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The Run In
Quin Like Flint (IP Logged)
19 February, 2012 16:49
That's round 15 done then. So, how will the remaining games pan out? Here is my attempt at pinning the points on the donkey.

As it stands:
==============================
  Team        P  W  D L BP PTS
1 Harlequins  15 13 0 2 3  55
2 Saracens    15 11 1 3 3  49
3 Northampton 15 9  0 6 5  41
4 Leicester   15 8  1 6 6  40
5 Exeter      15 8  0 7 7  39
6 Gloucester  15 7  1 7 7  37
============================== 

Top 6 Remaining Fixtures    (predicted points)

Worcester v Saracens        (1/4)
Exeter v Bath               (4/1)
Gloucester v Harlequins     (4/1)
Leicester v Newcastle       (4/1)
London Irish v Northampton  (4/1)

Newcastle v Harlequins      (1/4)
Exeter v Sale               (4/1)
Leicester v Gloucester      (4/1)
Saracens v Northampton      (4/1)

Sale v Saracens             (4/1)
Gloucester v Exeter         (4/0)
Harlequins v Bath           (4/0)
Northampton v Wasps         (5/0)
London Irish v Leicester    (4/0)

Bath v Northampton          (1/4)
Exeter v London Irish       (4/1)
Leicester v Worcester       (4/0)
Saracens v Harlequins       (4/1)
Wasps v Gloucester          (0/4)

Gloucester v Newcastle      (5/0)
Harlequins v Wasps          (5/0)
London Irish v Saracens     (0/4)
Northampton v Leicester     (4/1)
Worcester v Exeter          (4/1)

Newcastle v Saracens        (1/4)
Gloucester v Sale           (4/0)
Harlequins v Leicester      (4/0)
Exeter v Northampton        (1/4)

Leicester v Bath            (4/0)
London Irish v Gloucester   (4/1)
Northampton v Worcester     (4/0)
Sale v Harlequins           (1/4)
Saracens v Exeter           (4/0)

Predicted final table:
===============================
  Team        P  W  D L  BP PTS
1 Harlequins  22 18 0 4  6  78
2 Saracens    22 17 1 4  4  74
3 Northampton 22 14 0 8  8  62
4 Gloucester  22 12 1 9  10 60
5 Leicester   22 12 1 9  7  57
6 Exeter      22 11 0 11 9  53
===============================

http://scarletfever.org/forum/uploads/5658/rob.jpg

Go on, have a go. It's just a bit of fun!

 
Re: The Run In
Salon Generali (IP Logged)
19 February, 2012 18:04
It is the home semi that is important

This is what I think would be the worst case (rather than a prediction)...and we still get a home semi.

Didn't do Glos or Exe as I don't think they could get a home semi.


QUINS
Gloucester Rugby - 1
Newcastle Falcons - 1
Bath Rugby - 4
Saracens - 0
Wasps - 4
Tigers - 0
Sale - 4
TOTAL 69

SARRIES
Worcester Warriors - 4
Northampton Saints - 4
Sale Sharks - 4
Harlequins - 4
London Irish - 4
Newcastle Falcons - 4
Exeter Chiefs - 1
TOTAL 74

TIGERS
Newcastle Falcons - 5
Gloucester Rugby - 4
London Irish - 4
Worcester Warriors - 4
Northampton Saints - 0
Harlequins - 4
Bath Rugby - 5
TOTAL 66

SAINTS
London Irish - 4
Saracens - 1
London Wasps - 5
Bath Rugby - 4
Leicester Tigers - 4
Exeter Chiefs - 4
Worcester Warriors - 4
TOTAL 68

So 4 wins gets us home semi (but maybe we could even manage with 3)



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 19/02/2012 18:08 by Salon Generali.

 
Re: The Run In
Quin Like Flint (IP Logged)
19 February, 2012 18:25
Know what you mean, but I don't think a home semi will actually count for much if we end up just scraping it like that. Not that you are saying we will (Sm13)

 
Re: The Run In
Nev's Left Boot (IP Logged)
19 February, 2012 18:46
It's also important who we play -

i would prefer a home semi against Leicester than Northampton -

just think our game causes them more problems.

Also Sarries and Northampton would smash the bells out of each other.

 
Re: The Run In
Salon Generali (IP Logged)
19 February, 2012 18:57
Quote:
i would prefer a home semi against Leicester than Northampton

I think the other way round for 2 reasons. Firstly we have a much better record against Saints at home, secondly the Leicester scrum pretty well destroyed Sarries today (only saw the 2nd half)

 
Re: The Run In
quinshead (IP Logged)
19 February, 2012 19:09
Agree salon we do t have a good record against the Tigers

 
Re: The Run In
Black Bear (IP Logged)
19 February, 2012 19:15
I think Glaws are very dangerous at the moment and will win all of their matches with bonus point victories against all of the teams except Leicester and us. Hopefully this prediction has put the mockers on them.

 
Re: The Run In
Nev's Left Boot (IP Logged)
19 February, 2012 19:21
Black Bear - I agree that Gloucester are the coming team and like us, as the ground gets firmer they will cause more and more problems.

 
Re: The Run In
Salon Generali (IP Logged)
19 February, 2012 19:31
What I would would ask the Easter Bunny is a home semi against Chiefs and a final against Saints

Total wipe-out of all the "old guard"(Sm118)

 
Re: The Run In
Black Bear (IP Logged)
19 February, 2012 19:57
Who's going down then?

 
Re: The Run In
Quin Like Flint (IP Logged)
19 February, 2012 20:01
Wasps v Newcastle last day of the season is looking pretty important.

 
Re: The Run In
Nev's Left Boot (IP Logged)
19 February, 2012 20:02
If you'd ask me last week, i would have said Newcastle, but wasps seem to have lost there way quite drastically. THey have a much more talented squad but are squandering chances.

As newcastle, know what they need to do - I hope Dai can get the right game on the park and drag wasps away from the precipice but it will require a little lady luck.

THe premiership is a better competition with Wasps, former champions of Europe and England, than perennial relegations strugglers Newcastle -

Just my view point

 
Re: The Run In
Quin Like Flint (IP Logged)
19 February, 2012 20:09
Quote:
Nev's Left Boot
perennial relegations strugglers Newcastle

Incorrect. Perennially bottom half, yes.

 
Re: The Run In
JonSalinger (IP Logged)
19 February, 2012 20:18
To add to the working out of the points and where Quins might finish, the last three remaining Home fixtures - Bath (24/03), Wasps (14/04) and Tigers (21/04) - will all be pushing sellouts, so if you haven't got your tickets yet or looking to purchase additional tickets book them now!

You've been warned

Jon

 
Re: The Run In
QuinAlan (IP Logged)
19 February, 2012 20:39
Leicester at home will be massive!

 
Re: The Run In
Heath Quinn (IP Logged)
19 February, 2012 20:39
Quarter past eight on a Sunday, and your selling tickets!

That is dedication to the cause!!!!

(Sm152)

 
Re: The Run In
Nev's Left Boot (IP Logged)
19 February, 2012 20:42
10/11 - 11th
09/10 - 9th
08/09 - 10th
07/08 - 11th
06/07 - 9th

Newcastle finish spots for last 5 years - they have been in the relegation battle for everyone

in 05/06 they finished 7th, looking good you may think, but on closer inspection 4 points off of 11th place.

 
Re: The Run In
Quin Like Flint (IP Logged)
19 February, 2012 20:49
Quote:
Nev's Left Boot
10/11 - 11th
09/10 - 9th
08/09 - 10th
07/08 - 11th
06/07 - 9th

Newcastle finish spots for last 5 years - they have been in the relegation battle for everyone

in 05/06 they finished 7th, looking good you may think, but on closer inspection 4 points off of 11th place.

and in four of the five years you quote they finished 9, 27, 22 and 11 points clear of last place despite being in the bottom three! It is only this season and last that they have looked in real danger of going down.

 
Re: The Run In
kevin (IP Logged)
19 February, 2012 21:10
(Sm105)(Sm2)(Sm8)(Sm63)
Wouldn't grieve if Wasps were to go down. I just don't have the same romantic notion that historical greatness counts for much in sport.

 
Re: The Run In
Nev's Left Boot (IP Logged)
19 February, 2012 21:16
Agreed Kevin, and it maybe as carthartic for them as it was for us. But do feel that they offer the league a little more than Newcastle.

 
Re: The Run In
kevin (IP Logged)
19 February, 2012 21:27
Current counts. If Wasps finish below Newcastle then it is the latter that offers more. and maybe Falcons are a more sound financial concern. Wasps are a mess. Just see if the new owners sink in cash by way of buying in talent from abroad to the detriment of English rugby. And/Or then scarper when they realise Wasps are not a going concern. No ground, no decent academy, no decent squad to build on, dwindling support.

Would you buy into them?

 
Re: The Run In
Harley Quin (IP Logged)
19 February, 2012 21:41
Given the 'gracious' way anybody associated with Wasps treated us in our relegation year, I would really enjoy them having to deal with the same problem! ;-)

 
Re: The Run In
kevin (IP Logged)
19 February, 2012 21:50
Didn't like to bring that up myself but as you have then who am i to disagree? The dangerous scenario for Wasps is that they dont have the base to bounce back. Hartlepool anybody?

 
Re: The Run In
Jus-Quin-Time (IP Logged)
20 February, 2012 00:02
Perhaps someone at Wasps should go and look at a merger with a club like Blackheath. Blackheath are well established, have a long history (like Wasps), but they also have a ground and a potential support base in the SE ripe for development. An injection of cash and 'Blackheath Wasps' might have a future?

It would also allow Wasps to reconnect with their historic London link.

Too much red wine with Sunday dinner...

 
Re: The Run In
Grumpy Bloke (IP Logged)
20 February, 2012 01:12
One game at a time, one game at a time. Gloucester away this week is going to be nip and tuck !! I just hope Leicester have shown everyone how to beat Sarries, they never gave up and Murphy proved why a captain can be so important. We just need to work out how to beat Northampton in the final.

 
Re: The Run In
Duncan Keene (IP Logged)
20 February, 2012 12:09
Completely Tigers-centric guesswork below...

Very early to say what will happen, but the matches between the top 6 will be key.

As it stands:
==============================
Team P W D L BP PTS
1 Harlequins 15 13 0 2 3 55
2 Saracens 15 11 1 3 3 49
3 Northampton 15 9 0 6 5 41
4 Leicester 15 8 1 6 6 40
5 Exeter 15 8 0 7 7 39
6 Gloucester 15 7 1 7 7 37
==============================

Top 6 Remaining Fixtures (predicted points)

Worcester v Saracens (1/4)
Exeter v Bath (4/0)
Gloucester v Harlequins (4/1)
Leicester v Newcastle (5/0)
London Irish v Northampton (1/4)

Newcastle v Harlequins (4/1)
Exeter v Sale (4/1)
Leicester v Gloucester (4/0)
Saracens v Northampton (4/1)

Sale v Saracens (1/4)
Gloucester v Exeter (4/0)
Harlequins v Bath (5/0)
Northampton v Wasps (5/0)
London Irish v Leicester (1/4)

Bath v Northampton (4/1)
Exeter v London Irish (4/1)
Leicester v Worcester (5/0)
Saracens v Harlequins (4/0)
Wasps v Gloucester (0/4)

Gloucester v Newcastle (4/1)
Harlequins v Wasps (4/1)
London Irish v Saracens (1/4)
Northampton v Leicester (2/2)
Worcester v Exeter (1/4)

Newcastle v Saracens (1/4)
Gloucester v Sale (4/0)
Harlequins v Leicester (1/4)
Exeter v Northampton (4/1)

Leicester v Bath (5/0)
London Irish v Gloucester (5/0)
Northampton v Worcester (5/0)
Sale v Harlequins (1/4)
Saracens v Exeter (5/0)

Predicted final table:
===============================
Team P PTS
1 Saracens 22 78
2 Harlequins 22 71
3 Leicester 22 69
4 Northampton 22 60
5 Exeter 22 59
6 Gloucester 22 57
===============================

Which would leave us vs you at the Stoop...

 
Re: The Run In
Aladquin (IP Logged)
20 February, 2012 13:20
Bearing in mind where I work, I would LOVE a home Semi against Gloucester, as long as we win!

But I will be happy if we win on saturday! shortest ever journey to a quins match!

 
Re: The Run In
Rocker (IP Logged)
20 February, 2012 17:46
I can't see why everyone think we'll only get 1 point off of Budgies. I'm thinking more along the lines of 4 or 5. I know that we don't have a great record against them away, but seriously! I'm expecting us to finish at least second, we have a six point lead over Sarries.

The pivotal matches are Sarries and Tiggers for me. If we get 4 or 5 from Newcastle then I think we can assume a home semi.

 
Re: The Run In
Quin Like Flint (IP Logged)
20 February, 2012 17:59
Quote:
Rocker
I can't see why everyone think we'll only get 1 point off of Budgies.

Everyone? SG was giving a "worst case" and Duncan Keene is a (self-confessed) Tigers fan.

 
Re: The Run In
clalan (IP Logged)
20 February, 2012 18:04
Quin Like Flint hope you do not mind but i've copied your hard work onto our site, for a discussion as us rugby supporter do.
Thankyou. (Sm128)

All the best, your boys have played some great rugby this season.



East Terrace Central
Our roads are paved with hope, and there are no stop signs.
"COME ON EXE!"

 
Re: The Run In
Quin Like Flint (IP Logged)
20 February, 2012 18:15
No worries, Clalan, no worries.

 
Re: The Run In
Rugby101 (IP Logged)
20 February, 2012 18:23
Think its done the rounds QLF!

 
Re: The Run In
Black Bear (IP Logged)
20 February, 2012 19:58
Newcastle may not have the big names but their strategy is based on waiting/forcing other teams to make mistakes for points machine Gopperth to profit. They also have a new management team to turn things around.

On paper, we should win as long as we keep our cool and don't give Gopperth the opportunities to extend his points tallies.

Kingston park has not been a happy hunting ground for us either. We could even draw.

 
Re: The Run In
ikdrf (IP Logged)
20 February, 2012 23:43
If there is one defeat I can easily tolerate in the run-in it is at Newcastle. I really think it will be good on so many levels if they survive.

 
Re: The Run In
Nigel_B (IP Logged)
21 February, 2012 16:32
Quote:
ikdrf
If there is one defeat I can easily tolerate in the run-in it is at Newcastle. I really think it will be good on so many levels if they survive.

No, I could not tolerate a defeat against Newcastle. Yes they are languishing at the foot of the table, however, they are there because they have not been very good. If they beat us it means we would be worse and set us up as a target for every other team.

We must be very clinical and get a 5 point win. Let Newcastle scrabble for points against other teams. Apart from hosting us they are away to Tiggers and Wuss, home to Sale and Sarries. If they can get some BP losses, sneak a win they could be within 4 points of Pests which would set up that last fixture as a real fight to survive.

 
Re: The Run In
T-Bone (IP Logged)
21 February, 2012 17:39
I really wouldn't be that upset if Newcastle go down. They have admittedly brought through a lot of decent young players and it's a shame they can't hold on to them but I can't say I ever look forward to watching any of their matches. I don't want any team in particular to go down and hve no issue with their fans, but I don't think that the fact that there's lack of decent teams in that part of the country means they need to stay up for the greater good

 
Re: The Run In
WanderQUIN (IP Logged)
21 February, 2012 18:02
Quote:
kevin
(Sm105)(Sm2)(Sm8)(Sm63) Wouldn't grieve if Wasps were to go down. I just don't have the same romantic notion that historical greatness counts for much in sport.

That would complete the recovery of 2005 and put the cherry on the Quins cake!

 
Re: The Run In
Black Bear (IP Logged)
22 February, 2012 17:40
It is cheaper to travel to Pests that Budgies,

Can never forgive them for that cup victory when we should have had the throw in at the last minute.

But would still rather it was Pests that went down

 
Re: The Run In
baggie (IP Logged)
22 February, 2012 19:03
Quote:
Black Bear
It is cheaper to travel to Pests that Budgies,


Speak for yourself !!

Leeds, Sale & Newcastle were my "home" games ... in that order.

We've lost Leeds and they are unlikely to come back in the short term ... I don't want to lose Newcastle as well !

 
Re: The Run In
Quin Like Flint (IP Logged)
26 February, 2012 17:54
Update. Gloucester v Quins was the only one to go exactly as predicted (Sm13). Some interesting games in the next round: 2nd v 3rd, 4th v 5th and 6th v 7th.


As it stands:
==============================
  Team        P  W  D L BP PTS
1 Harlequins  16 13 0 3 4  56
2 Saracens    16 11 1 4 4  50
3 Northampton 16 10 0 6 6  46
4 Leicester   16 9  1 6 7  45
5 Gloucester  16 8  1 7 7  41
6 Exeter      16 8  0 8 8  40
============================== 

Top 6 Remaining Fixtures    (predicted points)

Newcastle v Harlequins      (1/4)
Exeter v Sale               (4/1)
Leicester v Gloucester      (4/1)
Saracens v Northampton      (4/1)

Sale v Saracens             (4/1)
Gloucester v Exeter         (4/0)
Harlequins v Bath           (4/0)
Northampton v Wasps         (5/0)
London Irish v Leicester    (4/0)

Bath v Northampton          (1/4)
Exeter v London Irish       (4/1)
Leicester v Worcester       (4/0)
Saracens v Harlequins       (4/1)
Wasps v Gloucester          (0/4)

Gloucester v Newcastle      (5/0)
Harlequins v Wasps          (5/0)
London Irish v Saracens     (0/4)
Northampton v Leicester     (4/1)
Worcester v Exeter          (4/1)

Newcastle v Saracens        (1/4)
Gloucester v Sale           (4/0)
Harlequins v Leicester      (4/0)
Exeter v Northampton        (1/4)

Leicester v Bath            (4/0)
London Irish v Gloucester   (4/1)
Northampton v Worcester     (4/0)
Sale v Harlequins           (1/4)
Saracens v Exeter           (4/0)

Predicted final table:
===============================
  Team        P  W  D L  BP PTS
1 Harlequins  22 18 0 4  6  78
2 Saracens    22 16 1 5  5  71
3 Northampton 22 15 0 7  8  66
4 Gloucester  22 12 1 9  10 60
5 Leicester   22 12 1 9  8  58
6 Exeter      22 10 0 12 10 50
=============================== 


 
Re: The Run In
Go Quins Go! (IP Logged)
27 February, 2012 13:19
I can't see Sale denying Saracens a win at Edgeley Park and Quins v Tigers at The Stoop can never be claimed before the event, so IMHO it all comes down to the Wembley game...



GQG.

 
Re: The Run In
Rugby101 (IP Logged)
27 February, 2012 13:22
We'll beat Bath and Wasps at home and lose the rest. We should pick up a couple of LBPs though.

 
Re: The Run In
Go Quins Go! (IP Logged)
27 February, 2012 13:37
Surely wins at Newcastle and Sale have got to be reasonable expectations even if they are not certainties?

That would leave:

Three probable wins (Newcastle, Bath, Wasps)
Two probable losses (Saracens, Leicester)
One close call (Sale)

And my guess would be 14-15 points leaving us with 70-ish points. In 4 of the last 5 seasons that has been enough for 3rd place but this year should be enough for 2nd. One more win (Sale or Tigers?) should be enough for top.



GQG.

 
Re: The Run In
Sketchley (IP Logged)
27 February, 2012 13:43
Gloucester have a very interesting run in and no Europe or LV cup to get in the way. I'd have them beating Leicester next week unless England release a few players that is, even then I'd still fancy them to beat them. I also cannot see Irish turning them over at the end.

Here's my go

As it stands:
==============================
  Team        P  W  D L BP PTS
1 Harlequins  16 13 0 3 4  56
2 Saracens    16 11 1 4 4  50
3 Northampton 16 10 0 6 6  46
4 Leicester   16 9  1 6 7  45
5 Gloucester  16 8  1 7 7  41
6 Exeter      16 8  0 8 8  40
==============================


Top 6 Remaining Fixtures (predicted points)

Newcastle v Harlequins (1/4)
Exeter v Sale (4/1)
Leicester v Gloucester (1/4)
Saracens v Northampton (4/1)

Sale v Saracens (1/4)
Gloucester v Exeter (5/0)
Harlequins v Bath (4/0)
Northampton v Wasps (5/0)
London Irish v Leicester (1/4)

Bath v Northampton (0/4)
Exeter v London Irish (4/1)
Leicester v Worcester (4/0)
Saracens v Harlequins (1/4)
Wasps v Gloucester (0/5)

Gloucester v Newcastle (5/0)
Harlequins v Wasps (5/0)
London Irish v Saracens (0/4)
Northampton v Leicester (4/1)
Worcester v Exeter (1/4)

Newcastle v Saracens (1/4)
Gloucester v Sale (4/0)
Harlequins v Leicester (4/1)
Exeter v Northampton (1/4)

Leicester v Bath (4/0)
London Irish v Gloucester (0/5)
Northampton v Worcester (4/0)
Sale v Harlequins (1/4)
Saracens v Exeter (4/0)


Predicted final table:
===============================
  Team        P  W  D L  BP PTS
1 Harlequins  22 18 0 4  6  81 
2 Saracens    22 16 1 5  5  71
3 Gloucester  22 12 1 9  10 69
4 Northampton 22 15 0 7  8  68
5 Leicester   22 12 1 9  8  60
6 Exeter      22 10 0 12 10 53
===============================



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 27/02/2012 13:44 by Sketchley.

 
Re: The Run In
Go Quins Go! (IP Logged)
27 February, 2012 13:48
I think you might have your quartered spectacles on. I can't see us winning 6/6 in the run-in.



GQG.

 
Re: The Run In
Sketchley (IP Logged)
27 February, 2012 14:01
Maybe but going through the games.

Newcastle Away - Should be a win, although they seem to be doing a bit better recently, plus we played well on Sat with JTH and Lowe back I cannot see us loosing that one.

Bath at Home - Should be a win.

Sarries Away - I'll agree calling this as a win is a little rose tinted but I cannot call it as Sarries win can I? :0) It was tight at BG4 and my logic is that the team will be itching to prove a point so I'm calling a win unless we rotate team ready for Toulon that is? Probably the hardest call of the 6 games.

Wasps at Home - Nothing but a win would do here against a Wasps team who have been poor all season.

Leicester at Home - Almost as difficult to call as Sarries away but I think we will edge it. That being said the Amlin Semi should we beat Toulon is the next week so we may rotate.....

Sale away. Should be a win but if we already have home semi in bag for the following week we may rotate again.

 
Re: The Run In
Rocker (IP Logged)
27 February, 2012 14:04
Newcastle vs Quions - win
Quins vs Bath - Win
Sarries vs Quins - losing bonus.
Quins vs Wasps - Win
Quins vs Tiggers - win (or losing bonus)
Sale Vs Quins - Win

That should be our aim. For us not to beat Newcastle, Bath, Wasps and Sale would be a travesty.

Tiggers at home only because we're at home and they are not the normally invincible team this season.

Sarries, I'd like us to win but I don't think so somehow.

 
Re: The Run In
Go Quins Go! (IP Logged)
27 February, 2012 15:06
If we can win 4/6, which looks fair, then Sarries will probably need to win all of their six to beat us to 1st place.

However, the only have two games in their run-in that they are likely to be worried about are Quins and Saints...



GQG.

 
Re: The Run In
Brown Bottle (IP Logged)
27 February, 2012 15:40
Quote:
If we can win 4/6, which looks fair, then Sarries will probably need to win all of their six to beat us to 1st place.

That's true but I don't think Sarries are bothered about coming above us - they just want a home semi.



BB

 
Re: The Run In
Duncan Keene (IP Logged)
27 February, 2012 16:52
Lots of you guys writing the Tigers off!

We shall see...

 
Re: The Run In
Go Quins Go! (IP Logged)
27 February, 2012 17:05
I'm not...



GQG.

 
Re: The Run In
forthewin (IP Logged)
27 February, 2012 17:11
Not that many people are...

 
Re: The Run In
Samquin (IP Logged)
27 February, 2012 17:22
This weekend is a possible banana skin which I would like to get past before I worry about the next 5 matches.

 
Re: The Run In
Brown Bottle (IP Logged)
27 February, 2012 19:35
Quote:
Samquin
This weekend is a possible banana skin which I would like to get past before I worry about the next 5 matches.

Nah...5 pointer! smiling smiley



BB

 
Re: The Run In
27 February, 2012 20:54
As far as the run in is concerned I see that we are 3 points of Conor's pre-season road map, so all's well and looking good. Roll on Friday !

[www.rugbynetwork.net]

 
Re: The Run In
Rugby101 (IP Logged)
27 February, 2012 22:33
Friday is a must win game for Falcons to stay up - they'll want it more than we do. We won't win. We'll probably pick up an LBP though.

 
Re: The Run In
Samquin (IP Logged)
27 February, 2012 22:39
Maybe Clegg should be given a run out against his old club this Friday evening. It might upset their game plan

 
Re: The Run In
Rocker (IP Logged)
27 February, 2012 22:48
Nick,.whilst I'm sure that budgies will want to win on Friday looking at the.form book, you'd have to admit there.are easier chances of points for them. I suspect that COS will have firmly drilled.into our lot that it is a must win for us too.

 
Re: The Run In
Rugby101 (IP Logged)
27 February, 2012 23:02
Normally I'm a glass half full type but we have no lineout without Robson and JJ is penalty magnet in the scrum. Add that to our feeble defence recently (Monye standing idle whilst Glos scored their first try or the massive man mountain full back that is Tom Homer running over Gray to give two rather pathetic recent examples) and our habit of gifting the opposition 10 points and I can't think of anything other than a rather embarrassing loss.

I do hope that my opinion is wrong though!!

 
Re: The Run In
Quin Like Flint (IP Logged)
27 February, 2012 23:09
Try running through a list of what Newcastle are@#$%&at. Might make you feel better.

 
Re: The Run In
Rugby101 (IP Logged)
27 February, 2012 23:20
They're pretty good at beating us at KP for a start and they know how to win a relegation dog fight. They will play this game like its the Premiership final.

And besides, I've made some very valid points about our current weak spots. You can't honestly tell me that you're confident in our lineout without Robson?

 
Re: The Run In
Quin Like Flint (IP Logged)
28 February, 2012 08:43
They may well give us a tough game. Your points are valid, but I can't see how it adds up to a stark "we will lose" though. Quins are not in top gear, but they are still a damn good team, and it is a game against the bottom club, so to write us off seems a little perverse.

 
Re: The Run In
Rugby101 (IP Logged)
28 February, 2012 08:52
Its doesn't add up to an automatic 'we will win though?'

Personally, I hope I am miles off in my thoughts for Friday's game so please feel free to say 'I told you so!!' after the game - I'll definitely deserve it!!

 
Re: The Run In
Quinten Poulsen (IP Logged)
28 February, 2012 08:56
I largely agree with Nick. Plus our recent record is average - 3 wins from 6 with only 1 LBP. Newcastle are exactly the sort of team we have struggled against this season. Hard to call.

 
Re: The Run In
Quin Like Flint (IP Logged)
28 February, 2012 09:00
I think we will win, yes. I don't subscribe to the whole "banana skin" thing. Sometimes the thought of a "rather embarrassing loss" as you put it, somehow makes it seem more likely. It's not though. It's less likely.

 
Re: The Run In
Rocker (IP Logged)
28 February, 2012 09:00
JJ's penalty count depends on the ref, and whether the oppo lose head can con him. As for.line.out issues, it is a bit of a problem, but we still have Easter and perhaps Browne this week?
I think you are being unduly pessimistic. They have a pretty good.record against us at KP, but that is from past seasons, this season we are better and they aren't!

 
Re: The Run In
Black Bear (IP Logged)
28 February, 2012 09:22
If we cut out the silly mistakes and don't give Gopperth any pens for him to kick - then we can grind out a win.

 
Re: The Run In
T-Bone (IP Logged)
28 February, 2012 13:20
I suspect we'll have mike back for the trip up north, though actually if he isn't then ross has proved himself to be a very good replacement. If mike is back I'd like to see ross take ugo's place, though ugo did have a better game last week.

I'm confident we'll get the job done on friday, but then I have been the last few seasons, so we'll see. but tigers saw them off fairly comfortably, albeit at home.

I think this game against falcons really is key. If we lose it then it puts increased pressure on the other games, but if we can win and maintain our gap at the top then we can still lose to sarries and keep matters in our own hands.

does anyone know how long robson's out for? I know he's just had an injection in his hip but no idea what that means in terms of his absence.

 
Re: The Run In
Banstead Quin (IP Logged)
28 February, 2012 13:56
Predicted final table:
===============================
Team P W D L BP PTS
1 Harlequins 22 18 0 4 6 78
2 Saracens 22 16 1 5 5 71
3 Northampton 22 15 0 7 8 66
4 Gloucester 22 12 1 9 10 60
5 Leicester 22 12 1 9 8 58

Quin Like Flint - Not sure I'd want to write off Leicester either, I think they will still finish 4th.

If Glos do do it, I'm not sure that that will be a gimmee, just because it's at home. You could see how fired up they were to beat us on Saturday and this will be no different. Anyone remember London Irish at home in a semi, when they were in good form?

 
Re: The Run In
Quin Like Flint (IP Logged)
28 February, 2012 14:03
Fair enough Banstead. I can tell you one thing for certain - the final table will not be exactly as I have "predicted"! (Sm13) Oh - and someone who is saying nothing now will come on and say "well I could have told you that would happen" (Sm14)

 
Re: The Run In
Arlecchino (IP Logged)
28 February, 2012 15:38
Well I'm not making any predictions, and won't be saying "well I could have told you that would happen".

I am encouraged that the most pessimistic prediction here puts us top, and 12 points ahead of third place and an away semi final.

I am also encouraged by the prospect of Gloucester at home rather than Leicester, though maybe Leicester with their internationals back may not fire so well as a team that have had a consistent squad...



Nunquam Dormio

 
Re: The Run In
Fearless Fred (IP Logged)
28 February, 2012 15:57
I'd like to see it end up with a top 4 of:

Quins
Sarries
Gloucs
Exeter

Then us to beat Exeter and Gloucs to beat Sarries in the semi, leaving Us vs Gloucs at the final.

I think we can safely say that us and Sarries are through to the play-offs come what may, and it's now a question of fighting for a Home SF. As for why I'd like the other two, I think it would be good for the game if Gloucs got through, as they seem to want to paly a similar style of game to our own, and that could make for a great spectacle, and it would be a major boost for the game if Exe were able to make it to the Play-offs in such a short time. It would also begin to break the perception that it's always the same teams contesting the final (yes I know Sarries have done that to an extent, but to have as many "unusual" post season contenders would be far better).

Now, I know this is unlikely, but I can hope! Plus that scenario would give us a chance to beat Gloucs one last time this season, meaning I get the last family bragging rights of the season! (FFred's mum is a Cherry & Whites supporter..)(Sm100)

 
Re: The Run In
Bluntiger (IP Logged)
28 February, 2012 16:13
Quote:
Banstead Quin
Predicted final table:
===============================
Team P W D L BP PTS
1 Harlequins 22 18 0 4 6 78
2 Saracens 22 16 1 5 5 71
3 Northampton 22 15 0 7 8 66
4 Gloucester 22 12 1 9 10 60
5 Leicester 22 12 1 9 8 58


I looked at the Ladbrookes site to see what the odds for winning the AP were as that is usually there or there abouts.

Saracens 13/8
Leicester 11/4
Harlequins 3/1
Northampton 4/1
Gloucester 25/1
Exeter 125/1

As a Tigers fan, I think your prediction league is wishful thinking rather than anything born from reality.

We will be in the top 4 and I still believe that we (and Saints) have a shot at top 2. I also have no fears in going to the Stoop and getting a result in a AP Semi. After all, the best predictor of the future, is the past!

 
Re: The Run In
Quin Like Flint (IP Logged)
28 February, 2012 16:23
It's not a "prediction league".

Those odds relate to winning the playoffs, not the final league table which is what this thread is about.

 
Re: The Run In
Salon Generali (IP Logged)
28 February, 2012 16:37
Glos at 25/1 looks like a good long-shot punt.
Once you are in the playoffs, it is only 2 games to win

Only I just can't bring myself to do it

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