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DanWiley
DanWiley (IP Logged)

O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 11:14
WTF?

 
MESSAGES->author
woodpecker (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 11:17
At least it signals the end of Corbyn



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 18/04/2017 11:17 by woodpecker.

 
MESSAGES->author
shipwrecked (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 11:19
Out though everyone then! No-one saw that coming. May announces snap election

 
DanWiley
DanWiley (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 11:22
Did you read our referendum thread? Quite a few of the likes of us saw it coming, some of us didn't think it would happen, but they accepted the possibility.

 
DanWiley
DanWiley (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 11:23
I should add, it should be a great move for May. It might well work out well for the LibDems. In the long run it might work well for labour in terms of pushing Corbyn out.

 
MESSAGES->author
woodpecker (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 11:25
Just listening to R5 a view that the tory headbangers won't like it as they are quite powerful at the moment, less so with a big majority

 
MESSAGES->author
shipwrecked (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 11:35
Quote:
DanWiley
Did you read our referendum thread? Quite a few of the likes of us saw it coming, some of us didn't think it would happen, but they accepted the possibility.

I turned off that thread when it became so nebulous it stopped being comment and resorted to personal attacks. As many political arguments do incidentally.

Recent political comment hasn't mentioned it in my sphere. I guess she is doing it for a mandate and to nullify the SNP. It does show she is an astute tactician, lets hope she uses those skills to get a good deal from the EU.

Wont both our election and the French election be close chronologically?



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 18/04/2017 11:38 by shipwrecked.

 
MESSAGES->author
woodpecker (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 11:39
What this will do is wash away all the bo11ocks about 'the people have spoken'

 
DanWiley
DanWiley (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 11:47
Maybe woodpecker, what result do you expect? I'd see May wiping the floor, with Labout* serious hurt and the LibDems picking up a lot of votes, if not seats, from "anyone who opposes leaving" voters.

In that case, those that want to leave will say "look we won (again)" and those that don't will say "but the lib dems who pretty much stood on remaining did very well." and the noise will continue.

* A typo, but an interesting one.


" It does show she is an astute tactician"

I'm not sure, the ostensible case for calling it, from her point of view, is reasonably obvious. I think we can all see it. It might not go the way she planned, in which case it would turn out to be a very poor choice.

 
Boldngrey
Boldngrey (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 11:49
Be interested to see what happens in the labour northern heartlands.

Disaffected Labour pro EU vote Lib. Disaffected Labour pro Brexit vote UKIP, dividing h Lab vote 3 ways.

Will there be enough Tory vote to cause an upset.

 
Boldngrey
Boldngrey (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 11:56
What is the point of voting Lib because of the EU?

The Tories are strong favourites so will get in and continue to implement Brexit.

 
DanWiley
DanWiley (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 11:57
"Disaffected Labour pro EU vote Lib. Disaffected Labour pro Brexit vote UKIP, dividing h Lab vote 3 ways. "

I think you can only really go one way or the other. Either its felt that Labour have essentially supported Brexit (which I do), in which case they won't lose many to UKIP (who are finished assuming the Tories make it a manifesto promise to leave, which given May's talk they surely have to?) Or you feel they have opposed Brexit, in which case they aren't going to jump ship on mass to the LDs. I don't think it can be both ways.

Labour are ruin though, as perceptions stand, as Corbyn is seen as unelectable by half his own party.

 
DanWiley
DanWiley (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 12:00
"What is the point of voting Lib because of the EU? "

If the LDs get even a small uplift in support, and they couldn't be much lower from the last GE, it does send a message.

 
westondave
WestonDave (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 12:03
I can see myself getting very bored of this pretty quickly - its only been an hour and the second guessing and media froth is getting tiresome.

Corbyn clearly thinks his army of hidden silent voters will do him better than anyone expects. May clearly thinks she'll wipe the floor with the others because neither Labour nor Lib Dems are viable alternatives. Farron reckons he'll do OK out of a anti hard Brexit vote.

Who knows. What recent elections have shown is that polling is very difficult where people find it hard to admit who they are voting for. That hid the Tory vote last time and may still show a Corbynite Labour seeming more popular (noisy social media support) than they actually are.

Personally having booked a week away just before this election in furthest Snowdonia with virtually no internet and no TV is looking one of the best decisions I've made in a long time.

 
MESSAGES->author
Which Tyler (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 12:26
Should have happened 6 months ago, or wait out the 3 years, utterly cynical attempt to maximise her advantage of Labour's fragmentation for personal benefit.

I really hope the gamble blows up in her face, but suspect we'll see a landslide victory for the Tories.

Further division is the absolute last thing we need a the moment, and exactly what we're about to get.



A man who cannot change his mind, cannot change anything
RAEBURN SHIELD


Beno Obano - 2016-17 adoptee
http://www.rugbyrebels.co/board/download/file.php?id=117

 
Substitute
Substitute (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 12:28
I think everyone knew a snap election was always on the table but I don't think anyone really expected it.

I think it is the last legacy of the Cameron government - an election he didn't expect to win which tied his, and now May's, hands with all kinds of stupid restrictions.

Yes, I can see 'wet' Tories (e.g. Heidi Alexander) hating this as they could block the government. I could see Tories in Con/Lib marginals being unhappy, because that vote was always going to recover (and the Brexit vote will help).

Otherwise I suspect the Conservative'will be happy - they should see a stronger vote and watch the Libs cannibalise the 'left' vote.

Not to mention it's a big distraction from the SNP's independence desire.

 
MESSAGES->author
woodpecker (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 12:31
Every time the wind blows towards a hard brexit, the pound falls, interestingly it just rose to €1.188

 
DanWiley
DanWiley (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 12:34
I think this is a open goal for the SNP. They were struggling a bit, all they need do now is say "we're staying" and they get an instance landslide. Not sure how that helps them stay in the union?

 
Southstand(again)
Southstand(again) (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 13:07
Will voting for "May in June" not be a backward step ?

 
Substitute
Substitute (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 13:18
Quote:
DanWiley
I think this is a open goal for the SNP. They were struggling a bit, all they need do now is say "we're staying" and they get an instance landslide. Not sure how that helps them stay in the union?

It's a nothing goal for the SNP. They already have every seat north of the border bar 3. Most of those were landslides.

There hand in Scotland is already incredibly strong - it might get slightly stronger.

Bar one MP, it isn't going to affect the Tories.

In the unlikely case they lose seats, then it is incredibly damaging for them.

For the SNP there is a strong possibility of a little to win - but the chance of a lot to lose.

 
Substitute
Substitute (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 13:23
Quote:
woodpecker
Every time the wind blows towards a hard brexit, the pound falls, interestingly it just rose to €1.188

Interesting.

Small chance to silence the anti-EU backbenchers (interesting who the candidates selected to contest are).

Good chance of a Lib Dem gain.

Good chance of a Labour collapse.

I think it's unlikely to change May's negotiating hand. It might strengthen it. Reduces the risk of a disorderly leaving...

 
ade1865
Ade1865 (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 13:29
Do you not think its all just a way of taking the heat out of the NHS and Education fiascos?

 
DanWiley
DanWiley (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 13:40
It's a fairly risky one.

I thought SNP support was wavering prior to brexit? It's certainly something I was told on 'ere fairly recently in strong terms. If that's the case, brexit and this is just the shot in the arm they need for 5 more years, plus two landslides in a row for an independence seeking party, whatever the background, seems a strong argument in their favour.

 
Substitute
Substitute (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 13:49
Quote:
DanWiley
It's a fairly risky one.
I thought SNP support was wavering prior to brexit?

If it is wavering now there is no guarantee it's going to waver any more.

I don't think it will waver because a vote for the SNP, irrespective of whether you believe in independence, tends to mean more money, more power and more autonomy for Scotland (in an attempt to stave off independence).

By most measures the SNP have been bad for Scotland but it will take a long time to break that connection in voters minds - especially when the only plausible alternative has been Labour.

 
ChippenhamRoman
ChippenhamRoman (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 13:51
Ben for Bath out of a job?

 
Mike the Taxi
Mike the Taxi (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 13:57

 
MESSAGES->author
OutsideBath (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 14:02
I guess the remoaners have one option to reverse the referendum and that is to vote Liberal, be interested to see how many actually do so.

Big gamble by Theresa May if she's basing this decision on recent polls.



Chris Cook - Adopted player 2016/17

 
MESSAGES->author
hasta (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 14:02
I think it's quite likely the LibDems will pick up a few. More likely that the Tories will pick more up from Labour.

Still... it's quite a risk. The Tories have been in power for 7 years now and a lot of Labour seats are in very safe areas. Doing this before the boundary/number of MPs change is not fighting on ideal ground for May.

 
fat lock
fat lock (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 14:35
I think a big issue is it pushes the next election forward from 2020 to 2022.
This gives the Tories 2 more years to sort out the post Brexit fall out, and be in a better position to win that election.

The (un)civil war in the Labour Party will at least be a distraction to the gloom of Brexit.

 
MESSAGES->author
jayeatman (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 15:44
My take is that this will:
A. Cement Brexit: A new Tory government will have been elected on a pro-Brexit ticket rather than a (luke-warm) Remain one.
B. Accelerate the demise of Corbyn and either a post-Corbyn revival or a break up of the party.
C. Accelerate the recovery of the LibDems, although they are never going to go very far under Farron.
D. Cement the SNP's demand for a 2nd independence referendum.

Some side-effects:
D. No time to de-select Remainer Tory or Labour MPs.
E. No constituency border changes (another opportunity to deselect troublesome MPs).
F. No time for a 'progressive alliance' to get itself organised.
G. Kicks the issue of general election expense fraud by the Tories at the last election into the long grass for ever.
H. Brings forward the election after next by 3 years which realistically was always the first time we were going to get a non-Tory government.



BATH supporter since 1975

Adopted players:
2015/6 Tom Homer
2016/7 Matt Banahan

 
MESSAGES->author
hasta (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 16:09
I think those are all pretty solid bets, jayeatman. I would expect an expanded Tory majority to be the most likely event - particularly since the other major party leaders are so weak.

But it does seem like a gamble. The LibDems lost 26 seats to the Tories in 2015 - primarily in the South - a lot of them could be flipped back. Yes, Labour are weak, but FPTP democracy and tactical voting doesn't make this easy for May.

 
Substitute
Substitute (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 16:20
Quote:
hasta
Yes, Labour are weak, but FPTP democracy and tactical voting doesn't make this easy for May.

Indeed. Not to mention tribalism... a muted force during the EU referendum, it will be on display again.

 
MESSAGES->author
jayeatman (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 16:27
Yes, I'd expect the LibDems to gain back a few of those seats lost to the Tories in the S and SW but with the help of the UKIP vote, Con to more than make up for it by taking more seats off Labour elsewhere.



BATH supporter since 1975

Adopted players:
2015/6 Tom Homer
2016/7 Matt Banahan

 
DanWiley
DanWiley (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 17:02
My first reaction was WTF, but stepping back from that I'm actually looking forward to it(Though it is shamefully short notice and someone really should make that point). If I could detach myself from it, or rather the consequences of it, it would be a fascinating spectacle. Everywhere I look there's an interesting narrative.

There is an interesting back story in world politics at the moment.

Tories: This is a gamble, or is it? But if not, what makes win? Potentially, there's a landslide there, but does that create a different party from the one currently (I feel) pandering to its extreme. Britain desperately needs a strong party right now and it isn't going to be any other the others.

Labour: does he have this latent support in the country that he seems to feel he does or is his support just a union created mirage? If he doesn't have that support what happens? If he does have that support what happens?

Lib Dems: Surely they've got to do better? Can they capitalise on the remoaners? Can Farr... capture some sort of interest? What level of upturn would constitute a message? Is there another lib dem with any sort of leadership qualities?

UKIP: Are they going to reap their success or have they just played themselves out of the game?

Malco: how long can he stay off this thread?

 
Substitute
Substitute (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 17:18
Quote:
DanWiley
My first reaction was WTF, but stepping back from that I'm actually looking forward to it(Though it is shamefully short notice and someone really should make that point).

About par for the course for snap elections, I'm afraid.

Besides 8 weeks of reheated arguments is probably enough. Plenty of time to inform ourselves.

Not to mention that unlike during the referendum, normal order is restored and none of the main parties are going to lie during the election cycle...

 
MESSAGES->author
OutsideBath (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 17:21
Quote:
DanWiley
My first reaction was WTF, but stepping back from that I'm actually looking forward to it(Though it is shamefully short notice and someone really should make that point).

I don't think I could stomach more the 2 months of constant lies from our so called representatives trying to get our vote. Will any of them actually stick to their manifesto pledges? I think not.



Chris Cook - Adopted player 2016/17

 
Substitute
Substitute (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 17:22
Quote:
DanWiley

Tories: This is a gamble, or is it? But if not, what makes win? Potentially, there's a landslide there, but does that create a different party from the one currently (I feel) pandering to its extreme. Britain desperately needs a strong party right now and it isn't going to be any other the others.


I don't think this is especially about Brexit. She is overseeing a government that won't let her act.

Two weeks ago the Chancellor wanted a snap election (a definite remainer).

Making about Brexit sounds like just a distraction from accusations of cynicism and to rub it into Labour even more.

 
MESSAGES->author
BathMatt53 (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 17:23
Quote:
Southstand(again)
Will voting for "May in June" not be a backward step ?

I think that you will find that its actually forward thinking (by about 11 months)...

 
DanWiley
DanWiley (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 17:39
"I don't think this is especially about Brexit. She is overseeing a government that won't let her act. "

I heard this line. Explain who is stopping her from acting? Labour seem to be rolling a red carpet out for her and whilst both lib dems might like to stop her their power is limited.

 
MESSAGES->author
shipwrecked (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 17:49
Quote:
DanWiley
"I don't think this is especially about Brexit. She is overseeing a government that won't let her act. "
I heard this line. Explain who is stopping her from acting? Labour seem to be rolling a red carpet out for her and whilst both lib dems might like to stop her their power is limited.

She would be independent of Corbyn's whims, not only that if the leadership changed they might roll up the red carpet.

 
DanWiley
DanWiley (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 17:58
Maybe, but she can't currently say that they are stopping me, because they aren't. Even if they were, she has a majority.

This "She is overseeing a government that won't let her act. " just isn't true.

 
Substitute
Substitute (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 18:05
Quote:
DanWiley
"I don't think this is especially about Brexit. She is overseeing a government that won't let her act. "
I heard this line. Explain who is stopping her from acting? Labour seem to be rolling a red carpet out for her and whilst both lib dems might like to stop her their power is limited.

No government wants to rely on the opposition and she has a working majority of 17.

On grammar schools, on taxation a small rebellion has, can and would stop government action.

True, on passing the Brexit bill, Labour took the position that Article 50 should be triggered.

But in the final deal and - more significantly - the (great) repeal bill, Labour support is unlikely to be forthcoming and then it only takes a few Tories of the wet or dry variety and you have issues.

Not to mention there is little chance of Labour support on all non-Brexit issues. There is more to government than Brexit.

And then... There is the manifesto which is like a millstone round her and the Chancellor's neck. She wants to raise and spend money and that manifesto is a restriction.

 
Substitute
Substitute (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 18:12
Quote:
DanWiley
Maybe, but she can't currently say that they are stopping me, because they aren't. Even if they were, she has a majority.
This "She is overseeing a government that won't let her act. " just isn't true.

Parliament would have stopped her on Grammar schools and the manifesto has already overruled the Chancellor on NICs.

True, her government hasn't (publicly) stopped her but parliament certainly is stopping her government from acting in the way she wishes.

Stopping a vote for fear of defeat is causing the same effect as losing a vote.

 
Mike the Taxi
Mike the Taxi (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 18:32
Nicola Sturgeon - "I think the prime minister has called this election for selfish, narrow, party political interests, but she has called it and therefore I relish the prospect of getting out to stand up for Scotland's interests and values"!

 
Substitute
Substitute (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 21:22
Quote:
DanWiley
This "She is overseeing a government that won't let her act. " just isn't true.

Evidence suggests it is true.

(We're not just talking about Article 50 here).

 
MESSAGES->author
CoochieCoo (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 22:13
I predict a landslide! Tories will have difficulty in seating all their members on the Government benches!



http://zdgzqa.bay.livefilestore.com/y1p7Mwi7pLXeM89TY2KFdDQ-UUDGSv1FKNdhYdrW-koAuRN3tsqCPfE3onFxuO-3cZ0057Tom1uJai3vjkz3dvY_Q/1998%20Euro%20Champs.jpg http://zdgzqa.bay.livefilestore.com/y1pFul9UAV5zEXOzeRc1kmmlgDKXTYTIlTnGoQzYelH6KzdCeU-exN0IGo74QN2OGvlSoEiVjzAESvHx9BFlBsNFA/Bath%202008.jpg

 
DanWiley
DanWiley (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 23:22
"No government wants to rely on the opposition and she has a working majority of 17."

Well no, but if that's the only issue would you expect an almost unprecedented election?

Yes, she doesn't have an massive majority, but brexit aside, she would not be calling an election.

 
MESSAGES->author
shipwrecked (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
18 April, 2017 23:32
It's also about cabinet composition though, she would have a stronger hand if the EU knew she wouldn't have to compromise her approach to appease the cabinet and back benchers.

 
Substitute
Substitute (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
19 April, 2017 00:26
Quote:
DanWiley
"No government wants to rely on the opposition and she has a working majority of 17."
Well no, but if that's the only issue would you expect an almost unprecedented election?

Yes, she doesn't have an massive majority, but brexit aside, she would not be calling an election.

I think she would - as long as she had a reasonable chance of winning.

I'm sure her authority will benefit if it goes as planned.

However, no Brexit related event has coincided with this u-turn. There is nothing materially different to a month ago.

Meanwhile, the questions about campaign expenses, and potential by-elections, have reared their heads again. Cameron's manifesto has been reinforced while fellow Tories have voted to block grammar schools and her 'industrial strategy'. (Article 50 probably seems simple, in comparison).

If you could win a majority in those circumstances (and the indications are she would) why wouldn't you go for it, irrespective of your legislative agenda.

 
MESSAGES->author
TCM2007 (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
19 April, 2017 08:45
The election has nothing to do with Brexit. It's because she can lose any vote where 9 of her back benchers rebel, and she has more than 9 serial rebels. She needs a 30+ majority to be able to do what she wants.

Plus, a snap election means no Labour reselection so they stay divided, and skipping 2020 which would have been when the EU @#$%& hits the fan.



Stuart

Former ed.

 
MESSAGES->author
OutsideBath (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
19 April, 2017 08:48
This has got to be the hardest election in history for the people of the UK, with no single party demonstrating the honesty, integrity and competence to run the country.



Chris Cook - Adopted player 2016/17

 
Substitute
Substitute (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
19 April, 2017 08:54
Quote:
OutsideBath
...no single party demonstrating the honesty, integrity and competence to run the country.

When was the last time we had that?

 
MESSAGES->author
shipwrecked (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
19 April, 2017 08:57
Your right Stuart but many of the major political issues are going to be Brexit related. With Labour saying they won't support a Brexit deal if they don't like it, going into that vote after the 2 year negotiation with the possibility of defeat would be an unnecessary risk.

She is removing that possibility while she can, that seems prudent.

 
fat lock
fat lock (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
19 April, 2017 09:28
I had a lovely dream last night.....
Labour campaign on their core areas - NHS and Public Services - this shores up their support a little in their safe seats - those disillusioned with Corbyn won't vote Tory - so at worse they may lose the odd seat to Lib Dems.
In the seats the Tories gained from Lib Dems there's a reaction to the hard Brexit agenda - reverting them to Lib Dem. UKIP will play a role here splitting the Tory vote by attracting those who believe this election is to try and enable a watering down of Brexit.

End result - Theresa loses her majority and has to form a coalition government which is more pro EU.

 
MESSAGES->author
OutsideBath (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
19 April, 2017 09:30
Quote:
Substitute
Quote:
OutsideBath
...no single party demonstrating the honesty, integrity and competence to run the country.

When was the last time we had that?

Good point, been trying to think of a party in history that worked for the people and not their own financial benefit and I'm still struggling.



Chris Cook - Adopted player 2016/17

 
MESSAGES->author
jayeatman (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
19 April, 2017 10:22
Quote:
fat lock
I had a lovely dream last night.....
Labour campaign on their core areas - NHS and Public Services - this shores up their support a little in their safe seats - those disillusioned with Corbyn won't vote Tory - so at worse they may lose the odd seat to Lib Dems.
In the seats the Tories gained from Lib Dems there's a reaction to the hard Brexit agenda - reverting them to Lib Dem. UKIP will play a role here splitting the Tory vote by attracting those who believe this election is to try and enable a watering down of Brexit.

End result - Theresa loses her majority and has to form a coalition government which is more pro EU.

Sadly, likely to remain a dream.
Who would form a coalition with the Tories though? Certainly not the LibDems after Cameron comprehensively stitched them up after the last one. So the only coalition could be a Lab/SNP/LibDem one. And that would be as split over Brexit as the Tory party was!

BTW I suspect there's a couple of thing Theresa is more worried about than she'll let on:
1. The electoral fraud investigations. Worst case, these could rob her of her majority overnight.
2. The Remainer wing of the Tory party. Other than a couple of noisy exceptions, you get the feeling they are biding their time, keeping low profiles and their knives sharp. Given the opportunity the likes of Heseltine and Clarke would be on her in a moment.

 
Bath Hammer
Bath Hammer (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
19 April, 2017 10:26
It would be interesting if rather than bandying slogans around someone would explain what soft Brexit is??? As Theresa May said, and for which she was ridiculed, Brexit means Brexit. As stupid as it sounds it is actually stating a fact. Effectively, what those who use the term soft Brexit are describing is not actually Brexit at all, in other words accepting free movement, abiding by EU rules & reguations & remaining under the jurisdiction of the EU courts, which is not what the majority voted for.

 
Boldngrey
Boldngrey (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
19 April, 2017 10:46
The referendum asked ‘leave or stay’.

We voted ‘leave’, not ‘only leave if…….’

It is therefore incumbent on the Government to leave with the best terms possible and there should be no argument from other parties if we can get no concessions.

 
MESSAGES->author
woodpecker (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
19 April, 2017 10:51
Here's my take:

Soft: you see the EU as our most important trading partner (also key non trading partnerships) therefore will try to find compromise around EU laws and free movement i.e. priority is to do a good deal with the EU.

Hard: Do not prioritize the EU over the rest of the world and will not compromise on a deal with the EU.

As I've pointed out before, business big and small was in favour of staying in the EU, this stuff about being free to sign trade deals with the rest of the world is not something that 'business' was looking for, it was an argument developed by Brexiteers to counter the negative statements of remainers about leaving the single market.

As a result a tangible difference is probably the customs union. Personally I would rather we stay in the customs union and if anyone says 'that's not what the people voted for' I would say bo11ocks!

 
MESSAGES->author
CoochieCoo (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
19 April, 2017 11:37
A soft Brexit would be a Norway style deal and frankly that is tantamount to being where we were without a voice!



http://zdgzqa.bay.livefilestore.com/y1p7Mwi7pLXeM89TY2KFdDQ-UUDGSv1FKNdhYdrW-koAuRN3tsqCPfE3onFxuO-3cZ0057Tom1uJai3vjkz3dvY_Q/1998%20Euro%20Champs.jpg http://zdgzqa.bay.livefilestore.com/y1pFul9UAV5zEXOzeRc1kmmlgDKXTYTIlTnGoQzYelH6KzdCeU-exN0IGo74QN2OGvlSoEiVjzAESvHx9BFlBsNFA/Bath%202008.jpg

 
Mike the Taxi
Mike the Taxi (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
19 April, 2017 13:16
George Osborne to Stand Down as MP
"Never trust a man who speaks out of the side of his mouth"

 
Substitute
Substitute (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
19 April, 2017 13:21
It's one thing prioritising a trade (and non-trade) deals with Europe - arguably the government already is.

It is another thing to surrender to the restrictive terms of one bloc to the detriment of other potential deals, without even a negotiation.

 
DanWiley
DanWiley (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
19 April, 2017 13:46
A soft option is a Norway option, it is brexit, we will have left the EU. That is exactly what it said on the paper and so what we voted for.

As cc says, whether that is a good thing is another matter. Mind you, is it any better than being a impotent partner in a deal with the us?

 
Substitute
Substitute (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
19 April, 2017 14:06
Given no side of the argument suggested soft Brexit was an option, none argued from that point and both sides implied that leaving the EU meant leaving the single market, it is a bit tenuous to say it is what we voted for.

So while it is a Brexit - and it is the Brexit for people who don't want Brexit - there is little to say that is what people voted for.

 
Trev's Big Tackle
Trev's Big Tackle (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
19 April, 2017 14:09
There was plenty of talk of "Norway model" and "Swiss model" before the referendum, and not just on page 3 (Sm100)

 
MESSAGES->author
Which Tyler (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
19 April, 2017 14:38
Quote:
Substitute
Given no side of the argument suggested soft Brexit was an option, none argued from that point and both sides implied that leaving the EU meant leaving the single market, it is a bit tenuous to say it is what we voted for.
So while it is a Brexit - and it is the Brexit for people who don't want Brexit - there is little to say that is what people voted for.
You and I remember the referendum very differently.
No side argued in favour of a soft Brexit, but it was still a massive talking point, and vote-swinging point.
Equally no side argued in favour of a hard Brexit (well, I guess UKIP's 3rd side did), or a "Red white and blue" Brexit; or any other specific style of Brexit; nor were any of the styles of Brexit available os options for anyone to vote on.



A man who cannot change his mind, cannot change anything
RAEBURN SHIELD


Beno Obano - 2016-17 adoptee
http://www.rugbyrebels.co/board/download/file.php?id=117

 
MESSAGES->author
CoochieCoo (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
19 April, 2017 14:45
I am a remainer but have accepted the result. In my view there is no doubt that the leavers voted for the red line result of control over immigration. Unless the EU does a massive u turn that means no soft Brexit!



http://zdgzqa.bay.livefilestore.com/y1p7Mwi7pLXeM89TY2KFdDQ-UUDGSv1FKNdhYdrW-koAuRN3tsqCPfE3onFxuO-3cZ0057Tom1uJai3vjkz3dvY_Q/1998%20Euro%20Champs.jpg http://zdgzqa.bay.livefilestore.com/y1pFul9UAV5zEXOzeRc1kmmlgDKXTYTIlTnGoQzYelH6KzdCeU-exN0IGo74QN2OGvlSoEiVjzAESvHx9BFlBsNFA/Bath%202008.jpg

 
MESSAGES->author
spongey (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
19 April, 2017 15:13
I'm not sure I'll particularly enjoy the result of a larger Tory majority although I won't hate it, but hopefully it benefits Labour and the Lib Dems in the long run to make British politics stronger providing a more competent opposition with Corbyn going and the Lib Dems actually getting some footing. I voted remain but trying to reverse the result at this stage is madness and would only create more uncertainty affecting the economy and the people of the UK negatively but there's still a lot on the table to try and get a Brexit that works for the long term prospects of the UK. It also means the Tories can write a new Manifesto which they clearly want to do because May's Tories are different to Cameron's so it'll give them a mandate to do things they want to do.

The Tories clearly need more competent pressure put on them for healthcare and education in particular. Which hopefully a new new Labour or a rising Lib Dems can do. If Corbyn clings on maybe we get a Labour split into the Lib Dems creating a new party which could be a good thing having a more central opposition without a toxic membership. Politics might be depressing at times but it's certainly entertaining.

 
Substitute
Substitute (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
19 April, 2017 15:28
Quote:
Which Tyler
You and I remember the referendum very differently.
No side argued in favour of a soft Brexit...

Then we remember it the same. Basing your vote on something that neither side argued for is hopeful, at best.

Quote:
Which Tyler
... nor were any of the styles of Brexit available os options for anyone to vote on.

Nor are there options - only the spectrum of a negotiation.

At the end of the day, people voted against the EU. For the vast majority of reasons they would do that, are incompatible not only with EU membership, but also EEA membership.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 19/04/2017 15:33 by Substitute.

 
DanWiley
DanWiley (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
19 April, 2017 15:38
Actually, people did argue for the Norway option.

 
MESSAGES->author
woodpecker (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
19 April, 2017 15:42
Quote:
DanWiley
Actually, people did argue for the Norway option.

Dan, even if you post 10 links proving that, the brexiteers won't believe you!

 
Trev's Big Tackle
Trev's Big Tackle (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
19 April, 2017 15:44
Quote:
woodpecker
Quote:
DanWiley
Actually, people did argue for the Norway option.

Dan, even if you post 10 links proving that, the brexiteers won't believe you!

They also don't believe anyone said we'd get €350 million a week to spend on the NHS...

 
Substitute
Substitute (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
19 April, 2017 15:58
Quote:
woodpecker
Quote:
DanWiley
Actually, people did argue for the Norway option.

Dan, even if you post 10 links proving that, the brexiteers won't believe you!

I am sure someone did. What I am obviously missing is the official campaigns and high-profile figures arguing for the Norway option.

And please, please provide the Mcgrory video as proof...

 
DanWiley
DanWiley (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
19 April, 2017 16:33
Malcos friend Dan Hannan made the point repeatedly. 10 links would not be difficult to find.


[www.chathamhouse.org]

 
Substitute
Substitute (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
19 April, 2017 17:22
Quote:
DanWiley
Malcos friend Dan Hannan made the point repeatedly. 10 links would not be difficult to find.
[www.chathamhouse.org]


Are you Mcgrory in disguise?

Quote:
Dan Hannan (in DanWiley's link)
That said, no one is proposing precisely to copy Norway. The reason Norway, unlike Switzerland, has to apply any EU legal acts at all is that its pro-EU leaders have never accepted the result of the 1994 referendum, and continue to hanker after membership.

Swiss politicians accepted their voters’ verdict; Norwegian politicians didn’t – and haven’t. In consequence, while Norway unquestionably has a better deal than Britain, Switzerland has a better deal than either. But a post-EU Britain, with 65 million people to Switzerland’s 8 million and Norway’s 5 million, could do better yet.

 
DanWiley
DanWiley (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
19 April, 2017 17:39
I'm not sure what your point is?

 
Boldngrey
Boldngrey (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
19 April, 2017 20:23
Hannan is an MEP not an MP so is expressing an opinion without any ability to influence the outcome.

I seem to recall the choice on the ballot paper was not 'or the Norwegian option.'

 
Substitute
Substitute (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
19 April, 2017 20:40
And Hannan is an MEP who didn't argue for the Norway option...

Anyway, Theresa has refused to participate in the pre-election debates.

Anyone really care about debates?

 
DanWiley
DanWiley (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
19 April, 2017 20:53
I think the debates are a bit of a gimmick, but i think may should be able to stand up to them

"Hannanis an MEP not an MP so is expressing an opinion without any ability to influence the outcome. "

Apparently none of the people campaigning are able influence the outcome, that's for the government to do, weren't you listening to malco?

He put out a number of articles at the time, widely cited, advocating something akin to the Norway option.

The paper said nothing more than leave the EU or not. That could be an option like Norway or for the country to go and bury itself in the sand.

 
annie blackthorn
annie blackthorn (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
19 April, 2017 22:33
No-one so far above has mentioned that another factor on May's List would be the troublesome House of Lords with its totally unaccountable 100 Liberal peers and the also ran retired Conservative remainers who would object, slow down, table amendments to every single bit of negotiating legislation as it goes through - as they demonstrated last month.
smiling bouncing smiley
The SNP seems to be running scared from the amount of noise they are making!



Matt Garvey - one to add to my List of Forward Talented Adoptees since 2003/4!

 
Substitute
Substitute (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
19 April, 2017 23:15
I imagine May feels equally strongly about the Lords, but hard to see what this election does about it.

After all, they're not on the ballot. And a Conservative government voting to abolish or replace the Lords (however justifiable) is a recipe for disenfranchisement of the classical Tory vote.

 
MESSAGES->author
shipwrecked (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
20 April, 2017 00:04
Quote:
Substitute
I imagine May feels equally strongly about the Lords, but hard to see what this election does about it.
After all, they're not on the ballot. And a Conservative government voting to abolish or replace the Lords (however justifiable) is a recipe for disenfranchisement of the classical Tory vote.

It does diminish the Lords argument that Mays position as PM was not elected but inherited. Providing she gets elected of course. Sticklers for protocol in the Lords!

 
Trev's Big Tackle
Trev's Big Tackle (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
20 April, 2017 08:47
May has, perhaps with some hyperbole from her media friends, branded remainers "Sabateurs" and even enemies. 54% of her constituency in Maidenhead voted to remain...

Unlikely I know, but if that 54% vote for a pro-EU party (does one exist?) then Teresa might lose her seat!

 
MESSAGES->author
hasta (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
20 April, 2017 09:45
2010 Maidenhead:

Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Theresa May 31,937 59.5 +7.6
Liberal Democrat Tony Hill 15,168 28.2 −8.0

It's very unlikely. But would be hilarious.

 
gaz59
gaz59 (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
20 April, 2017 10:42
Quote:
Stuart Anderton
The election has nothing to do with Brexit. It's because she can lose any vote where 9 of her back benchers rebel, and she has more than 9 serial rebels. She needs a 30+ majority to be able to do what she wants.
Plus, a snap election means no Labour reselection so they stay divided, and skipping 2020 which would have been when the EU @#$%& hits the fan.

Completely agree with that and add in the likely impact on economy and jobs from 'austerity' policies and business relocating to europe plus rising inflation and this is May's one and golden opportunity to run and expect to make important gains

If it was simply about strengthening the UK's negotiating hand in Brussels then why did she not make that case months ago

May has her mandate to negotiate Brexit, she has dithered over any coherent plan or even reached a consensus on the key objectives - this move is simply to get more Tory bums in Westminster whilst invoking the spirit of the Iron Lady Mk2

 
Substitute
Substitute (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
20 April, 2017 10:43
Quote:
Trev's Big Tackle
May has, perhaps with some hyperbole from her media friends, branded remainers "Sabateurs" and even enemies. 54% of her constituency in Maidenhead voted to remain...

I thought she branded the Lib Dems and Labour as 'saboteurs', which is an all together smaller population.

Remember, the country is coming together...

 
Substitute
Substitute (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
20 April, 2017 10:49
Quote:
gaz59

May has her mandate to negotiate Brexit, she has dithered over any coherent plan or even reached a consensus on the key objectives - this move is simply to get more Tory bums in Westminster whilst invoking the spirit of the Iron Lady Mk2

Not to mention the expenses investigation and her 'legacy' policies...

I agree that this is not about Brexit and am disappointed it is being framed as such.

Elections are not single-issue referendums and drawing conclusions on single issues from an election is folly.

Especially when that single issue is being used to mask the myriad policy decisions that come with electing the Conservative party, which possibly aren't all that palatable to Labour supporters they hope to attract.

 
fat lock
fat lock (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
21 April, 2017 08:00
May is ever so dull 'on the stump' and Corbyn seems genuinely relaxed and happy preaching to the converted in large halls full of his supporters.
This is already coming across in the news - and may have an impact I think

 
MESSAGES->author
OutsideBath (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
21 April, 2017 08:09
Quote:
fat lock
May is ever so dull 'on the stump' and Corbyn seems genuinely relaxed and happy preaching to the converted in large halls full of his supporters.
This is already coming across in the news - and may have an impact I think

Trouble is that Corby's policies are sheer lunacy and surely even those lacking intelligence will see that?



Chris Cook - Adopted player 2016/17

 
MESSAGES->author
woodpecker (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
21 April, 2017 10:20
This woman makes Corbyn look like a genius


[www.bbc.co.uk]

 
The Oilman
The Oilman (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
21 April, 2017 11:26
Quote:
woodpecker
This woman makes Corbyn look like a genius

[www.bbc.co.uk]

Doesn't seem to be many Labour hopefuls who understand the policies either.

 
Substitute
Substitute (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
21 April, 2017 12:03
Doesn't seem to be many policies for the Labour hopefuls to understand.

 
gaz59
gaz59 (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
21 April, 2017 16:32
Quote:
OutsideBath
Quote:
fat lock
May is ever so dull 'on the stump' and Corbyn seems genuinely relaxed and happy preaching to the converted in large halls full of his supporters.
This is already coming across in the news - and may have an impact I think

Trouble is that Corby's policies are sheer lunacy and surely even those lacking intelligence will see that?

OK, just how many can you name of those so called sheer lunacy policies

Give us your top 5

 
MESSAGES->author
OutsideBath (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
21 April, 2017 16:42
Quote:
gaz59
Quote:
OutsideBath
Quote:
fat lock
May is ever so dull 'on the stump' and Corbyn seems genuinely relaxed and happy preaching to the converted in large halls full of his supporters.
This is already coming across in the news - and may have an impact I think

Trouble is that Corby's policies are sheer lunacy and surely even those lacking intelligence will see that?

OK, just how many can you name of those so called sheer lunacy policies

Give us your top 5

Let's just settle for every policy he has ever come up with.

I can't think of one single policy statement that is plausible for me.



Chris Cook - Adopted player 2016/17

 
Bath Supporter Jack

Re: O/T Election?
21 April, 2017 17:02
Here's some

Increased tax on the super rich, ie anyone earning £70,000........ignoring the reality of Laffer's Curve

Renationalisation of the Railways

Removal of the Independent Status of the Bank of England

Tobin style tax on financial transactions

Talking to militant groups....like Hamas etc and calling them his friends

Opposed to fracking but wants to reopen deep coal mines in the North of England

All energy companies should be renationalised

Government should print more money, say £500bn, and embark on large, very large infrastructure
spending

Introduction of a maximum wage

 
The Oilman
The Oilman (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
21 April, 2017 17:11
Quote:
Bath Supporter Jack
Here's some
Increased tax on the super rich, ie anyone earning £70,000........ignoring the reality of Laffer's Curve

Renationalisation of the Railways

Removal of the Independent Status of the Bank of England

Tobin style tax on financial transactions

Talking to militant groups....like Hamas etc and calling them his friends

Opposed to fracking but wants to reopen deep coal mines in the North of England

All energy companies should be renationalised

Government should print more money, say £500bn, and embark on large, very large infrastructure
spending

Introduction of a maximum wage

A compelling list, what's not to like ? (Sm49)

 
MESSAGES->author
OutsideBath (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
21 April, 2017 17:35
Quote:
The Oilman
Quote:
Bath Supporter Jack
Here's some
Increased tax on the super rich, ie anyone earning £70,000........ignoring the reality of Laffer's Curve

Renationalisation of the Railways

Removal of the Independent Status of the Bank of England

Tobin style tax on financial transactions

Talking to militant groups....like Hamas etc and calling them his friends

Opposed to fracking but wants to reopen deep coal mines in the North of England

All energy companies should be renationalised

Government should print more money, say £500bn, and embark on large, very large infrastructure
spending

Introduction of a maximum wage

A compelling list, what's not to like ? (Sm49)

For me pretty much all of them are wrong.

Maybe banning fracking is a good one



Chris Cook - Adopted player 2016/17

 
MESSAGES->author
CoochieCoo (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
21 April, 2017 18:24
Isn't he going to send the Trident submarines round the world unarmed as well?



http://zdgzqa.bay.livefilestore.com/y1p7Mwi7pLXeM89TY2KFdDQ-UUDGSv1FKNdhYdrW-koAuRN3tsqCPfE3onFxuO-3cZ0057Tom1uJai3vjkz3dvY_Q/1998%20Euro%20Champs.jpg http://zdgzqa.bay.livefilestore.com/y1pFul9UAV5zEXOzeRc1kmmlgDKXTYTIlTnGoQzYelH6KzdCeU-exN0IGo74QN2OGvlSoEiVjzAESvHx9BFlBsNFA/Bath%202008.jpg

 
Boldngrey
Boldngrey (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
21 April, 2017 20:21
And aircraft carriers with no aircraft from the Tories.

 
OBinexile
OBinexile (IP Logged)

Re: O/T Election?
21 April, 2017 20:36
OK, Labours policies - as I understand it. Not taken from the media - but from Labour. Now, if you want to construe the medias interpretation of labours policies as lunacy then you're right. But exactly the same can be done for the Tories policies if viewed from the left.

Ban companies based in tax havens bidding for government contracts
£10 minimum wage for all workers over the age of 18
All rented accommodation to be fit for human habitation
Renationalise the railways
Renationalise the NHS
Free school meals
Create a National Education Service
Scrap tuition fees
Restore NHS Bursaries
Increase the carers allowance
Create a National Investment Bank
End the public sector pay freeze
End sweetheart tax deals between HMRC and massive corporations
Stop major corporations ripping off their suppliers
Reverse the Tory corporation tax cuts
Defend Human Rights
Zero Hours Contracts ban
Holding the Tories to account over Brexit
Housebuilding
Combat inequality

OBinExile

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