 41 6
Leeds:
H Worcester 12 26 12 A Bath 6 47 4
Worcester:
A Leeds 11 32 9 H Gloucester 7 40 8
RAEBURN SHIELD
Edited 14 time(s). Last edit at 18/04/2010 18:02 by Which Tyler.
Hey WT, that is a good piece of work!
I believe that we will end up with 58 points this season. Perhaps I should be called optimist!
Now in the last 4 years that points total has not been good enough to be in the play-offs, but this season, I just think it might be!
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 01/03/2010 17:41 by Hamptonite.
I believe that we will end up with 58 points this season. Perhaps I should be called optimist!
Now in the last 4 years that points total has not been good enough to be in the play-offs, but this season, I just think it might be!
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 01/03/2010 17:41 by Hamptonite.
i got to 58 also on the assumption we stay fairly injury free. probably still wouldnt be enough for top 4 though.
Good work, Which Tyler. I feel optimistic about our final seven. If Wasps play like they did against Leeds we should be able to win the last three.
after our pre - christmas , i will happily take a top 6 finish , it would be good to finish in the pay offs but will not be dissapointed if we dont !
COME ON YOU BATH
!!!!!!!
BATH, BATH, WHEREVER WE MAY BE WE ARE THE BOYS FROM THE WEST COUNTRY , AND WE'LL BEAT YOU ALL WHOEVER YOU MAY BE , BEAT YOU ALL FOR THE WEST COUNTRY !
Mike-s, in exile in Bridgwater
COME ON YOU BATH
!!!!!!!
BATH, BATH, WHEREVER WE MAY BE WE ARE THE BOYS FROM THE WEST COUNTRY , AND WE'LL BEAT YOU ALL WHOEVER YOU MAY BE , BEAT YOU ALL FOR THE WEST COUNTRY !
Mike-s, in exile in Bridgwater
Re: GP Run-In (and current form) - All Clubs
purplepatch
(IP Logged)
01 March, 2010 20:55
It seems to me that we have forgotten that it may not be enough to qualify for thr HC by finishing in the top 6.Remember that teams can qualify for the HC by winning the LV Cup and the Amlin ? - so if teams outside of the top 6 eg Glaws and Wuss were to win the LV and Amlin respectively that would leave only 4 places available for next season's HC.Of course if we were to be awarded the 7th slot it would ease matters somewhat.
reckon it'll be welsh team win the edf and reckon connacht could take the amlin ch cup !!
COME ON YOU BATH
!!!!!!!
BATH, BATH, WHEREVER WE MAY BE WE ARE THE BOYS FROM THE WEST COUNTRY , AND WE'LL BEAT YOU ALL WHOEVER YOU MAY BE , BEAT YOU ALL FOR THE WEST COUNTRY !
Mike-s, in exile in Bridgwater
COME ON YOU BATH
!!!!!!!
BATH, BATH, WHEREVER WE MAY BE WE ARE THE BOYS FROM THE WEST COUNTRY , AND WE'LL BEAT YOU ALL WHOEVER YOU MAY BE , BEAT YOU ALL FOR THE WEST COUNTRY !
Mike-s, in exile in Bridgwater
No, neither will I. After that start I'll be glad when we don't get relegated. Hopefully our opening game of next season will be my dream, i.e. against Exeter in the Premiership, and not in the Championship as I once feared.
Suddenly everything seems wide open and nobody is unbeatable.
Good to see that we are the no 1 team for form.
It seems to be a season which will probably run to the final day in terms of qualifications for Europe / Championship play-off positions and also the releagation battle.
Good to see that we are the no 1 team for form.
It seems to be a season which will probably run to the final day in terms of qualifications for Europe / Championship play-off positions and also the releagation battle.
Purplepatch - challenge cup comes with its own place. Not sure about LV
Stuart
Former ed.
Stuart
Former ed.
When you look at the rest of Exeter's season you realise how simple things are for us. I feel really sorry for Championship supporters, you know. A lot of great old clubs are having a tough time financially (not Exeter), and now they have this ludicrous rip-off system of two different leagues, a one match winner-takes-all semi-final, and then a two-match final.
Form means nothing when the next game kicks off.
Someone mentioned a while back that 6th place may not be good enough this season because the criteria have changed slightly but I can't remember exactly why unfortunately.
Nothing's changed in the format to qualify for the HC; it just depends on how well other English clubs do in the various competitions.
If an English club (only Saints left in it, away to Munster) wins the HC, then 7 English clubs qualify, otherwise 6 do.
Of those 6/7 teams, the first 4 in the GP qualify by right.
If an English team wins the HC, then they qualify for the GP by right, regardless of where they come in the GP (unless they get relegated).
If an English team wins the Amlin (Newcastle, Wasps and Glos still in it), then they qualify for the HC by right, regardless of where they come in the GP (unless they get relegated).
If an English team wins the LV= (Saints, Glaws and Sarries still in it), then they qualify for the HC by right, regardless of where they come in the GP (unless they get relegated).
If either of those latter 2 doesn't occur, then their place go to 5th from the GP (or 6th, if Saints win the HC). if neither occurs, then their places go to 5th and 6th in the GP (or 7th, if Saints win the HC).
A man who cannot change his mind, cannot change anything
RAEBURN SHIELD
If an English club (only Saints left in it, away to Munster) wins the HC, then 7 English clubs qualify, otherwise 6 do.
Of those 6/7 teams, the first 4 in the GP qualify by right.
If an English team wins the HC, then they qualify for the GP by right, regardless of where they come in the GP (unless they get relegated).
If an English team wins the Amlin (Newcastle, Wasps and Glos still in it), then they qualify for the HC by right, regardless of where they come in the GP (unless they get relegated).
If an English team wins the LV= (Saints, Glaws and Sarries still in it), then they qualify for the HC by right, regardless of where they come in the GP (unless they get relegated).
If either of those latter 2 doesn't occur, then their place go to 5th from the GP (or 6th, if Saints win the HC). if neither occurs, then their places go to 5th and 6th in the GP (or 7th, if Saints win the HC).
RAEBURN SHIELD
Re: GP Run-In (and current form) - All Clubs
purplepatch
(IP Logged)
01 March, 2010 22:34
So as I said if 2 GP clubs outside of the top 6 win these 2 "subsidiary" competitions then there will be only 4 HC places up for grabs - unless Saints were to win the HC this season thus giving the GP an extra HC slot - simples
PP/WT, the rules have changed this season.
The Amlin now has its own spot independent of national allocations - if an English club win it that's an extra HC place on top of the regular 6 or 7.
There's no longer the Welsh/Italian playoff for the 24th spot in the HC, it goes to the Amlin winners.
The LV on the other hand does come out of the national allocation, but thet only comes into play if Glaws win it, and we know what they're like in finals.
An extra complication is that England can't have 8 qualifiers, so if Saints win the HC and an English team the AC, the the loser of the HC final qualifies.
Stuart
Former ed.
Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 01/03/2010 23:33 by TCM2007.
The Amlin now has its own spot independent of national allocations - if an English club win it that's an extra HC place on top of the regular 6 or 7.
There's no longer the Welsh/Italian playoff for the 24th spot in the HC, it goes to the Amlin winners.
The LV on the other hand does come out of the national allocation, but thet only comes into play if Glaws win it, and we know what they're like in finals.
An extra complication is that England can't have 8 qualifiers, so if Saints win the HC and an English team the AC, the the loser of the HC final qualifies.
Stuart
Former ed.
Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 01/03/2010 23:33 by TCM2007.
Yep these are the current rules (maximum 7 places for England and France):
HEINEKEN CUP QUALIFICATION
From the 2009/10 season both the Heineken Cup and Amlin Challenge Cup winners
will qualify automatically for the following season’s Heineken Cup and will each earn an
extra Heineken Cup spot for their countries – over and above their guaranteed
allocations.
However, England and France, who have six automatic places, will only be allowed a
maximum of seven teams, so if either country wins both the Heineken Cup and
Amlin Challenge Cup the second additional spot will pass on to the club with the
highest ERC European Ranking who has not already qualified from any of the other five
nations.
The changes mean that the Italian / Celtic League 24th Place Play-Off is no longer
required and the extra place earned by England this year, which was available to the
most successful nation from England, France or Italy, is also no longer applicable.
The 23rd and 24th Heineken Cup places will go to the nation(s) of the Heineken Cup and
Amlin Challenge Cup winners, with England and France capped on a maximum of
seven teams each.
HEINEKEN CUP QUALIFICATION
From the 2009/10 season both the Heineken Cup and Amlin Challenge Cup winners
will qualify automatically for the following season’s Heineken Cup and will each earn an
extra Heineken Cup spot for their countries – over and above their guaranteed
allocations.
However, England and France, who have six automatic places, will only be allowed a
maximum of seven teams, so if either country wins both the Heineken Cup and
Amlin Challenge Cup the second additional spot will pass on to the club with the
highest ERC European Ranking who has not already qualified from any of the other five
nations.
The changes mean that the Italian / Celtic League 24th Place Play-Off is no longer
required and the extra place earned by England this year, which was available to the
most successful nation from England, France or Italy, is also no longer applicable.
The 23rd and 24th Heineken Cup places will go to the nation(s) of the Heineken Cup and
Amlin Challenge Cup winners, with England and France capped on a maximum of
seven teams each.
If we win all our remaining matches, we should qualify yes?????? 
There some games that will be very helpful to us;
Leics (H) v LI
Leics (H) v Sarries
Saints (H) v Wasps
Saints (H) v Sarries
Saints (A) v LI
Sarries v Glos (H)
LI v Wasps (H)
LI v Glos (H)
Wasps (N) v Bath (N)
Wasps v Newcastle (H), I don't think that I would like to be going to Newcastle knowing that I had to win to get into the Top 41
Leics (H) v LI
Leics (H) v Sarries
Saints (H) v Wasps
Saints (H) v Sarries
Saints (A) v LI
Sarries v Glos (H)
LI v Wasps (H)
LI v Glos (H)
Wasps (N) v Bath (N)
Wasps v Newcastle (H), I don't think that I would like to be going to Newcastle knowing that I had to win to get into the Top 41
Irish have a horrid run in, don't they? 4th is definitely a possibility.
Right-o, being a bit bored at work, I've worked through some predictions here. I'm discounting Tigers from the race for the top four (on the assumption that they'll make it) and then looking at Saints down to Gloucester (I'm presuming Saints will make it too, but they have to play every team from 3rd to 7th so they play a huge part). I've been pretty stingy on bonus points, both winning and losing, but I end up with:
Saints 74pts
Sarries 62pts
Bath 59pts
Irish 56pts
Gloucester 56pts
Wasps 55pts
The key fixture being the St George's day game between Wasps and Bath (which I've given to us). That result going the other way would move us to 7th and Wasps to 4th. Bonus points will obviously play a huge part, as well, but fundamentally if we want to make the play offs we can probably only afford to lose once in the run in (@ Tigers being the obvious candidate). Win all our games and we'll almost certainly make it.
Saints 74pts
Sarries 62pts
Bath 59pts
Irish 56pts
Gloucester 56pts
Wasps 55pts
The key fixture being the St George's day game between Wasps and Bath (which I've given to us). That result going the other way would move us to 7th and Wasps to 4th. Bonus points will obviously play a huge part, as well, but fundamentally if we want to make the play offs we can probably only afford to lose once in the run in (@ Tigers being the obvious candidate). Win all our games and we'll almost certainly make it.
certainly think the key fixtures are wasps away and saints at home. if we win both and the only slip up is leic away i think we will make top 4.
The last GP Saturday will be interesting as always!
Sat 8th May 10 15:00
Bath Rugby v Leeds Carnegie
Harlequins v Sale Sharks
Leicester Tigers v Saracens
London Irish v Northampton Saints
Newcastle Falcons v London Wasps
Worcester Warriors v Gloucester Rugby
Sat 8th May 10 15:00
Bath Rugby v Leeds Carnegie
Harlequins v Sale Sharks
Leicester Tigers v Saracens
London Irish v Northampton Saints
Newcastle Falcons v London Wasps
Worcester Warriors v Gloucester Rugby
Saints have to play Wasps, Glaws, Sarries and Irish (as well as us) so we really want to cheer them on!
Can 4th even be attainable? 9 points seems like a good bit to make up.
Its been done before, 7 games (I think) to go and 5 points for a 4 try win
We've made up more than that on Sarries and (I think) Irish in the last 7 games
Stuart
Former ed.
Stuart
Former ed.
Its certainly interesting.
Gloucs and Newcastle are the main issues to us in depriving the top 6 of HEC places (as the other possible English winners are ahead of us in the top 6 already).
To have both win would be pretty unlikely though, but the risk of 1 winning is more significant - so I think a top 5 place should be enough and if we win our next few matches and beat Wasps when we play them that should put us in position for this.
In terms of predicting what points total is required for a top 4 or 6 I'm wondering how the points totals are at this point of the season compared to last season (my gut feeling is that they are lower) - we could then use this as a predictor. However at the moment haven't got the time to look. Are there any stattos out there who can enlighten me?
Matt Banahan 2010-11 adoptee
Focusing on the backs after 3 years of successful front row adoption
Gloucs and Newcastle are the main issues to us in depriving the top 6 of HEC places (as the other possible English winners are ahead of us in the top 6 already).
To have both win would be pretty unlikely though, but the risk of 1 winning is more significant - so I think a top 5 place should be enough and if we win our next few matches and beat Wasps when we play them that should put us in position for this.
In terms of predicting what points total is required for a top 4 or 6 I'm wondering how the points totals are at this point of the season compared to last season (my gut feeling is that they are lower) - we could then use this as a predictor. However at the moment haven't got the time to look. Are there any stattos out there who can enlighten me?
Matt Banahan 2010-11 adoptee
Focusing on the backs after 3 years of successful front row adoption
Read my lips - the Challenge Cup gets its own place. Newcastle winning it will not affect 6th place qualifying.
Stuart
Former ed.
Stuart
Former ed.
So top 5 would guarantee a place regardless of what happens in the LV - which means Glouc could be a worry in the event that we don't progress further up the table.
Matt Banahan 2010-11 adoptee
Focusing on the backs after 3 years of successful front row adoption
Matt Banahan 2010-11 adoptee
Focusing on the backs after 3 years of successful front row adoption
Quote:but thet only comes into play if Glaws win it, and we know what they're like in finals.
Stuart we have a poor record in Premiership finals, but in the last 7 years we have played in 3 cup finals - two of which we've won. Last year's capitulation was also when the club/coaching staff was at it's lowest point for many years: things are very different now. So don't be too confident of us bottling it!
Quote:TCM2007
Read my lips - the Challenge Cup gets its own place. Newcastle winning it will not affect 6th place qualifying.
so you're saying that if Saints, Newcastle and Glaws win the HC, ECC and AWC respectively, then a top 6 place is still enough to get into Europe? (even if only Saints finish in the top 6 from those)
I still disagree.
RAEBURN SHIELD
If those three clubs are in the top 6 then 4 other clubs can qualify. So theoretically 7th place can qualify!
England and France get an extra place for either winning the HC or the ECC.
England and France get an extra place for either winning the HC or the ECC.
England and France get 6 places each but get an extra place (maximum is 7) if an English or French team win the HC or the Challenge Cup. If an English team wins both the HC and the Challenge cup they get 7 places and the HC and CC winner will be two of them. The Anglo Welsh winner if English will get a third place. If these 3 teams are also in the top 6 of the GP then 4 other teams will qualify in order of how they finished in the GP.
I need to lie down now!
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/03/2010 18:13 by CoochieCoo.
I need to lie down now!
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/03/2010 18:13 by CoochieCoo.
To try and summarise (I think!):
if Falcons, Wasps or Glaws win Amlin CC they qualify for HC but England get an extra place
Ditto if Saints win the HC.
So only (in unliklely event) that both happen and Saints also fail to make top 6, will this affect top 6 HC qualification as England are capped at 7 places.
Then we need to look at LV= Cup. Saints / Sarries / Glaws can all book a HC place via this route, and if they do it would come out of the existing 6 (or 7 if above occurs) England allocation. Of these Saints and Sarries are very likely to be in top 6 anyway. But if Glaws win but fail to make top 6, and also fail to win Amlin CC then it would be down to top 5 in GP.
Therefore Top 5 guarantees a HC place, Top 6 would be very likely, and Top 7 is possible.
All clear??
if Falcons, Wasps or Glaws win Amlin CC they qualify for HC but England get an extra place
Ditto if Saints win the HC.
So only (in unliklely event) that both happen and Saints also fail to make top 6, will this affect top 6 HC qualification as England are capped at 7 places.
Then we need to look at LV= Cup. Saints / Sarries / Glaws can all book a HC place via this route, and if they do it would come out of the existing 6 (or 7 if above occurs) England allocation. Of these Saints and Sarries are very likely to be in top 6 anyway. But if Glaws win but fail to make top 6, and also fail to win Amlin CC then it would be down to top 5 in GP.
Therefore Top 5 guarantees a HC place, Top 6 would be very likely, and Top 7 is possible.
All clear??
Quote:Which TylerQuote:TCM2007
Read my lips - the Challenge Cup gets its own place. Newcastle winning it will not affect 6th place qualifying.
so you're saying that if Saints, Newcastle and Glaws win the HC, ECC and AWC respectively, then a top 6 place is still enough to get into Europe? (even if only Saints finish in the top 6 from those)
I still disagree.
In the incredibly unlike event that all three won, and Glaws and Newcastle finished outside the top 6, then 6th would not qualify.
I might place an accumulator on that, as the £000s it would pay out would make up for the disappointment!
Glaws are 7/2 to win the LV
Newcastle are 10/1 to win the Challenge Cup
Saints are 20/1 to win the HC
In fact it's only Glaws winning the LV and no English team winning a European competion we have to worry about really.
Stuart
Former ed.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/03/2010 18:58 by TCM2007.
not going to even attempt to understand this. could someone just clarify that its very unlikely 7th would be good enough, very likely 6th would be good enough, and very very likely that 5th would be good enough?
Yes, although the circumstances where 5th wouldn't qualify are so stunningly unlikely as to require an Infinite Improbability Drive to make them happen (English teams win all three cups, all three cup winners finish 6th or below)
Stuart
Former ed.
Stuart
Former ed.
thanks stuart. 5th is very realistic and should see us in then.
yep, basically, 5th will be good enough; 6th would probably be good enough; 7th may, just about, be good enough.
The rest is mental masturbation
A man who cannot change his mind, cannot change anything
RAEBURN SHIELD
The rest is mental masturbation
RAEBURN SHIELD
Quote:In the incredibly unlike event that all three won, and Glaws and Newcastle finished outside the top 6, then 6th would not qualify.
They would if Newcastle was relegated!
Right, I've adjusted my predictions given this weekend's results and it has really tightened things up and brought 3rd place into play now!
Current prediction:
Saints 73pts
Saracens 59pts
Wasps 59pts
Bath 59pts
Irish 56pts
Gloucester 53pts
Again, I've been pretty sparse with my awarding of bonus points which become even more important now! The other key is that both Sarries and Wasps have won three more games than us - we're not gonna catch that up in the 6 remaining (especially with a trip to Welford Road upcoming). We then have to make sure we pick up bonus points where possible to make the top four.
Current prediction:
Saints 73pts
Saracens 59pts
Wasps 59pts
Bath 59pts
Irish 56pts
Gloucester 53pts
Again, I've been pretty sparse with my awarding of bonus points which become even more important now! The other key is that both Sarries and Wasps have won three more games than us - we're not gonna catch that up in the 6 remaining (especially with a trip to Welford Road upcoming). We then have to make sure we pick up bonus points where possible to make the top four.
We could make it up on Sarries, who haven't won for some time now.
Leicester in 7th, Hasta?
Leicester cruising to top two so I'm not even bothering! Saints only there because they play everyone from 3rd to 7th in the run-in (and mostly at home).
Malco the only way we'd make it up on them is by them losing even more than I'm expecting - in which case we'll finish above them anyway! But I agree that they're in trouble now...
I think I'm right in saying that Not-Nots are the only team not to get a point this weekend, whilst Tigers got the only try bonus point of the weekend against them. So five out of six games settled by less than one score. It's very tight out there right now!
Edit - Sorry, forgot Sale, who could have had a BP with the last kick. (For some reason the BBC sport website isn't showing that result yet). Anyway, it's still very tight, is my point.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/03/2010 18:10 by Miles Offside.
Edit - Sorry, forgot Sale, who could have had a BP with the last kick. (For some reason the BBC sport website isn't showing that result yet). Anyway, it's still very tight, is my point.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/03/2010 18:10 by Miles Offside.
Graphic in Sky game said we have the best away record in the league - perhaps all our home games are not an advantage after all...
Stuart
Former ed.
Stuart
Former ed.
Hopefully WR will change all that!
Original post updated after this weekend's matches
A man who cannot change his mind, cannot change anything
RAEBURN SHIELD
RAEBURN SHIELD
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