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are we mathematically safe ?
JamesC (IP Logged)
15 April, 2012 10:46
yet from the big 'R' ? I think so but am not sure. An elusive point would seal the deal on this of course

 
Re: are we mathematically safe ?
olospo (IP Logged)
15 April, 2012 10:53
The only way is if they both get bonus point wins in the next game. Newcastle beat Wasps with a bonus point win in the last game and then Wasps get a losing bonus point and a try bonus point.

This doesn't take into account our last 2 games.

 
Re: are we mathematically safe ?
mackemII (IP Logged)
15 April, 2012 10:58
Can't see Sarries conceding 4 tries next Friday night, but then I couldn't see Glaws losing at home to Newcastle.(Sm151)

 
Re: are we mathematically safe ?
Jack (IP Logged)
15 April, 2012 11:00
10 away from Newcastle , bearing in mind if Worcester beat us without a bonus win and no LBP we go 3 behind them , I cant see that were going to win either of our games. If 2 teams are level on points is it the team with most wins who come out on top? If so Newcastle will need to win both there last games with a bonus point win in both , so no , don't think the cigar can come out just yet

 
Re: are we mathematically safe ?
'Big-Al' (IP Logged)
15 April, 2012 11:11
If we get nothing from our last 2 games -

then Worcester go above us by beating us.

If Wasps win at Bath and lose at home to Newcastle and get 2 bonus points,

and if Newcastle win at home against Sarries and away at Wasps, getting try bonuses in both matches,

and if Bristol win the Championship play-offs (I think they are the only club likely to get into the semis with a suitable ground - Nottingham and Leeds could still make the semis if this afternoons results go in their favour and they also have suitable grounds for promotion),

then we can start planning next seasons away trips to Cornwall, Devon and possibly Jersey (Sm50)(Sm50)(Sm50)

 
Re: are we mathematically safe ?
JamesC (IP Logged)
15 April, 2012 11:23
so in summary we need at least a point from the Worcester match - ideally more than that

 
Re: are we mathematically safe ?
CharlieG (IP Logged)
15 April, 2012 11:53
And don't forget that Wasps must avoid going into administration.

 
Re: are we mathematically safe ?
antoinog (IP Logged)
16 April, 2012 07:36
Quote:
'Big-Al'
and if Bristol win the Championship play-offs (I think they are the only club likely to get into the semis with a suitable ground

Al, I thought Cornish had some work done down in the West Country and would now meet the ground requirements?

 
Re: are we mathematically safe ?
Sam Skennel (IP Logged)
16 April, 2012 07:47
Pirates' new stadium won't start to be built until this autumn, so they won't be eligible, and as I understand it, Welsh and Bedford only want to win so that they can collect the winners cheque - neither of them want to go up at this time because they know they can't compete. If only financially

 
Re: are we mathematically safe ?
Sam_R43 (IP Logged)
16 April, 2012 08:11
There is word around Welsh that they are looking into a ground share with either Quins or Brentford, meaning they may be able to come up if something works itself out. Sounds like a bit of a long shot though.

 
Re: are we mathematically safe ?
mackemII (IP Logged)
16 April, 2012 09:28
Bedford Blues are talking about groundshare with MK Dons or Northampton Saints.

 
Re: are we mathematically safe ?
SamB_LI (IP Logged)
16 April, 2012 09:50
Welsh are looking for a ground share with Brentford? I'm not sure the Griffin Park pitch is up to it!! Mountain goats would have difficulty navigating their way from one side to another. The centre part of the pitch is in a right state. That's mostly a tactical move to stop visiting teams from playing a passing game and enabling the home side to stick to the beloved long ball tactic.

 
Re: are we mathematically safe ?
Shawshank (IP Logged)
16 April, 2012 11:59
Doesn't the AP do an audit of all teams/grounds in the Championship that could be promoted to see if their plans/facilities are up to scratch?

In previous years I think it was around the end of March as the cut-off date...

 
Re: are we mathematically safe ?
MontrealExile (IP Logged)
16 April, 2012 12:13
Sad isn't it, that we are even discussing this topic.....



ME

RUGBY PLAYERS DO IT WITH LEATHER BALLS

 
Re: are we mathematically safe ?
Mark W-J (IP Logged)
16 April, 2012 12:14
According to this article in the Independent last week, only Bristol and Welsh have applied to be audited. We're supposedly looking at two venues in our existing catchment area - believed to the the Stoop and Griffin Park - with a possible third option 'further afield', rumoured to be as far away as Kent.

 
Re: are we mathematically safe ?
LLL (IP Logged)
16 April, 2012 12:57
Excellent! Its going to be like a few years back when we HAD to beat Bristol to ensure 100% safety (depending on what went on elsewhere).

If it does come to that I reckon we'll beat Gloucester in our most desperate never-say-die style. Now that's entertainment!

 
Re: are we mathematically safe ?
Shawshank (IP Logged)
16 April, 2012 14:19
Let's do some probability theory - I suspect there's a flaw here somewhere:

Say there's a 5% chance of Newcs beating Sarries with a 4 try BP.

And a a 10% chance of Newcs beating Wasps with a 4 try BP.

And a 50% chance of Wasps beating Bath (with or without a 4 try BP)

And a 10% chance of Wasps losing against Newcs (but with enough BP's to equal us)

And a 50% chance of LI getting nothing against Wuss

And a 33% chance of LI getting nothing against Glos

So - 5%x10%x50%x10%x50%x33% =

99.9625 % chance that we won't be relegated...?

(Sm159)

 
Re: are we mathematically safe ?
Griff (IP Logged)
16 April, 2012 14:21
That's awfully positive for you isn't SS ? (Sm6)

Remember, one in a million chances happen 9 times out of 10...

 
Re: are we mathematically safe ?
mawhis (IP Logged)
16 April, 2012 14:51
Do you know where in kent Mark?

 
Re: are we mathematically safe ?
brosie (IP Logged)
16 April, 2012 15:40
Whatever happened to 'Primacy of tenure' for [non-Premiership-heritage] promotion prospects? Not clutching at straws, but wasn't PoT a requirement for 'new' clubs?

Anyway, don't expect LI to be in the relegation equation. And I have always looked for ambitious new Premiership teams.

 
Re: are we mathematically safe ?
DrV'sHairyCraic (IP Logged)
16 April, 2012 15:48
I don't think so Brosie, Rotherham came up & used the local footy ground.

 
Re: are we mathematically safe ?
Jon_r43 (IP Logged)
16 April, 2012 17:07
Quote:
Let's do some probability theory - I suspect there's a flaw here somewhere:
Say there's a 5% chance of Newcs beating Sarries with a 4 try BP.

And a a 10% chance of Newcs beating Wasps with a 4 try BP.

And a 50% chance of Wasps beating Bath (with or without a 4 try BP)

And a 10% chance of Wasps losing against Newcs (but with enough BP's to equal us)

And a 50% chance of LI getting nothing against Wuss

And a 33% chance of LI getting nothing against Glos

So - 5%x10%x50%x10%x50%x33% =

99.9625 % chance that we won't be relegated...?



(Sm22) Explains why a certain person in our house is sure we will do go down.... must make her one of the .0375% least positive people.

 
Re: are we mathematically safe ?
JamesC (IP Logged)
16 April, 2012 17:52
I suppose a more positive note would be are we mathematically out of the running for HC qualification for next season ?

 
Re: are we mathematically safe ?
Foggy-Balla (IP Logged)
16 April, 2012 18:01
Quote:
Griff
That's awfully positive for you isn't SS ? (Sm6)
Remember, one in a million chances happen 9 times out of 10...

http://www.sandlines.net/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/Picture-2.png



Faugh-a-Ballagh!

"Our prayer is 'God save Ireland' and pour blessings on her name!"

Vestigia Nulla Retrorsum

 
Re: are we mathematically safe ?
Jon_r43 (IP Logged)
16 April, 2012 18:06
Quote:
I suppose a more positive note would be are we mathematically out of the running for HC qualification for next season ?

Yes!!

If only 6 qualify

2 x 5 point wins get us to 47 (with 8 wins, the first divider) which is currently 6th place.

However Sale have to play Glaws next weekend so either

Glaws win = 47 points but 9 wins
Sale win = 49 points and 10 wins
Draw = Sale = 47 and 9 Wins

If the 7th place goes to and english side on previous HC performance then

Wasps are in pole position but if they get relegated or go bust then Bath would be next up.

 
Re: are we mathematically safe ?
Mark W-J (IP Logged)
16 April, 2012 18:24
Quote:
mawhis
Do you know where in kent Mark?

I've heard Gillingham mentioned, but I took it as being a kind of 'untapped market in the home counties with a football stadium we can camp in' late-night drinking type conversation. I think that it's about as likely as, well...Wasps and Newcastle staying up.

What are the odds on that, Shawshank?

 
Re: are we mathematically safe ?
mawhis (IP Logged)
17 April, 2012 08:30
I live in chatham, so that would be quite good for me! The gills are supposedly leaving the Priestfield soon though. The club chairman is threatening to move the club elsewhere if the council don't give him planning permission for a new stadium.

 
Re: are we mathematically safe ?
swindonirish (IP Logged)
17 April, 2012 09:42
They like playing in front of empty stands too!!


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