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27 Feb, 2012 12:55 Report
WarriorPhill (IP Logged)
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Date Joined: Mar, 2011
Location: Worcester
Posts: 2430
Am I chucking the baby out with the BATH water
Really bad pun I know but;

Is it possible this coming weekend could secure our future in the premiership AND secure our chances of recruiting the level of players we want.

Adversely, could a loss this weekend really dent our chances if Newcastle or Wasps get something positive from their respective games?

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27 Feb, 2012 13:29 Report
beav1s (IP Logged)
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Location: Yeovil
Posts: 2534
Re: Am I chucking the baby out with the BATH water
We are not safe until we are mathematically safe. Remember some of our ridiculous comebacks to safety.

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27 Feb, 2012 13:46 Report
WarriorPhill (IP Logged)
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Date Joined: Mar, 2011
Location: Worcester
Posts: 2430
Re: Am I chucking the baby out with the BATH water
Therefore:

We are on 31
Falcons on 17

14 in front with 6 games to go with a maximum of 30 points available

Senario 1:

We beat Bath with a try bonus (I wish) and get 5 points
Falcons lose to Quins with no losing bonus

We are on 36 Falcons 17

19 in front with 5 games to go with a maximum of 25 points available

Senario 2:

We lose to Bath with no bonus and get 0 points
Falcons beat Quins with a try bonus

We are on 31 Falcons 22

9 in front with 5 games to go with a maximum of 25 points available

If we win statistically we can be caught by Falcons though they would need to score more points in the remaining 5 games than in the first 16

So, I ask again if we win & Falcons lose (though not statistically safe) can we consider Worcester Warriors a premiership team next season?

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27 Feb, 2012 14:09 Report
Shoutin' Bloke (IP Logged)
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Location: Worcster
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Re: Am I chucking the baby out with the BATH water
History tells us in the positive and negative form, that the bottom team can escape, and so cautious optimism is just that at present for me.

I'd like us to beat Bath at their place, just because I would, and not because of further benefits in our plight.

We are certainly in a better place than usual, but I'm with Beav1s on the numbers being the critical number now for certainty.

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27 Feb, 2012 14:14 Report
Keast Was Great (IP Logged)
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Re: Am I chucking the baby out with the BATH water
Is it possible that Bath's appalling pitch (Wreck?),will prevent our free-flowing incisive three quarter line from scoring tries and stop our try bonus? (Sm26)

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27 Feb, 2012 14:17 Report
WarriorPhill (IP Logged)
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Date Joined: Mar, 2011
Location: Worcester
Posts: 2430
Re: Am I chucking the baby out with the BATH water
I fear, vigorniensis that you may be correct. Would seem we will not seal our 2012/13 position until the Falcons arrive at Sixways with no such pitch hinderance on our

Quote:
vigorniensis
free-flowing incisive three quarter line

;-)

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27 Feb, 2012 14:28 Report
Drutz (IP Logged)
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Date Joined: May, 2006
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Posts: 5618
Re: Am I chucking the baby out with the BATH water
Ok I feel we should at minimum get a LBP for the Rec but on current form can actually not rule out us maybe stealing one. I think Falcons will have to put in some serious performance to try to beat Quins who will want a responce after last weekends lost. So I am hoping we might be 4 points better off and I know it is still possible but if we win this weekend I think we can start to breath easy.



Pulling the boots on for one more year

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27 Feb, 2012 15:05 Report
WarriorPhill (IP Logged)
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Date Joined: Mar, 2011
Location: Worcester
Posts: 2430
Re: Am I chucking the baby out with the BATH water
We are lucky in the fact that if we pick up 4 points before the Falcons game and they don't get any points it will be a case of:

35 points for Warriors
17 points for Falcons

18 point gap

4 games remain (inc)

Therefore a draw or losing bonus point would be enough from the Falcons game to secure our place for next season.

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27 Feb, 2012 16:10 Report
pubtime (IP Logged)
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Posts: 1560
Re: Am I chucking the baby out with the BATH water
I think we are confident of a 5 pointer to put right our appaling performance at your place..!

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