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HoboAl
Re: Not counting chickens...
HoboAl (IP Logged)
11 February, 2018 19:07
Quote:
PaulRossborough
In terms of the league, I feel our only threat is DMP. If we dont win it, they will.
However, I actually don't think DMP are a threat in terms of winning/losing the matches against them, in as much as I feel that we are stronger than them... My only unease really, is the teams below, who we seem to struggle to 'get up for.... Caldy etc that we still have to play. I feel we are most likely to drop our points against other teams, as I say, Caldy etc. Hopeully it is only bonus points we drop, if any, and not league points for a won match.

Caldy were great spoilers at the Butts. They have run teams close away and been immense at home. Forget their league position...away they are probably harder than Ampthill and on a par with Plymouth and DMP.. I don't see how you think we are stronger than DMP?

Before Christmas our tough away games were Old Elthemians, won just. DMP postponed. Our next top six away was Blackheath where we got spanked. OK won a tough away at Bishop Stortford. But with DMP home and away
, Caldy away, Plymouth away, Ampthill away...our cushion is deflatable. Glad we have it because we will need it.

Good as this squad is, if we were to go up we will need to bring in 4 or 5 quality players...I think Kessell demonstrated the gulf very well.

I love this league and am enjoying the season!

 
jnjmaxwell@hotmail.com
Re: Not counting chickens...
Maxee (IP Logged)
12 February, 2018 02:43
Quote:
HoboAl
I don't see how you think we are stronger than DMP?

The league table? The 16 point gap?

The 365 points better off we are in terms of points difference season to date?

I'd say those are some pretty key metrics smiling smiley

 
Sam Skennel
Re: Not counting chickens...
Sam Skennel (IP Logged)
12 February, 2018 09:01
I agree - Tom Kessell certainly showed us what the next step is like, and I think we'll likely need three or four additions to our squad for the next level.

Of our remaining away games, I think Caldy will be the game that we are in danger of underestimating because of their league position. I think it will need a good tough referee (and assistants) because they are so very capable of spoiling and getting away with it, slowing our game and forcing errors. We've been guilty in the past of trying to force the game instead of being patient, and I think Caldy will make the most of it - especially in that environment which is another rather spartan one for teams and spectators.

 
BackTenRef?
Re: Not counting chickens...
BackTenRef? (IP Logged)
12 February, 2018 09:19
Rowland has said (and I believe ear marked or had talks with?) SIX. I suspect most are regardless of league and maybe a couple more for the championship. From memory it’s usual to get things wrapped up by Easter but not announce until after the incoming player’s season is completed

 
Wazeroonie
Re: Not counting chickens...
Wazeroonie (IP Logged)
12 February, 2018 15:04
Although we have the relative luxury of three of the last four games of the season being at home, the next five games are crucial to keep the momentum going. I believe the players have what it takes to beat DMP away on the 24th, but as Phil Boulton said today - "We’ve said it from day one, we are inward looking with the mentality of just thinking about the next week and the next job. We don’t think about what other teams are doing, it’s all about us.”
Cambridge will be a tough challenge. I hope all Cov fans get behind the team for the full 80ish minutes. The players say they see us as the 16th man, and it buoys them up. I know that it's frustrating and nerve racking when the players aren't playing as well as we know they can, but in my opinion we should be cheering them on regardless - instead of during the Esher match where some fans were being negative and shouting at individual players that they aren't playing very well. I think they probably knew that already. Give the officials and the opposition some stick, but let's give the players a lift.

 
HoboAl
Re: Not counting chickens...
HoboAl (IP Logged)
12 February, 2018 16:36
Quote:
Maxee
Quote:
HoboAl
I don't see how you think we are stronger than DMP?

The league table? The 16 point gap?

The 365 points better off we are in terms of points difference season to date?

I'd say those are some pretty key metrics smiling smiley

As I said earlier the 16 point gap is potentially a bit false as we have all our hard away games still to play Ampthill, Plymouth and DMP away and home and Caldy away will be really tough; that's 5 tough matches with 25 points at stake. So a lot of tough rugby is yet to come. Loughborough gave us a tough time on Saturday and most of the second half looked capable of beating us.

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: Not counting chickens...
OldNick (IP Logged)
12 February, 2018 16:54
Quote:
HoboAl
Quote:
Maxee
Quote:
HoboAl
I don't see how you think we are stronger than DMP?

The league table? The 16 point gap?

The 365 points better off we are in terms of points difference season to date?

I'd say those are some pretty key metrics smiling smiley

As I said earlier the 16 point gap is potentially a bit false as we have all our hard away games still to play Ampthill, Plymouth and DMP away and home and Caldy away will be really tough; that's 5 tough matches with 25 points at stake. So a lot of tough rugby is yet to come. Loughborough gave us a tough time on Saturday and most of the second half looked capable of beating us.

Hardly false Al.
Darlington have away matches against Coventry Ampthill, and Plymouth to come.
By my reckoning that's harder than away matches against Darlington Ampthill and Plymouth by about one position in the division. It's not three matches easier.

You're writing off three Coventry matches and putting us as worse than Darlington on that basis, when you need to also knock off the equivalent from Darlington as well.

Don't forget they have six away matches to go. We have four. They have three home matches - two against us and Bishop's Stortford will not be easy. I know not all our home matches will be easy ether, but we do have five of them.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 12/02/2018 17:00 by OldNick.

 
HoboAl
Re: Not counting chickens...
HoboAl (IP Logged)
12 February, 2018 18:38
Quote:
OldNick
Quote:
HoboAl
Quote:
Maxee
Quote:
HoboAl
I don't see how you think we are stronger than DMP?

The league table? The 16 point gap?

The 365 points better off we are in terms of points difference season to date?

I'd say those are some pretty key metrics smiling smiley

As I said earlier the 16 point gap is potentially a bit false as we have all our hard away games still to play Ampthill, Plymouth and DMP away and home and Caldy away will be really tough; that's 5 tough matches with 25 points at stake. So a lot of tough rugby is yet to come. Loughborough gave us a tough time on Saturday and most of the second half looked capable of beating us.

Hardly false Al.
Darlington have away matches against Coventry Ampthill, and Plymouth to come.
By my reckoning that's harder than away matches against Darlington Ampthill and Plymouth by about one position in the division. It's not three matches easier.

You're writing off three Coventry matches and putting us as worse than Darlington on that basis, when you need to also knock off the equivalent from Darlington as well.

Don't forget they have six away matches to go. We have four. They have three home matches - two against us and Bishop's Stortford will not be easy. I know not all our home matches will be easy ether, but we do have five of them.

We have the advantage obviously, and we are capable of winning all those games and I would rather be where we are than Darlington (and I don't think we are worse than them but not necessarily much better). But I do sense from some fans that they think it is done and dusted, when it is not. Every team in this league deserves respect home and away. I just worry if the lead were to be eroded and we were only protecting a 5 point lead and nerves came into our game? It is ours to throw away; but I certainly don't think we are over the hill and far away like some fans seem to think.

 
Cov_InPeace
Re: Not counting chickens...
Cov_InPeace (IP Logged)
12 February, 2018 20:07
Quote:
HoboAl

We have the advantage obviously, and we are capable of winning all those games and I would rather be where we are than Darlington (and I don't think we are worse than them but not necessarily much better). But I do sense from some fans that they think it is done and dusted, when it is not. Every team in this league deserves respect home and away. I just worry if the lead were to be eroded and we were only protecting a 5 point lead and nerves came into our game? It is ours to throw away; but I certainly don't think we are over the hill and far away like some fans seem to think.

Yep, that's fair enough. However for my money I think the pressure is more on DMP than it is on us. That's because we've got the points in the bag whereas they must be thinking that any slip-up now is likely to be terminal. That very long trip to Plymouth followed by playing us at home looks like a tough week!

It also feels like we've been able to rest some key players on the run-in to the end of the season, I'm not sure if DMP have had the same luxury.

Having said all of that, this is sport and nothing is certain (except that England will lose on penalties to Germany). If I was a bookie, I wouldn't be paying out on it yet. smiling smiley

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: Not counting chickens...
Kimbo (IP Logged)
12 February, 2018 20:15
Quote:
HoboAl
But I do sense from some fans that they think it is done and dusted

I find that slightly at odds with my perception, to be fair.
I certainly don't think that, and I can't think of anyone else that does either.

 
covkid53
Re: Not counting chickens...
covkid53 (IP Logged)
14 February, 2018 20:54
Quote:
Kimbo
Quote:
HoboAl
But I do sense from some fans that they think it is done and dusted

I find that slightly at odds with my perception, to be fair.
I certainly don't think that, and I can't think of anyone else that does either.
it ain't over till its over. Cov are in the box seat, it is ours to lose. Not counting a single egg let alone a chicken.
Fact is we are 4 games clear, whether that be 4 x 4 points or 3 x 5 +1 points. During those games we have to be pointless to be caught, more to be overtaken.

Very strong position, so every single point we get makes it difficult for the rest.

Example, we average 1 point per game till the end, that is 25 points, so DMP need 5 x 5 point wins + 1 to go ahead, from 9 games. That is a big ask for two reasons, 1. We will get more than 9 points, 2. DMP need to win 8 from 9 assuming we win only 4 from 9 if all are 5 pointers.

Keep the faith.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 14/02/2018 20:57 by covkid53.

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: Not counting chickens...
OldNick (IP Logged)
17 February, 2018 23:32
Three more teams that can no longer catch us. Or, looking at it the other way, only Blackheath and above have a mathematical chance of catching us now. The other do not have enough matches left, whatever we and they do.

Looking at it from the more positive point of view, we now have 104 points. Chasing Darlington Mowden Park have 83, 21 behind. Even if they won all their remaining matches, including the two against Coventry, their maximum possible score is 128. If we score 25 more points from our remaining eight matches we cannot be caught.

Big matches next week - DMP versus Cov, obviously. At the bottom end, Hull Is at home against Rosslyn Park have a chance to get ahead of Loughborough Students. Otherwise, it's a quiet weekend, with only 4 catch-up matches,
.

 
HoboAl
Re: Not counting chickens...
HoboAl (IP Logged)
18 February, 2018 09:18
A great day for us yesterday at the Butts and in Plymouth. Some people have written Plymouth off but if they win their games in hand they have the same points as DMP. Assuming DMP win their game in hand on us the gap is 16 points (great to have). Two tough away fixtures coming up which are very much in the balance DMP and Caldy.

Let's go up to DMP fearless and a performance like yesterday might just be enough. I note the Plymouth site said a good win against a very good team. Plenty of rugby left yet in this great league.

 
Coventrian Man
Re: Not counting chickens...
Coventrian Man (IP Logged)
18 February, 2018 11:16
Hi HA, I think your maths is wrong with Plymouth. They have one game in hand on DMP but are 10 points behind them as of today

 
Moosemagic
Re: Not counting chickens...
Moosemagic (IP Logged)
18 February, 2018 16:35
Why do people seem to think that the Caldy game will be particularly difficult? I agree that teams can be tough to beat in their own backyard, but Caldys home record shows that they have lost to the better teams at home. Yes they will be fired up as most teams seem to be when they play Cov but they have lost 13 games this season.



Phil Reynolds

 
abdabs99rugby
Re: Not counting chickens...
abdabs (IP Logged)
18 February, 2018 17:28
If we win our remaining games at home with a bonus point at each we will win the league...unless dmp got 2 losing bonus points against us in which case we would need 2 more points😎

 
HoboAl
Re: Not counting chickens...
HoboAl (IP Logged)
18 February, 2018 22:12
Quote:
Coventrian Man
Hi HA, I think your maths is wrong with Plymouth. They have one game in hand on DMP but are 10 points behind them as of today

Yes my mistake

 
HoboAl
Re: Not counting chickens...
HoboAl (IP Logged)
18 February, 2018 22:35
Quote:
Moosemagic
Why do people seem to think that the Caldy game will be particularly difficult? I agree that teams can be tough to beat in their own backyard, but Caldys home record shows that they have lost to the better teams at home. Yes they will be fired up as most teams seem to be when they play Cov but they have lost 13 games this season.

Okay we are the stronger team. But Caldy are rarely thumped and can prove very tough opposition home or away. We haven't always being convincing away from home. Not one to be complacent about despite them being below half way. Darlington only just squeezed past them and lets be honest Darlington are a good outfit. A weekend we really need to be on our game in my opinion.

 
Sam Skennel
Re: Not counting chickens...
Sam Skennel (IP Logged)
19 February, 2018 12:17
Quote:
HoboAl
Another weekend we really need to be on our game in my opinion.

Fixed that for you (Sm101)

 
PaulRossborough
Re: Not counting chickens...
PaulRossborough (IP Logged)
19 February, 2018 14:18
Not counting chickens obviously but of the 7 replacements in a champ squad, can all 7 be used?



All views expressed in this post, are my own

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: Not counting chickens...
OldNick (IP Logged)
19 February, 2018 15:19
Quote:
PaulRossborough
Not counting chickens obviously but of the 7 replacements in a champ squad, can all 7 be used?

I believe so - however, rotational changes (taking a player off to replace a different player later) is not allowed. We would be back to the old system of each replacement being used once except for temporary replacements for blood or front row sin-binnings.

 
timdouglas1
Re: Not counting chickens...
timdouglas1 (IP Logged)
19 February, 2018 21:34
I think we should take stock here a little. Yes, it has been a remarkable season, and we have maybe surpassed all expectations so far, but how many of our current squad will cut it in the Championship if we do get promotion. A good few of our players are the wrong side of 30, so realistically, maybe only 7 or 8 of our current squad would be seen as regular starters. I would count Oram, Litchfield, Dacres, possibly Jubb,Preece White, Stevens, Maisey, Stokes and possibly Knox and Trimble given a good run of fitness as certainties. Jeannot is a great prospect, but as good as Makafi, Narraway, Boulton, Nilssen, Tuitoupou Grove and Daynes have been, I doubt they would be more than squad players at a higher level, so recruitment will be key in the close season. I am not sure what the budget will be, and I don't know how deep Jon Sharp's pockets are, but I would estimate possibly 10-12 players of a very good standard would need to come on board
Just one more aside to this, remember our pre-season friendly against Rotherham when we lost at home to them? Yes, I accept it was a friendly, but just look where they are now. The Championship, if we get there, will be a massive jump in class, but I will make sure my glass remains half full

 
sk
Re: Not counting chickens...
rustyroof (IP Logged)
19 February, 2018 22:30
A tad harsh on Phil Nilsen for one. It's less than a year since he was rated best hooker in the championship.

 
timdouglas1
Re: Not counting chickens...
timdouglas1 (IP Logged)
19 February, 2018 23:14
He will be an asset RR, but will he be a regular. I admit, I omitted to mention Tolmie and Fenner in my original post. Tolmie is class with ball in hand, but will his line out be up to scratch? Fenner is quality, but is he a centre or fly half? We must wait and see

 
sk
Re: Not counting chickens...
rustyroof (IP Logged)
19 February, 2018 23:54
I don't see why he shouldn't. Still looks fit and has been injury free. Similarly with Phil Boulton who's not that ancient at 31 and who has plenty of championship experience. I think Tom Poole, if he's recovered from his neck problem, could give it a good go at the higher level.

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