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Cheers QQ

Excellent i love this!!!
Starting with a win is very important this season. Beating irish, is essential to Quins getting a god start and then taking that into the Northampton and Gloucester games, all of which are very important.

They are all so close, we could
a) end up travelling to Worcester being 3 wins out of three or
b) looking for our first win

Thanks, QQ.

It really does put the focus on that early run of games. Quins have to use the stability of the squad to win home games against teams that have a big RWC contingent, a load of new players to integrate or both.

I reckon the Tigers and Exeter matches at the end of October could also be critical. By 18 October, we should have Danny back in action, but Tigers will probably still be missing an army of England players. There may never be a better chance to take the game to them at Welford Road. Unless injuries to the England squad see late call-ups for Ugo and Chris...

By the same token, Exeter will come to Quins with a settled team and the ambition to make good on all those predictions that they'll finish ahead of us, whereas Quins will be coming off the back of a string of tough games. The banana skin potential is quite high.

Like a cuckoo heralding the spring the 'Roadmap Post' heralds in the new season. Its a post I have begun to appreciate more over time and this latest is the best yet.

Thoughtful analysis coupled with subtle prediction. Hopefully it will be retained for reference in the left column as it was last year?

I note this weekends away game is chalked as a 1 pointer. My assumption would be that although 'away' it is in fact 'neutral' and that swings the win-o-meter back towards us. I hope Conor has this as a 4 point must win!

Thank you QQ

Quote:

Nev's Left Boot
Starting with a win is very important this season. Beating irish, is essential to Quins getting a god start and then taking that into the Northampton and Gloucester games, all of which are very important.

So you disagree with our DOR, then?

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BB

Very good read and looking forward to the strat of teh season more and more. However you have dubbed the last game against sale as a home game when it is away however this should not change the predictions just thought you might want to know.

Quote:

Brown Bottle

Quote:

Nev's Left Boot
Starting with a win is very important this season. Beating irish, is essential to Quins getting a god start and then taking that into the Northampton and Gloucester games, all of which are very important.

So you disagree with our DOR, then?

In NLB's defence, What COS says to the press contains a good deal of expectation management as far as the fans are concerned and man management as far as the players are concerned. If he says that the LI game is absolutely vital and will show whether we are top 4 contenders or not, what happens if we lose?

In private, I would imagine that COS like the rest of us, believes that LI at HQ represents the type of game we must win if we are to show that we have progressed from last season.

Thanks. Can we keep this pinned on the sidebar for the season

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Nunquam Dormio

I just think we need a win in the bank early, to build confidence, we lose to Irish then get beaten at home by Northampton and Gloucester we are only going to be making 10th in the League, Not good enough...

Excellent and incisive article, thanks QQ.

Yes I agree, we should be looking for a win against LI on Sat.

Cheers, very useful article. I agree with several others in that this season more than ever it will be crucial to get a good start while other teams are missing a lot of key players.

A very interesting slant on the season ahead.

It's very difficult to know what effect the WRC absentees will have on the early games. Irish appear to have lost 8 of their squad while I think Quins only 4.

So there must be a good chance of a win at HQ.

Three games in, and exceeding all expectations. I now see why COS emphasised the importance of next week at his press conference, though. A fourth win would see us very nicely positioned.

Be good to keep this up the top on a sticky. The next two matches are "must wins" wherever we end up. Having seen what Exeter achieved, I am hopeful of more than 0 points at Welford Road

Now we have built some momentum and confidence, we need to build on it. THe squad should travel with the view to winning at Worcester, then Sale at home should also be viewed as winnable. Then we go to Welford Road possibly un-beaten and they will still be without a large number of their RWC players.

I hope COS can keep the squad focussed and get them taking the one game at a time mantra into the games.

COYQ

Quote:

Nigel_B
Be good to keep this up the top on a sticky. The next two matches are "must wins" wherever we end up. Having seen what Exeter achieved, I am hopeful of more than 0 points at Welford Road

It's a permanemt fixture on the left hand sidebar, so no need to sticky it.

We've taken 1 point at Welford Road in most recent years, but I want to see us beat Tigers this year, home or away, and the RWC, plus respective current form, means away may actually be our best bet.

Nice to be sitting pretty on top of the AV.

The Wuzz game is a 'must win' as part of the package needed for a top 6 finish. To lose it would undo the bonus of the win against Irish but Quins would remain firmly on target for HC qualification if not a first place finish.

It means Quins are ahead of the game and Conor can be a bit more relaxed at his post match interviews but we are going through a set of games that Quins should be winning anyway.

Welford Road, and a weakened Tiggers squad, will be a truer test of this season's potential finish.

Quote:

Quaking Quin
we are going through a set of games that Quins should be winning anyway

That's funny, I thought

Quote:

Quaking Quin
There will be some of the closest home and away games of the season in the first 5 rounds

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 23/09/2011 07:36 by Quin Like Flint.

Quote:

Quin Like Flint

Quote:

Quaking Quin
we are going through a set of games that Quins should be winning anyway

That's funny, I thought that

I wouldn't expect an "away win" at Irish even if we were contesting for honours. We lost to that bunch 3 times at home in the bloodgate season and we finished second!

The first 6 rounds of this season are a massive anomaly given the RWC hence teams like Leicester whose squad has been ravaged having an average start and unaffected teams like Exeter and to some extent Sale having good starts. That said, when the likes of Leicester and Saints get their stars back, expect the league to change shape again.

I believe our strength in depth (repeated A-League south champtions and losing finalists to leicester) has stood us in good stead to make such a good start. We also have the benefit of having easily the best player not at the RWC in Nick Evans. It's worth noting that our starting lineup these days has grown together and is very tight knit.

JTH gives a small insight into the superb start...

[www.hounslowchronicle.co.uk]

Despite winning our 1st 4 games were only 3 points ahead of where we need to be to finish 6th and have 5 points predicted against Sale. Means a win next weekend is essential to keep the great start going.

Although we would have a chance to make that up against relegation zone strugglers Leicester in the following game



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 26/09/2011 11:40 by woe quin.

I think it took us something like 8 games to get 17 points last season.

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Reinstate the Fulham 1!

Quote:

Quinten Poulsen
I think it took us something like 8 games to get 17 points last season.

At the equivalent point in the season last year, we had 9 points, and yes, it was round 8 where we reached 17 points. So, I think we're doing rather well

Quote:

woe quin
Although we would have a chance to make that up against relegation zone strugglers Leicester in the following game

It does sound nice, saying "Relegation" and "Leicester" in the same sentence

Welll ahead of the roadmap :-)

I've been trying to make sense of where we are in relation to the roadmap.

4th place requires us to get 46 points from 11 home games, and 16 points from 11 away games.

Right now, we have 14 points from 3 home games - about 10% ahead of schedule, but having played some weakened teams. But the plan calls for the Stoop to be a fortress - only losing one remaining home game (against Leicester). That loss needs to be offset by 4 bonus points. We've got one unplanned bonus point from these first six matches. So far, so good.

Where we're really making ground is in away games. We've got 12 points from our first three games, versus a planned 6. LBPs in half our remaining away games would keep us on track for 4th, but there are several games that could yield more - Wasps, Exeter, Newcastle. An away bonus point win at Sale, which is in the plan, looks unlikely - but may not now be needed.

Overall, Quins are in great shape for the season as long as they keep winning at home, and are competitive away.

The measure of the success so far is that we dropped a point we could and possibly should have picked up.

At Leicester.

Nick Easter is going to have to work hard and prove he is fully fit if he wants to make the side.

Let's hope we avoid major injury and keep winning and do not take anything for granted.

Camquin

Bump to the top ahead by nine points!!

So we're currently on course to finish above 1st place

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RESPECT THE REF - NO REF, NO GAME!

Nothing wrong with aiming high!

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===================================================
The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.

Albert Einstein

Quote:

Angostura
So we're currently on course to finish above 1st place

That would explain why all the press coverage is about Sarries. Quins are doing so well that they are off the top of the table.

Another way to see how we are progressing is to compare the games so far this year with the equivalent fixtures from last season.

2011-2012

London Irish Away = 4
Northampton Home = 4
Gloucester Home = 5
Worcester Away = 4
Sale Home = 5
Leicester Away = 4
Exeter Home = 4
Bath Away = 4

Total 34 points


Respective fixtures 2010-2011

London Irish Away = 1
Northampton Home = 1
Gloucester Home = 5
Leeds Away = 5
Sale Home = 4
Leicester Away = 1
Exeter Home = 5
Bath Away = 1

Total 23 points

Yes I think I had better not go away before 12 May!

Me thinks that someone built a new road. Garmin needs to update the Roadmap

We just need to win all our H games to finish top 6 forget the A unless we loose to Tiggers and Sarries and then we panic!

Quote:

Quartermaster
Another way to see how we are progressing is to compare the games so far this year with the equivalent fixtures from last season.
2011-2012

London Irish Away = 4
Northampton Home = 4
Gloucester Home = 5
Worcester Away = 4
Sale Home = 5
Leicester Away = 4
Exeter Home = 4
Bath Away = 4
Newcastle Home = 5

Total 39 points


Respective fixtures 2010-2011

London Irish Away = 1
Northampton Home = 1
Gloucester Home = 5
Leeds Away = 5
Sale Home = 4
Leicester Away = 1
Exeter Home = 5
Bath Away = 1
Newcastle Home = 4

Total 27 points

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Nunquam Dormio

Well 39 points and if we are targeting first Conor has us to win both Wasps tomorrow and and Sarries at BG4. To achieve those two wins will be great but we have back to back with Toulouse in between. What is interesting will be the gap that opens up underneath Sarries if they win tomorrow.

Well, the gap has opened up nicely. Given there's so little between the middle 8 teams (and even Worcester is pretty close), you might only need 58 points to make the Top 4 - a total Quins are quite capable of racking up by the time they've faced Worcester at home.

Still, the priority has to be to get through the two Toulouse games. My money's on a close win at home and then the rematch being the first loss of the season. It will hurt, but there's no shame in losing to Toulouse at Toulouse.

Then COS can take stock, look at who's left standing, and decide how to marshall his forces for the second half of the season.

One thing he'll need to be thinking about is how to give the Baby Quins enough game time to be ready to step up come the 6N. We could be lending half our pack to the England cause (Robshaw and Easter almost certainly, Marler, Gray and Robson looking increasingly probable. Wallace is not ready yet. [jedi voice] This isn't the flanker you're looking for. You don't need to see him in an England shirt. He can go on his way [/jedi voice]). Jordan and George's injuries might prove to be a blessing in disguise for Quins, as long as we can keep at least a couple of centres fit until they are back.

Quote:

poorfour
.....My money's on a close win at home and then the rematch being the first loss of the season. It will hurt, but there's no shame in losing to Toulouse at Toulouse.

If Quins can beat Munster at Thomaond Park they have to believe they can beat Toulouse at Toulouse. Yes I think we can shade Toulouse at home, but I'm travelling to Toulouse to see a Quins win!

So am I, Nigel_B, so am I...

Well, and some of that sausage...

There's no doubt they can beat Toulouse at home and it would be a major statement if they do.

I'm just preparing myself for the idea that the run has to end sometime, somewhere, and I think that Stade Toulousain is the most probable and potentially least damaging place for it to happen.

Which said, the way the team is playing, they could win both matches. And if they were to do that, is there any team, at any venue in Europe that would hold any fear?

Anyway, enough of this off-topic stuff. This is a Premiership thread, and Quins are totally in charge of the table. However, we are one TBP behind schedule, and that is not acceptable. I expect a four try demolition of Saracens at BG4 - looking possible given how Saints and LI took the game to them. Sarries play a game that relies on penalties and they don't cough up many chances. But Quins don't give many penalties, and don't need many chances.

Quote:

Nigel_B

Quote:

poorfour
.....My money's on a close win at home and then the rematch being the first loss of the season. It will hurt, but there's no shame in losing to Toulouse at Toulouse.

If Quins can beat Munster at Thomaond Park they have to believe they can beat Toulouse at Toulouse. Yes I think we can shade Toulouse at home, but I'm travelling to Toulouse to see a Quins win!

I think this Quins team have the belief that they can beat anyone, anywhere... And the way they are playing as a team, the way the younger guys have stepped up, who's to question that?

Quote:

Quartermaster
Another way to see how we are progressing is to compare the games so far this year with the equivalent fixtures from last season.
2011-2012

London Irish Away = 4
Northampton Home = 4
Gloucester Home = 5
Worcester Away = 4
Sale Home = 5
Leicester Away = 4
Exeter Home = 4
Bath Away = 4
Newcastle Home = 5
Wasps Away = 4

Total 43 points


Respective fixtures 2010-2011

London Irish Away = 1
Northampton Home = 1
Gloucester Home = 5
Leeds Away = 5
Sale Home = 4
Leicester Away = 1
Exeter Home = 5
Bath Away = 1
Newcastle Home = 4
Wasps Away = 2

Total 29 points

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Nunquam Dormio

At the beginning of 2012 we do appear to have exceeded every prediction of the roadmap .

Now comes the difficult bit - turning points into prizes .

blakedownquin, not quite, the Roadmap has the Sarries BG4 as a must win game if we are to make top 4. Still on for a top 6 finish.

However, it's reallly about every game being taken as it comes. The roadmap has Friday at FG as a losing BP.

However, the team are going there to win. Every match as it comes is the mantra and it's working.

Ten games to go - 50 points available.
Mathematically we could still be relegated.
Therefore we still need to win every game.

Camquin

"Must Wins" are only Must Wins is we lose our "Expected Losses".

That hasn't happened this year. What is happening is the chasing pack position 3 - 8 are all taking points off each other.

I am guessing we only need another 2 wins to get to the play-offs and perhaps 3 for a home semi. Depends a bit of the expected Leicester charge up the table.

I think we are now seeing the final shape of the table:

Quins and Sarries home semi
Tigers and Saints away semi
HC for Chiefs and Sale
Relegation for Falcons

Of course the fly in the ointment is the 6N and who will be called up. Saints and Tigers seemed to fall apart this year without their internationals. Maybe the new regime won't affect them so much.

Less worried about our ability to cope providing we can remain with a fit squad.

Quote:

Camquin
Ten games to go - 50 points available.
Mathematically we could still be relegated.
Therefore we still need to win every game.

Camquin

Camquin, if Newcastle were to have 10 five point vicrtories and we didn't score another point that would put them on 61 and us (still) on 47. However. it's not mathematically probable that all the other teams could score enough points to overtake our 47 so we are safe from relegation. I also believe we have done enough to secure a top six finish. A play off is not yet guaranteed.

The targets in the table are based on historical patterns - i.e. what points total has been needed for each position in the past. The relegation one is, I believe, the most variable one, but I don't think anyone's ever been relegated on 47 points so it's reasonable to assume we're safe unless things take a drastic change for the worst.

Given the shape of the season, with most teams being closely matched, a top 6 spot also seems likely. Top 4 and Top 2 may well depend on the 6N and EPS absences, but Saints and Tigers have both looked more vulnerable to losing squad members than Quins, and we have several strong but non-EPS players who will be back and fresh before the 6N (fingers crossed for Olly, Karl and George).

Nothing is certain, but Quins couldn't be much better placed, could they?

Quote:

poorfour
Nothing is certain, but Quins couldn't be much better placed, could they?

Exactly Poorfour, and we have now have more experienced pool of second string players to replace those who are likely to be called up, most likely to be Care, Robshaw and Brown, possibly Monye and outside chance of losing Robson too. Perhaps a similar number in Saxons, so perhaps ~ 6 - 8 in total?

I think the Saxon games are concurrent with =LV games which is why that competition is a suck-it-and-see and find out if you make the semis before you take it seriously.

Our 6N games are all against teams who won't be too effected

It will be a real test of squad depth



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/01/2012 16:24 by Salon Generali.

According to the Roadmap ,the win against Worcester means we are now guaranteed Heineken Cup Rugby next year .Of course , this is not the limit of our ambitions but given the dire predictions at the start of the season , everyone at Quins has done a marvellous job so far .

Thought it may be worth bumping this up to see where we are. Looks like we are about 4 points ahead of the roadmap. So
Not too bad

Since we're still top of the league and six points clear I assumed we'd be so far off the map that we'd be in that area on the edge marked "here be dragons"!

Quote:

DOK
Since we're still top of the league and six points clear I assumed we'd be so far off the map that we'd be in that area on the edge marked "here be dragons"!

But the Dragons play in the Rabo, not the AP.





I'll get me coat.

Interesting to look at this with hindsight.

40pts was pessimistic for survival -34 would have been enough due to the poor form of both Budgies ad Pests. Tough if we had gifted them points then perhaps we would have needs the 40.

54 for HC - looks like 50 will be enough to see any side into the HC. Neither Bath not Gloucester can catch that, but both could end on 49.

62 for top four - might be shy - Exeter could get to 63 and miss out to Saints.

76 to take top spot. Well we will need to beat Sale but we do not need the bonus. 75 points will do as we would be ahead on number of wins even if Tiggers get the bonus against Bath.

Given these were made before the start of the season, I would say it was pretty close. Frankly if they were more accurate, I would be asking COS for next weeks lottery numbers.

Camquin

Is this the first time this season we have actually been bang on the roadmap points total?

I think the accuracy is simply down to the fact that the AP generally plays out quite similarly each year. Different teams perform, but the total scores are ultimately quite similar. The "pessimism" around the relegation slot is based on the highest score that anyone has had to achieve in order to secure 11th place.

Written in August I take my hat off to QQ identifying the away game against Sale as "*Must Win Game". In context of next weeks game and the implications for a home semi its a real understatement.

Fantastic analysis. I also hope that Sky and the Sunday Times who predicted we will achieve 7th or 8th take an appropriately large chunk of humble pie.

And Austin Healey commended for accurately predicting our "dark horses" for the premiership prediction...

75 points achieved this historic milestone .17 wins and 1 draw . It could be argued that we outperformed as the roadmap predicted 6 defeats .
All in all an awesome achievement from everyone .

Scarily close at the top of the table, though. 3 points separating the top 3 - phew.

Conversely, it was slightly easier to avoid relegation, get an HEC place or sneak into the Top 4 than the roadmap predicted.

It seems sure to be tougher next season - no RWC to distract Tigers, more Quins away on EPS duty - but let's enjoy the moment. It's a significant achievement.

Oh, and you appear to have missed out the crucial "Win semi-final" and "Win final" steps. Good thing Conor remembered to scribble them on a post it and stick them on the bottom of the chart.