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BathJoe88
BathJoe88 (IP Logged)

Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
13 September, 2017 14:53
Hey guys,

Long time reader, first time poster - apologies if someone has already submitted something like this but thought I would share!

I've seen the tracker which shows how Bath are doing vs last season and it got me thinking about judging how I could track our progress towards a top 4 finish in a simple way.

Looking back at the last several seasons, reaching 70 points more or less guarantees top 4 - usually with a couple of points to spare.

This is fairly crude but we can achieve this by setting out the following targets which given the odd exception I don't think are too unrealistic to aim for.

Win all home games: 11 x 4pts = 44pts
Win away vs bottom 5 teams: 5 x 4pts = 20pts
Secure losing bonus point away vs top 6: 6 x 1pts = 6pts

"Bottom 5" and Top 6" refers to the final positions of each team last year. It also excludes Bath from the equation technically making it a table of 11 teams (so Northampton would technically count as a top 6 side despite finishing 7th). London Irish take the place this year of the relegated Bristol.

This totals exactly 70 points. Obviously there will be upsets (arguably Sarries at home wouldn't fit this mold as many expected a loss) but it is the simplest approach I could think of to deliver the right number of points. It also doesn't factor in winning bonus points which could obviously negate the odd upset.

So far this season then:

Leicester Away:
Target = 1pts
Actual = 4pts

Sarries Home:
Target = 4pts
Actual = 4pts

Totals:
Target: 5pts
Actual: 8pts

So essentially according to my crude method, Bath are 3 points ahead of schedule. Or as a percentage we are 11% of the way towards 70 points vs a target of 7% - so a great start!

Not perfect, possibly pointless, but I thought I'd share it anyway!

Can update if anyone other than me cares and if someone tells me how to paste in an excel table without screwing up the formatting or post a screenshot I can make it much more aesthetic and laydown the table for the whole season.

Cheers

 
MESSAGES->author
Which Tyler (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
13 September, 2017 15:10
Welcome to the board - posting Excel sheets is best done by taking a screenshot of them and opsting the jpg.

As for the system - the previous Ed. used to run a similar thread; a like-for-like comparison of the current season to the previous couple, along with aggragate difference. I'm sure he'd be more than happy for you to take over (but I could always be wrong - it does happen sometimes...)



A man who cannot change his mind, cannot change anything
http://www.rugbyrebels.co/board/download/file.php?id=608
RAEBURN SHIELD

 
Pie-Half
Pie-Half (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
13 September, 2017 15:53
i beleive the average for 4th is around 64pts i seem to remember from last seasons ending



Andy Goode's body double.

Bring back rucking and speed up the game. Simple, for rucks sake.

A.B.L.

Charlie Ewels - Adopted player 2017/18
Levi Douglas - Adopted player 2017/18
Tom Homer - Adopted player 2016/17

 
BathJoe88
BathJoe88 (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
13 September, 2017 19:33
It's about 66 points on average over the last 5 years.

Highest requirement in the last 5 years is 68 points so 70 *should* be enough to comfortably qualify for playoffs.

 
MESSAGES->author
hasta (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
13 September, 2017 20:36
The rough rule Stu used to have was 'win all your home games plus 4 away games = top four'.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 13/09/2017 20:38 by hasta.

 
Bath Hammer
Bath Hammer (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
14 September, 2017 01:01
It's an interesting approach for a change BJ so give it a go. It's best to make it a challenging target.

 
gaz59
gaz59 (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
14 September, 2017 08:07
As Wasps and Quins have found there is no easy, obvious 5 pointer and if you look beyond Irish and Worcs for the bottom 2 places then look at the starting 15 for the teams you think most likely to be placed at 9th and 10th

The AP is getting increasingly competitive and the points difference between 3rd and 8th will be small - 70 points will smash a play off position

 
MESSAGES->author
jayeatman (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
14 September, 2017 15:41
Quote:
BathJoe88
Hey guys,
Win all home games: 11 x 4pts = 44pts
Win away vs bottom 5 teams: 5 x 4pts = 20pts
Secure losing bonus point away vs top 6: 6 x 1pts = 6pts

Cheers

A man after my own heart!
This is pretty much what we achieved in coming second in 2014/5 when I think we beat all the bottom 6 away.
Last season, our undoing was to lose away to the bottom 4 teams and winning those away game this season will be the hardest thing, especially when they are on plastic!

Obviously you're not going to be on the winning side in every close game, last year it was 50/50. It probably felt worse because most of the losses were at the end of the season, but you'd hope for a few TBPs to go with the LBPs and compensate for the odd slip up.

 
BathJoe88
BathJoe88 (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
01 October, 2017 17:01
So the win at Leicester away gave us a cracking start which we backed up with a home win at sarries to leave us on 8 points vs a target of 5.

The (non bonus point) loss at Northampton left us on 8 points vs a target of 6 so still a decent start.

Targeting a win against Newcastle at home we came up short, but 4 tries and a losing BP meant we picked up the 2 points necessary to leave us on 10 total points vs a target of 10 so bang on course.

Todays great result gave us 4 points vs a target of 1 to leave us 3 points ahead of schedule!

Target: 11
Current: 14

Overall, we've navigated a very tricky start to the season pretty well and with the first quarter of the season almost over we've already played 3 of the top 7 teams last year away from home.

Hopefully we can push on and if we can stay strong at home there's every chance we can make a real push for top 4.

Bathjoe

 
dcsh
dcsh (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
01 October, 2017 17:08
Good to know, thanks for the update.

 
gaz59
gaz59 (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
01 October, 2017 18:31
Did any team last year [or year before for that matter] beat Tiggers away, Sarries at home and Wasps away?

Had we kept our heads in the Saints game after doing so well for the first 36 minutes and then closed out the Newcastle game when clearly ahead we would be purring

On the other hand to ship so many tries to Saints and gift Falcons a 5 pointer at the Rec does suggest the old soft vulnerable under belly is still with us

Weird!

 
MESSAGES->author
OutsideBath (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
02 October, 2017 10:40
Losing at Saints is no shame, but losing at home to Falcons does suggest we have some fundamental weakness.

We seem to be a really inconsistent team, beat Tigers, Sarries and Wasps then lose to Falcons!



Tom Dunn - Adopted player 2018/19

 
MESSAGES->author
Which Tyler (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
02 October, 2017 11:36
Quote:
OutsideBath
Losing at Saints is no shame, but losing at home to Falcons does suggest we have some fundamental weakness.
We seem to be a really inconsistent team, beat Tigers, Sarries and Wasps then lose to Falcons!
The implication is that you don't consider Falcons to be a good team - which puts you a couple of years out of date.


A man who cannot change his mind, cannot change anything
http://www.rugbyrebels.co/board/download/file.php?id=608
RAEBURN SHIELD

 
HMilner
Big Dog (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
02 October, 2017 11:49
Quote:
Which Tyler
Quote:
OutsideBath
Losing at Saints is no shame, but losing at home to Falcons does suggest we have some fundamental weakness.
We seem to be a really inconsistent team, beat Tigers, Sarries and Wasps then lose to Falcons!
The implication is that you don't consider Falcons to be a good team - which puts you a couple of years out of date.

Burn...

To be fair though WT does raise a good point which is that we probably do not perceive Falcons to be a threat but really we should. They have started the season tremendously well and were well deserving of their win against us to be fair. We should also count our blessings really that we got two losing bonus points at that given that we were 19-0 down in 20 minutes and how tight the league is this year they may be vital points in the end for top 4 places.

For me they are definitely top 4 if not title contenders if they continue as they are!



Adopted players: 2017-18 Shaun Knight; 2018-19 Jonathan Joseph

 
MESSAGES->author
OutsideBath (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
02 October, 2017 12:28
Quote:
Which Tyler
Quote:
OutsideBath
Losing at Saints is no shame, but losing at home to Falcons does suggest we have some fundamental weakness.
We seem to be a really inconsistent team, beat Tigers, Sarries and Wasps then lose to Falcons!
The implication is that you don't consider Falcons to be a good team - which puts you a couple of years out of date.

It's possible that I have let my intense dislike for them cloud my judgement, however when you look at who they have played so far I do believe they are in a slightly false position.



Tom Dunn - Adopted player 2018/19

 
BathJoe88
BathJoe88 (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
08 October, 2017 11:03
Right back on track after yesterdays victory against Worcester.

A home game so obviously targeting a win and this was one of those games where you hope for a bonus point to give ourselves a bit of breathing room. The 4 tries means we pull one point further ahead of our season target to date:

Target: 15 pts
Current: 19 pts

We are now over 25% through the season and 4 points ahead of schedule which allows us a potential wobble at some point.

That being said, upcoming home games and match ups vs weaker opposition do mean we will need to put a run together over the next 3 games. Heres hoping we can do that now!

Would've taken this at the start of the season.

Bathjoe88

 
BathJoe88
BathJoe88 (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
10 October, 2017 13:20
[ibb.co]

Finally worked out how to do this - Screenshot of my table saved here.

 
Bathovalballer
Bathovalballer (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
10 October, 2017 13:40
Be assured Newcastle are no mugs and have achieved their excellent start without their 'new stars' Flood and Mermoz starting yet.

They play an all action, running game, backing up and off loading close to any breach in a defense. They may lack a real speedster but have huge experience in players like Gonova and their scrum half, workmanlike mobile pack with the excellent Wilson to the fore, very much like Exeter's game plan of 2/3 seasons ago. They will continue to beat other, better on paper sides, and will not be weakened by international call ups either.

IMO a true force to be reckoned with and could easily be in the top 4 at the end of the season.

 
MESSAGES->author
hasta (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
10 October, 2017 15:16
I suspect Newcastle will be 5th-6th.

 
MESSAGES->author
Which Tyler (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
10 October, 2017 16:14
I think there's so little to choose between 3rd and 10th that luck could make the difference across that range.
In terms of quality of squad (team and backroom) call it "par":
Saracens and Wasps are top of the pile

Bath, Exeter & Leicester are much of a muchness; and only slightly behind them are
Gloucester, Harlequins, Newcastle, Northampton & Sale are also much of a muchness

Bristol, LIrish & Worcester all pretty close to each other



A man who cannot change his mind, cannot change anything
http://www.rugbyrebels.co/board/download/file.php?id=608
RAEBURN SHIELD

 
Bath Hammer
Bath Hammer (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
10 October, 2017 16:16
Quote:
Bathovalballer
Be assured Newcastle are no mugs and have achieved their excellent start without their 'new stars' Flood and Mermoz starting yet.
They play an all action, running game, backing up and off loading close to any breach in a defense. They may lack a real speedster but have huge experience in players like Gonova and their scrum half, workmanlike mobile pack with the excellent Wilson to the fore, very much like Exeter's game plan of 2/3 seasons ago. They will continue to beat other, better on paper sides, and will not be weakened by international call ups either.

IMO a true force to be reckoned with and could easily be in the top 4 at the end of the season.

It could be that their "new stars" won't make the team but they will strengthen the squad. I will plump for 6/7th

 
MESSAGES->author
TCM2007 (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
10 October, 2017 22:25
BathJoe88, use the BB code to embed the image:

https://preview.ibb.co/d3oNYw/bath_tracker.jpg



Stuart

Former ed.

 
BathJoe88
BathJoe88 (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
30 October, 2017 09:19
https://preview.ibb.co/jPgGwR/bath_70_points_tracker.png


Still just about where we need to be after yesterdays loss - wins against Wasps and Leicester Away cancelling out the 2 home losses.

I'm concerned about the 4 week period coming up where we will require wins Away at Sale and Worcester and home to Wasps and Saints.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 30/10/2017 09:20 by BathJoe88.

 
ballsout
ballsout (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
30 October, 2017 11:23
Depressing to think away wins at Tigers and Wasps have been cancelled out by these two braindead home losses. What a waste.

 
BathJoe88
BathJoe88 (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
20 November, 2017 10:16
Updated:

https://preview.ibb.co/dNhhTR/70_Points_tracker_Bath.png

We got the job done with a lot of our top players on international duty to just about stay above the planned target.

Need a win vs Quins before heading to Exeter. Then we have the very tough ask of winning 6 on the spin...here's hoping. The way the league is shaping up it's likely that 4th place will require a lot less points than 70 anyway. For me personally I think we're looking less and less like a top 4 side - I hope i'm proved wrong!

 
BathJoe88
BathJoe88 (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
27 November, 2017 11:19
Finally a winning bonus point!

We're now 2 points ahead of where we need to be heading into a tough game against Exeter. If we can somehow get a result at Sandy Park we'll be in a really strong position going into a tough run of games where according to the above principles we'll require six wins in a row.

Here's hoping! I still don't think we look like a top 4 team but if we can keep grinding out wins who knows!

https://preview.ibb.co/c9VS2m/70_Points_tracker_Bath.png

 
MESSAGES->author
hasta (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
27 November, 2017 11:31
I think 70 might be high this year. Everyone from 3-9 can beat each other and will, it's going to be a brutal season. Critical to bank wins H/A against the bottom three.

 
BathJoe88
BathJoe88 (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
05 December, 2017 09:04
Not a great day at the office but at least we escaped with a bonus point. Technically still 2 points over and well on track but I don't like the look of the target over the next batch of games...

https://preview.ibb.co/eJoHUb/70_Points_tracker_Bath.png
upload pic

 
Bathovalballer
Bathovalballer (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
05 December, 2017 12:33
Bath 70 points- delusional! Whatever you are on, you had better keep quiet or the men from the funny farm will come a calling.

 
Bath Hammer
Bath Hammer (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
05 December, 2017 12:43
This brings us back to our expectations for our next 3 games which are vital for the outcome of our season I feel.

 
MESSAGES->author
hasta (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
05 December, 2017 13:09
Quote:
Bathovalballer
Whatever you are on, you had better keep quiet or the men from the funny farm will come a calling.

Presented without comment

 
Boldangrey
Boldangrey (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
05 December, 2017 13:50
Quote:
hasta
Quote:
Bathovalballer
Whatever you are on, you had better keep quiet or the men from the funny farm will come a calling.

Presented without comment

Hmm. Funny Farm - BoB.

Am I making the right connection?

 
BathJoe88
BathJoe88 (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
01 January, 2018 11:31
The last 2 results have meant we've fallen off the pace a fair bit. Will need some shock results to pull it back with Gloucester now starting to pull away a bit in 4th.

Updated:

https://preview.ibb.co/hXAZ9w/70_Points_tracker_Bath.png

 
Bath Hammer
Bath Hammer (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
01 January, 2018 16:04
Well done BathJoe. This is a good indicator as to how far away we are from where we want to be. Such a shame after those good early results. However, imagine where we would be now if we hadnít started well.

 
22Dropout
22Dropout (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
01 January, 2018 17:03
I donít think it will be anything like 70 required to make 4th place for the reasons Hasta gave a while ago. More like 63-65 IMHO - so itís not as bad as it looks, and a good run by us could qualify- or indeed anyone else from 4-9 in this very open season!

 
MESSAGES->author
TCM2007 (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
01 January, 2018 19:21
Next 5 games are against bottom half sides, so thing could look pretty different, one way or another, after that.



Stuart

Former ed.

 
MESSAGES->author
OutsideBath (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
01 January, 2018 19:30
Think the more important number is how many points do we need for 6th place. Too many home defeats already for a top 4 side.



Tom Dunn - Adopted player 2018/19

 
BathMatt53
BathMatt53 (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
01 January, 2018 20:05
Quote:
TCM2007
Next 5 games are against bottom half sides, so thing could look pretty different, one way or another, after that.

...Exactly, that was where we really fell over last season...letís all hope that 2018 brings an improvement in accuracy and ball retention.

 
by
by (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
02 January, 2018 13:21
I don't think we'll beat Wuss on Friday but with several players expected to return to the squad soon we should be able to get a good run of games in the following block of games.

When we face Saints on the 8th of February we should have Batty, Attwood, Louw, Underhill, Faletau, Clark, Tapuai, Banahan and Tom Homer available, all of whom will make a huge difference.

 
MESSAGES->author
hasta (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
02 January, 2018 13:27
We really need to beat Wuss on Friday. I fear given our god-awful record on plastic pitches though.

 
MESSAGES->author
OutsideBath (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
02 January, 2018 13:33
Quote:
hasta
We really need to beat Wuss on Friday. I fear given our god-awful record on plastic pitches though.

Nothing in our recent league form suggest we will beat Wuss, not sure even LBP is likely



Tom Dunn - Adopted player 2018/19



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/01/2018 13:34 by OutsideBath.

 
BathMatt53
BathMatt53 (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
02 January, 2018 13:35
Quote:
by
I don't think we'll beat Wuss on Friday but with several players expected to return to the squad soon we should be able to get a good run of games in the following block of games.
When we face Saints on the 8th of February we should have Batty, Attwood, Louw, Underhill, Faletau, Clark, Tapuai, Banahan and Tom Homer available, all of whom will make a huge difference.

Much as I would love this, I don't think that half of those will be available to play?

Bath's director of rugby Todd Blackadder reported...Faletau doesn't need an operation and could be back in time for the final two games in the Six Nations against Italy and France in Cardiff.

Someone said that Banners is in a boot?

Francois Louw, who is also out of the Wasps game with medial ligament damage.

Is Battys neck / nerve issue now sorted?

The return of Homer would be welcome as would young Ellis.

 
by
by (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
02 January, 2018 14:40
Batty is very close to fitness IIRC, I didn't think Banahan's injury was too serious, Ellis is end of Feb/March.

Maybe I am being overly optimistic but we've got 6 weeks.

 
Bath Hammer
Bath Hammer (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
02 January, 2018 18:07
I think this weekís match is the crucial one as without some of these players we have been very mediocre & will be pushed to beat Worcester away.

 
BathMatt53
BathMatt53 (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
03 January, 2018 07:16
Interesting statistics by Dan Evans.

[www.bathchronicle.co.uk]

Mind you, Iím not sure that we have quite seen a season like this one in terms of overall competitiveness.

 
BathJoe88
BathJoe88 (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
08 January, 2018 09:51
Perfect result on Friday boosts us back up to 5th and by virtue of the bonus point we are now just 3 points behind the tracker.

A great result for Newcastle hasn't done us any favours as we could've given ourselves a bit of breathing room had they lost.

Tracker update below:

https://preview.ibb.co/bA6ZK6/70_Points_tracker_Bath.png

Need to keep up the momentum over the next few games as the run in towards the end of the season gets pretty brutal with Exeter, Leicester, Sarries and Gloucester making up 4 of our final 5 games.

Friday has given me a bit of hope

 
gaz59
gaz59 (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
08 January, 2018 10:59
I reckon we have more chance of 4 points at Quins than Glaws

Getting a win at Falcons is important but will be a big test of just how much we have improved on plastic pitches, if we have

 
MESSAGES->author
Clarkey3k (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
19 February, 2018 13:21
@BJ88 - I reckon we are -11 after the last 3 results are added to your numbers but would welcome an update from you. It feels like it's slipping away from us...



Adopted players: 2018/19 Michael Van Vuuren; [18] T Faletau; [17] D Denton; [16] H. Agulla; [15] L Houston; [14] W Spencer; [13] F. Louw

Change a life with a loan [www.deki.org.uk]

 
MESSAGES->author
hasta (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
19 February, 2018 13:29
We'd be -7 on that tracker. Bear in mind that tracks to 70 though. Not sold on that for top four.

This week is key for both top 4/6 against a direct rival at home. God knows what team we'll be able to put out.

 
MESSAGES->author
Clarkey3k (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
19 February, 2018 13:42
Quote:
hasta
We'd be -7 on that tracker. Bear in mind that tracks to 70 though.

Just checking my maths Hasta, no change after Saints result so -3 still; -4 for Falcons and Sharks so -8 in total added to -3 = -11?



Adopted players: 2018/19 Michael Van Vuuren; [18] T Faletau; [17] D Denton; [16] H. Agulla; [15] L Houston; [14] W Spencer; [13] F. Louw

Change a life with a loan [www.deki.org.uk]

 
MESSAGES->author
hasta (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
19 February, 2018 13:44
We... haven't played Sharks yet?

 
MESSAGES->author
Clarkey3k (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
19 February, 2018 14:33
Quote:
hasta
We... haven't played Sharks yet?

Quite right, of course we haven't but I was at Sharks v Sarries on Friday night and have confused the games, how dim of me. I put it down to age and increasingly poor memory, I'm off for a lie down until Sat PM...



Adopted players: 2018/19 Michael Van Vuuren; [18] T Faletau; [17] D Denton; [16] H. Agulla; [15] L Houston; [14] W Spencer; [13] F. Louw

Change a life with a loan [www.deki.org.uk]

 
MESSAGES->author
hasta (IP Logged)

Re: Top 4 Tracker 70 points target
19 February, 2018 14:39
Sale even lost that game winking smiley


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