For, you know, ships and giggles, I've done a bit of analysis on the outstanding schedule of each remaining team. I've assigned values based on (current) position of opponent and applied a home/away factor based on home/away wins this season in the Prem. Results are below (lower score indicates easier schedule):
1. It's going to be an absolute dog-fight between us, Tigers and Chiefs for the 3/4th spots.
2. Saints are artificially high at the moment, their schedule has been very favourable.
3. All is not lost for Wuss, despite recent form..
4. Sale are in genuine danger of being drawn further into the relegation scrap.
If I get the chance/am really bored I may update the model for form/6 Nations impact.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/01/2017 23:23 by hasta.
Can't really argue with the stats and records, however, if you look at the performance of Worcs and Sale at the weekend they are a serious threat. Hougaard and Gold at Worcs making a difference and Solomona on fire at Sale. Nice analysis Hasta but those 2 might skew the results.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 20/02/2017 09:14 by shipwrecked.
I like this Hasta, good work. My only concern is whether the key game against Tigers is actually 'home' or not as based on these numbers we are almost identical already. I guess a 'neutral' hybrid weighting means we are neck and neck?
Also it does ignore the better weather to favour running teams and things like Tigers being out of Europe and us not yet. As we all know, the last couple of games will be defined by the teams fighting at the top and bottom of the table and the mid table mediocrity who may not really have much to play for (e.g. away at Worcs could be a nothing game for them or a relegation scrap). I have to say I don't like the look of Sale away on the last day of the season with them potentially fighting for a Euro place.
Looks like Chiefs tough start to the season has worked for them.
I certainly don't care whether we're 3rd or 4th, because picking which one you prefer of Sarries or Wasps away is a futile exercise. I slightly don't care if we make 3rd/4th, as long as we make top 6, because it's little more than an opportunity to be disappointed.
Unless, unless, unless - our injury list miraculously disappears and we are not only in position to field our strongest 23 for the semi-final, but also in a position to field our strongest starting 15 for a couple of warm-up games. Yes, there'd be hope - but even then we'd start as long-shots.
And even then - unless we get very serious prop and hooker injury replacement toot sweet - our front row won't frighten Wasps or Sarries at any stage of the game.
I hope we keep on winning our games this season - but only for the sake of winning and enjoying each individual result, rather than harbouring hopes that we are yet the finished article.
Point of this analysis, Opti, is that I think it's more likely that Chiefs will get second. But I roughly agree with you, I'd just like us to demonstrate a bit more progress in game plan (and get some players back on the pitch). We've got a few 'big' games: Wasps Home, Sarries Away, Tigers at the clash. Win 2/3 and we're odds on for top four (and would deserve it). 1/3 and we're hanging on by a thread. 0/3 and forget about it.
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