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hasta (IP Logged)

Strength of Schedule
09 January, 2017 23:20
For, you know, ships and giggles, I've done a bit of analysis on the outstanding schedule of each remaining team. I've assigned values based on (current) position of opponent and applied a home/away factor based on home/away wins this season in the Prem. Results are below (lower score indicates easier schedule):

Exeter          56.5
Tigers          63.6
Bath            69.4
Sarries         74.4
Newcastle       76.7
Wasps           78.5
Worcester       87
Glaws           92.8
Bristol         93.2
Quins           94
Sale            96.8
Saints          97.2

A few thoughts:

1. It's going to be an absolute dog-fight between us, Tigers and Chiefs for the 3/4th spots.
2. Saints are artificially high at the moment, their schedule has been very favourable.
3. All is not lost for Wuss, despite recent form..
4. Sale are in genuine danger of being drawn further into the relegation scrap.

If I get the chance/am really bored I may update the model for form/6 Nations impact.

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/01/2017 23:23 by hasta.

by (IP Logged)

Re: Strength of Schedule
09 January, 2017 23:42
Good work.

Bath Hammer
Bath Hammer (IP Logged)

Re: Strength of Schedule
10 January, 2017 00:04
The fact that Tigers & Chiefs both have slightly easier schedules than us isn't good news. Those last to defeats snatched from the jaws of victory could be our undoing & their gain.

hasta (IP Logged)

Re: Strength of Schedule
20 February, 2017 09:06
Updating this with 7 games left... strength of schedule remaining (lower number is 'easier') based on current table positions.

Chiefs 45.5
Wasps 56.6
Bath 58.6
Tigers 61.8
Sarries 66.8
Newcastle 69.9
Worcester 70.9
Quins 76.7
Glaws 77
Bristol 77.8
Saints 78.9
Sale 83.2

Chiefs still look to have a huge schedule advantage for top four. Newcastle definitely have a shot at 6th.

Boldngrey (IP Logged)

Re: Strength of Schedule
20 February, 2017 09:10

Can I really believe if Sarries regain their form they will only make 4th?

shipwrecked (IP Logged)

Re: Strength of Schedule
20 February, 2017 09:13
Can't really argue with the stats and records, however, if you look at the performance of Worcs and Sale at the weekend they are a serious threat. Hougaard and Gold at Worcs making a difference and Solomona on fire at Sale. Nice analysis Hasta but those 2 might skew the results.

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 20/02/2017 09:14 by shipwrecked.

hasta (IP Logged)

Re: Strength of Schedule
20 February, 2017 09:15
Not at all - this is just the remaining strength of teams they play against - not a ranking of where teams might definitely finish.

I do think that Chiefs have a really good shot at top 2 now though - both them and Sarries on equal points and a substantially easier schedule.

hasta (IP Logged)

Re: Strength of Schedule
20 February, 2017 09:17
Agreed, shipwrecked, recent form isn't taken into consideration. 6N impact either.

BathMatt53 (IP Logged)

Re: Strength of Schedule
20 February, 2017 09:28
I like this Hasta, good work. My only concern is whether the key game against Tigers is actually 'home' or not as based on these numbers we are almost identical already. I guess a 'neutral' hybrid weighting means we are neck and neck?

Also it does ignore the better weather to favour running teams and things like Tigers being out of Europe and us not yet. As we all know, the last couple of games will be defined by the teams fighting at the top and bottom of the table and the mid table mediocrity who may not really have much to play for (e.g. away at Worcs could be a nothing game for them or a relegation scrap). I have to say I don't like the look of Sale away on the last day of the season with them potentially fighting for a Euro place.

Looks like Chiefs tough start to the season has worked for them.

Bath Supporter Jack

Re: Strength of Schedule
20 February, 2017 09:50
Great analysis!

I have just looked through the remaining fixtures and more than usual had "well maybe" and "mmmmmh could be".......sadly apart from Saracens versus Bristol!

I think it is going to be very tight between Bath and Leicester for 4th place.

Better this than the other thing which we were doing in the 2002/03 season!!!!

hasta (IP Logged)

Re: Strength of Schedule
20 February, 2017 09:53
Home/Away weighting is based on the number of home vs away wins in the Prem this season (57 vs 28 with 5 draws). OK, I've tweaked this based on points rather than position in the table:

Chiefs 275.9
Wasps 334.5
Bath 355.9
Tigers 356.3
Sarries 382.5
Newcastle 391.1
Bristol 410.2
Worcester 418.5
Saints 418.8
Gloucester 422.4
Quins 423.2
Sale 457.3

A bit of shuffling in the bottom 6, Tigers and us even closer. If you classify the Clash as away for us or neutral for both then we'd flip.

Optimist (IP Logged)

Re: Strength of Schedule
20 February, 2017 09:55
I certainly don't care whether we're 3rd or 4th, because picking which one you prefer of Sarries or Wasps away is a futile exercise. I slightly don't care if we make 3rd/4th, as long as we make top 6, because it's little more than an opportunity to be disappointed.

Unless, unless, unless - our injury list miraculously disappears and we are not only in position to field our strongest 23 for the semi-final, but also in a position to field our strongest starting 15 for a couple of warm-up games. Yes, there'd be hope - but even then we'd start as long-shots.

And even then - unless we get very serious prop and hooker injury replacement toot sweet - our front row won't frighten Wasps or Sarries at any stage of the game.

I hope we keep on winning our games this season - but only for the sake of winning and enjoying each individual result, rather than harbouring hopes that we are yet the finished article.

hasta (IP Logged)

Re: Strength of Schedule
20 February, 2017 10:03
Point of this analysis, Opti, is that I think it's more likely that Chiefs will get second. But I roughly agree with you, I'd just like us to demonstrate a bit more progress in game plan (and get some players back on the pitch). We've got a few 'big' games: Wasps Home, Sarries Away, Tigers at the clash. Win 2/3 and we're odds on for top four (and would deserve it). 1/3 and we're hanging on by a thread. 0/3 and forget about it.

Optimist (IP Logged)

Re: Strength of Schedule
20 February, 2017 10:12
Good point about Exeter - incredible that we are (both) just 2 points shy of Sarries at 2/3rds point of season! Who would have bet on that at the start of the season?

shipwrecked (IP Logged)

Re: Strength of Schedule
20 February, 2017 10:23
Or even mid season with out last minute slip ups!

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