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hasta (IP Logged)

Strength of Schedule
10 October, 2017 10:59
OK, some quick maths on difficulty of schedule so far for the first six games. Based on league position of opponents after 6 games and a multiplier of 1.5 for away games. Higher number implies harder schedule:

Irish 59
Worcester 59
Wasps 54
Bath 52
Tigers 51
Saints 49.5
Newcastle 49.5
Gloucester 47.5
Sale 47.5
Saracens 44
Quins 38.5
Exeter 33.5

Mean: 48.75

There's a lot of tightness looking at Saints-Newcastle-Bath-Tigers - basically all those four teams look pretty equal and are slogging it out for 3rd/4th. Exeter might be in a slightly false high position and could easily get dragged into that slog. Quins should be worried by their performance given a comparatively hard schedule to come.

by (IP Logged)

Re: Strength of Schedule
10 October, 2017 13:06
We've also got a pretty hard run in at the end:

Quins away
Chiefs home
Tigers at Twickenham
Sarries away
Gloucester away

BathMatt53 (IP Logged)

Re: Strength of Schedule
10 October, 2017 13:17
Wasps are much better than their current league position suggests so doesn’t that mess up the calcs a bit?

hasta (IP Logged)

Re: Strength of Schedule
10 October, 2017 13:24
Are they though? Without Beale they're nowhere near as threatening. Losing two home games already to the likes of us and Quins is also really tough to recover from in terms of targeting top four. It means they'll probably need to win 4-5 away games out of their remaining 8 and not lose any more at home.

Sara'sman (IP Logged)

Re: Strength of Schedule
10 October, 2017 16:34
A very interesting idea Hasta, but ....!

It got me thinking! Isn't the schedule too dependant on a team's own performance? The extreme example is us. If we were bottom, everyone else up one, Wuss' schedule would decrease by 4.5, ours increase by 7.5 if I've understood your methodology - making us 12 "closer". Most other team's number would change too, some up, some down, though not relevant to the point I'm making.

Would ignoring a team's own position (treating the league as one of 11 for every calculation) eliminate/reduce this bias?

As it stands, at the end of the season the top team will have had an easier schedule under your methodology than any other! Of course, you could argue this to be true since they haven't had to play themselves, but ...

You might be interested to nip across to our site and get some revenge with a critique of my thread on a related theme.

Edit to add: Additionally, our schedule is made easier because we beat (and therefore lowered the league position of) all the sides we played. Except for a certain annoying team from the West of course! Hope this doesn't come across as an attempt to "improve" Sarries status - it is meant as a genuine response to an idea that I find interesting.

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/10/2017 16:47 by Sara'sman.

hasta (IP Logged)

Re: Strength of Schedule
10 October, 2017 16:45
Ah.... Yes, that's fair.

Adjusted scores:

Wuss/Irish 53
Bath/Wasps 49
Saints 48.5
Tigers 48
Newcastle 47.5
Saracens 44
Gloucester/Sale 43.5
Quins 36.5
Exeter 33.5
Mean - 45.75

So does bump you up a bit. Main message is on Quins and Ex though I think.

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