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OiRodders
Hypothetical Scenarios
81Saint (IP Logged)
02 December, 2017 22:30
Hi, long time lurker on this site finally decided to put a post out there.

Last year I was very much in the Ďstick with Jimí camp and felt given his previous successes he should be afforded the chance to start this season to turn it round.
Unfortunately after a promising start to the season our decline has resumed and I am now also of the view that the credits of years gone by have dried up and itís time for change.

That said and as stated on other posts the next step isnít always straightforward as the good coaches are in good jobs already.

So, what do people feel are the ideal scenarios we would want/hope to pursue if Jim were to go.

For me, iíd like to see a bit more in the way of succession planning with some genuine Ďsaintsmení pencilled in for the future. For example, what will the likes of Dylan want to do down the line and what level of head coaching potential do we see in Dowse.

For what itís worth iíd now bite the bullet and dispense of Jim and Dorian and give the likes of Dowse a shot. Itís undoubtedly too early for him so iíd back that up by seeking some short to medium term consultancy coach to share the wisdom for a season or two. Wayne Smith anyone???

Anyone else care to work the Crystal Ball?

 
tedge
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
tedge (IP Logged)
02 December, 2017 23:23
I'd be sounding out Hepher (as Head Coach) and Hunter to work with Dickens and Dowson next season

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
shendy (IP Logged)
02 December, 2017 23:58
Quote:
tedge
I'd be sounding out Hepher (as Head Coach) and Hunter to work with Dickens and Dowson next season

As I say whenever anyone asks this, why on earth would they want to leave Exeter at this point in time?



There ain't no Sanity Clause

 
herbie85
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
herbie85 (IP Logged)
03 December, 2017 00:44
Quote:
shendy
Quote:
tedge
I'd be sounding out Hepher (as Head Coach) and Hunter to work with Dickens and Dowson next season

As I say whenever anyone asks this, why on earth would they want to leave Exeter at this point in time?

Depends on whether he wants to be a head coach or DOR or happy with being a cog in a very successful coaching machine

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
Robby Richmond (IP Logged)
03 December, 2017 01:03
It's been tried and failed (Along with a list of other bright young things who wanted nothing to do with us)
Lance the boil and ask again.

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
shendy (IP Logged)
03 December, 2017 01:11
At some point I expect Hepher & Hunter will want to be in charge in their own right, but I think they've got plenty of time left at Exeter first - they have, after all, won 1 trophy so far.
At this point I'd imagine Baxter would be next England coach - who out of Hepher & Hunter would get top job at Exeter, or maybe they'd take a 2-headed role?
Anyway, I really can't see either of them leaving Exeter in the short term.



There ain't no Sanity Clause

 
OiRodders
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
81Saint (IP Logged)
03 December, 2017 05:07
St in Florida, Wow, thanks for the warm welcome!! I must have missed the Ďfirst post must be 100% positive ruleí.

I genuinely didnít post this to be either positive or negative, more to promote some debate on the Ďwhat ifí scenarios, (which for the record can just as readily include sticking with Jim and West, which was my preference up to Friday).

RR, I agree that the boil needs lancing (just my opinion St in Florida) and I take what I think is your Ďletís not worry until itís happenedí point but presumably the board canít take that approach as they have to have a plan.

Seems to me timing is key and I now feel a caretaker option gives us the flexibility to wait for the right replacements rather than take whoever is free if we decide the future is not Mallinder/West.
For example, Time it right you get Ackerman and see stark improvement, time it wrongly and you go back to a previous coach and see no tangible improvement (see Tiggers).

Maybe the boards perceived inaction at our demise is them being aware of just this scenario and therefore maybe we need to cut some slack.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/12/2017 07:19 by 81Saint.

 
Lamont4Saints
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
Lamont4Saints (IP Logged)
03 December, 2017 07:58
Surely it is positive to talk about getting rid of Jim. Thatís the most positive thing the club could do.

 
Saint Ted
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
Saint Ted (IP Logged)
03 December, 2017 08:09
Saint in Florida, Iíve deleted that post as it was unwarranted and certainly not how we go about welcoming new posters

 
andysaint
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
andysaint (IP Logged)
03 December, 2017 08:41
In Dowson Dickens Diggin and Hopley we have some quite inexperienced coaches. If Jim and Dorian are no longer around, they will need to experienced coaches above them. We cannot get rid of what we have without new coaches coming in.

 
Longers
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
Longers (IP Logged)
03 December, 2017 09:03
In the hypothetical scenarios, there is one glaringly obvious omission. And to some on here, it could well be described as a heresy way beyond calling for Jim to go.

I refer to the ownership of the club.

KB has done immense good for the club. He built a business and the plan was for Leon to take it forward. Sadly, that could not happen.

Are we now simply watching one group of children playing with another child's toy? (sorry, but that's the best metaphor I could come up with.)

No-one is going to make a decision without looking over their shoulder for approval. It's a scenario played out in companies far and wide, of all complexions and contexts.

Are we actually at a point of paralysis, when the really big decisions are not taken, because of "what KB might say"?

I have felt this for some time, but have avoided putting the thought into public domain.

I may be wrong - I was once!

 
OiRodders
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
81Saint (IP Logged)
03 December, 2017 09:19
Agree Andy Saint,

So letís just say the board do what many seem to want and bring down the axe on the Mallinder era, then what? Seems to me there are 3 scenarios:

1. The board have identified 1 or more targets who are immediately available. Preferable but unlikely.

2. The board have identified 1 or more targets but none are available short term requiring an interim option or to stick with Jim and Co. until the target is free. Not ideal but makes sense.

3. The board havenít planned to remove the current coaching setup or havenít identified an option meaning stick with Jim et al or put an interim in place until the right option emerges. Seems rather risky to me and supports Longers point about the state of the leadership of the club.

If my money were going anywhere itís on 2 which for me explains the perceived inaction. Moreover if I were a betting man I know who iíd guess as replacement but it would be a guess based on a lot of hearsay only.

 
ElySaint
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
ElySaint (IP Logged)
03 December, 2017 09:44
O share your instinct 81Saint in regards to your scenario number 2. I think we may well see permanent changes, which could well be done deals but may come at end of season. One would hope, if this is the case, that any newcomer is having input on the make-up of the squad and potential recruitment. It might be me, but seems like weíve not had so many contract remewals as in previous years; could this be related. Moreover, this would explain a lack of vocalisation from the board recently. Although, Iíve heard no rumours / heresay on any replacements.

 
tedge
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
tedge (IP Logged)
03 December, 2017 09:50
Quote:
Longers
In the hypothetical scenarios, there is one glaringly obvious omission. And to some on here, it could well be described as a heresy way beyond calling for Jim to go.
I refer to the ownership of the club.

KB has done immense good for the club. He built a business and the plan was for Leon to take it forward. Sadly, that could not happen.

Are we now simply watching one group of children playing with another child's toy? (sorry, but that's the best metaphor I could come up with.)

No-one is going to make a decision without looking over their shoulder for approval. It's a scenario played out in companies far and wide, of all complexions and contexts.

Are we actually at a point of paralysis, when the really big decisions are not taken, because of "what KB might say"?

I have felt this for some time, but have avoided putting the thought into public domain.

I may be wrong - I was once!

An interesting view Longers and one I have not considered. We have had a situation for some years now where the Chairman has been a minority shareholder whilst the majority shareholder has remained on the board. I would imagine any Chairman in the seat might feel hamstrung by his lack of a financial stake in the club and his consequent inability to make any decisive alterations to the way the club is run. I am not suggesting that KB would consciously obstruct any chairman but his mere presence might well be intimidating. The solution does lie firmly in KB's hands although one can see how unappealing it might be from his standpoint.

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
Neil-H (IP Logged)
03 December, 2017 11:00
There is still the elephant in the room of money... can we afford to pay off the coaches?

Would we be happy to not get a marquee player in to cover the costs of the payment to end their contracts?.... that big prop we all want in place of George, we might not be able to afford both?

Or here is another scenario?

The rumours are true, West is going to Newcastle at end of season, rumour that West always was the loudest voice in coaching?

So if he leaves, then the dymanics changes? Maybe Dowson steps up to forwards coach, maybe this is sucsession planning.

Then Jim has rest of contract to turn it around, maybe the planning for Jimís departure already, if above comes true?

Or Ofc it could be something totally shocking!

 
HungryLikeTheWolf
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
HungryLikeTheWolf (IP Logged)
03 December, 2017 12:05
I was going to write a decent length post of ideas

But frankly I canít be bothered and lost interest until there is change.

 
incastrowetrust
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
Ayerza wannabe (IP Logged)
03 December, 2017 12:10
Quote:
81Saint

Seems to me timing is key and I now feel a caretaker option gives us the flexibility to wait for the right replacements rather than take whoever is free if we decide the future is not Mallinder/West.
For example, Time it right you get Ackerman and see stark improvement, time it wrongly and you go back to a previous coach and see no tangible improvement (see Tiggers).

Maybe the boards perceived inaction at our demise is them being aware of just this scenario and therefore maybe we need to cut some slack.

Disagree with that, think i and most Tigers fans think we have progressed on last season by quite a bit.
Now a case of tinkering with the squad.

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
Stockers (IP Logged)
03 December, 2017 12:11
I don't subscribe to the promotion from within idea. Our newer coaches are too inexperienced and imbued with the "Saints" way of playing. They have potential but what the playing group need now is fresh and radical thinking throughout the leadership group.

Oh, and a very warm welcome 81 Saint! Nice to hear a fresh voice.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/12/2017 12:13 by Stockers.

 
Cransley Saint
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
Cransley Saint (IP Logged)
03 December, 2017 12:46
Quote:
Neil-H
There is still the elephant in the room of money... can we afford to pay off the coaches?
Would we be happy to not get a marquee player in to cover the costs of the payment to end their contracts?.... that big prop we all want in place of George, we might not be able to afford both?

Or here is another scenario?

The rumours are true, West is going to Newcastle at end of season, rumour that West always was the loudest voice in coaching?

So if he leaves, then the dymanics changes? Maybe Dowson steps up to forwards coach, maybe this is sucsession planning.

Then Jim has rest of contract to turn it around, maybe the planning for Jimís departure already, if above comes true?

Or Ofc it could be something totally shocking!

West is not going to Newcastle. Fact I'm afraid for those who think it is true.

 
Whiston Saint
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
Whiston Saint (IP Logged)
03 December, 2017 12:53
We are losing huge amounts of revenue due to the state of our performance on the pitch. There must come a point where we have to make a change or the losses will increase with additional STH not renewing etc.

We cannot afford not to do something. IMO the same applies to a number of players who are pulling the team down, notably Foden, Brooks and Burrell.......oh no hold on a minute we have just given Foden a testimonial FHS...

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
Robby Richmond (IP Logged)
03 December, 2017 13:24
Yeah sorry, conflicting stories about the boil going to Newcastle.
Should tell you a great deal when your best mate does not want you.
(To be honest, they don't need him).
Whiston makes more sense here too. Another example of failed recruitment when they can't find upgraded replacements or convince them to come to FG.
Belated welcome 81saint!



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/12/2017 13:25 by Robby Richmond.

 
OiRodders
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
81Saint (IP Logged)
03 December, 2017 13:38
Thanks Stockers.

Fair enough Ayerza. Either way, I guess we can all agree Gloucester seem to have landed on their feet.

Danny Wilson has been quite a strong rumour in the Welsh media as coming this way to be forwards coach. Some colleagues of mine also Cardiff Blues supporters have told me this is definitely the rumour in the stands in Cardiff though they are all of the view that in light of him giving notice of his departure end of the season, there is no way heíd be moving for less than Head Coach. He himself is being very coy about where he is heading in interviews.

Wild speculation I know but maybe something in it and he does seem to be highly regarded in Wales at least. Question then is whether someone like him picks up the coaching and Jim stays involved upstairs.
Either way, my view is Dorian will have to make way!!

 
Dallysaint
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
Dallysaint (IP Logged)
03 December, 2017 14:34
Hi everyone, I'm also like 81saint being a long time lurker.
I read so many deflated fans comments and i too feel the same as many of you.
I agree with whiston saint in that the performances on the feild will undoubtedly affect the revenue of the club. So what's the best option...oh yes allow our commercial director Brian facer to "leave" when he has been around in whats probably been our most successful period in the clubs history.
Sorry if i also fall fowl of the positive 1st post rule.

 
ElySaint
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
ElySaint (IP Logged)
03 December, 2017 14:40
Presumably there is a critical tipping point at which the loss of revenue from tickets and sundry sales at FG along with Euro Champs Cup money is a larger sum than than that which will be needed to end any contracts.

Simply, can we afford NOT to end contracts?

 
Deesaint
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
Deesaint (IP Logged)
03 December, 2017 15:12
I am not so sure there will be an immediate effect on revenue
The only shortfall will be casual purchasing of seats
Season tickets have been brought for this year
Corporate boxes have been paid for the year
Corporate hospitality never seems to be effected
Money from RFU still comes in
Money from sky and BT will be paid
Competition money European Cup / Anglo Welsh wonít be effected
I donít think there is any financial pressure today

We have a late end of season surge - finish fifth or sixth - I donít think there will be that many STH not renewing

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
Robby Richmond (IP Logged)
03 December, 2017 15:21
Still paying off that stand DeeSaint...

 
Whiston Saint
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
Whiston Saint (IP Logged)
03 December, 2017 15:26
The frustration for me is that we have some very good players who are either lacking motivation or trying too hard. There is definitely a toxic atmosphere being generated by some senior players and Dorian.

My concern is that some of our recent signings like Horne, Reinach and Francis are probably wondering why they came to the club. If things continue as they are they may well try to escape.

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
Robby Richmond (IP Logged)
03 December, 2017 15:35
In full agreement again whitson

 
Longers
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
Longers (IP Logged)
03 December, 2017 15:50
Quote:
Whiston Saint
The frustration for me is that we have some very good players who are either lacking motivation or trying too hard. There is definitely a toxic atmosphere being generated by some senior players and Dorian.
My concern is that some of our recent signings like Horne, Reinach and Francis are probably wondering why they came to the club. If things continue as they are they may well try to escape.

Which all comes down to Jim having to do his bl**dy job.

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
Saint Dom (IP Logged)
03 December, 2017 16:39
ďToxic atmosphereĒ, Whiston?

Evidence?

...

However, following Quinsí defeat of the other London club, we are now 10th in the League.

Yet, I donít think itís JM who should go, but the players who canít follow the gameplan - or even those payers who canít change the gameplan during the game, when it needs to be changed.

Dylan is second to none, but he cannot do everything on his own. We need better leadership on the pitch...



http://v4admin.sportnetwork.net/upload/99/99_0_1202835632.jpg
*I could agree with you - but then we'd both be wrong...*

 
ch saint
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
ch saint (IP Logged)
03 December, 2017 16:47
It comes down to new high quality coaches, not from within. If Jim stayed as DOR he would have to be more of an advisor to the board than direct coach, like Glouc.
Re money the shareholders have to stump up or watch the value of the company probably fall, not that it matters particularly. The previous business model of funding from profits in the business (approx £10m cumulative at end of last financial year), is now very difficult if not impossible, unless Mark D can create new revenue streams. The cap has stretched all clubs finances and eventually it has reached us. In years prior to last year the supporters and sponsors/tv funded the club, now they can't. Add to this the dire rugby being played for three seasons which is actually likely to reduce the season ticket take up further exacerbated by a ground capacity greater than demand. In short more equity needed or loans.
On the other hand if we won three games in a row we would all see things differently I believe.
The morale is never never ever give a 5 year contract, just never works in my experience.

 
Brackleysaint
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
Brackleysaint (IP Logged)
03 December, 2017 16:57
Quote:
Robby Richmond
Still paying off that stand DeeSaint...

Controversially one has to ask the question was it worth building the stand just to avoid having to play the odd game at Stadium MK.

 
Deesaint
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
Deesaint (IP Logged)
03 December, 2017 17:13
Quote:
Robby Richmond
Still paying off that stand DeeSaint...

But thatís just debt for improvements
Probably in the shape of a commercial loan or mortgage
Any debt payments can be restructured or even a holiday taken
I donít think this year will be a problem financially
But if next year is same old same old
Could see some revenues dropping dramatically

 
SaintsAsh
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
SaintsAsh (IP Logged)
03 December, 2017 18:24
I would be happy for Jim to stay and get a new head coach to give us a direction for play. Jim has a good demeanour which I think helps with recruitment and he is good with the media which takes that burden from the head coach.

 
Saintalex
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
Saintalex (IP Logged)
03 December, 2017 18:26
How many time have we had a capacity filled ground since it was built??? The only game that would have to be moved before it was built is a home European Quarter Final, which we havenít had one of them for years....

 
MarchingIn
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
MarchingIn (IP Logged)
03 December, 2017 18:31
Last time Saints sacked a DoR type figure it was Alan Solomons - stumbled on for a season or so with Poutney & Grayson before relegation lead to the current regime.

First thing to point out here is that Solomons isn't a bad coach. The next side he coached went unbeaten for an entire season. When he coached Edinburgh they made a European final and beat Glasgow for the first time in years.

Sometimes it just doesn't work out, or stops working out. Sat at 10th in the table having won just an Anglo-Welsh game since September, it's clear now is one of those times at Saints.

Look over the border to the dear Tigers. They sacked Bob Dwyer after a dip in form in the 90s and appointed Dean Richards. Then after he won 4 titles, and 2 Heineken Cups back to back, he was sacked the following year on one run of bad games, in a world cup year with the best players out! Pat Howard got the boot the year he returned them to the title, and then our most favourite Tiger of all "Richard the cock" was removed after a couple of titles for failing to get to the final 2 years in a row, then failing to reach the knock out stages in Europe, with Mauger out too months later, despite dragging them back to a place where one score would have put them in the final, whilst we missed 6th.

The primary difference between "us and them" appears to be a tolerance for mediocrity here which they don't share. They have never finished outside the top 6. Never. Malinder would have been fired around the time Cockeril was if this club had Tigers board. Their squad is not better than ours. They have played some@#$%&rugby too, yet they get the results by hook or by crook.

I was one of the "give Jim time" club. I have maintained since early 2017 that we must enter 2018 in the top 6 and in form to be challenging for top 4 as a minimum to secure his future. With the gutsy wins to make it into the champions cup and the decent form displayed early this year, I thought that view was validated.

I was wrong. Those who were calling for his departure a year ago were right. Anybody not calling for it now must be mad. 10th place with 1 win from the last 9 games and without a Premiership win since September. That may well extend so that we lost every Prem game for 3 months if the Chiefs beat us, as they probably will.

If we had the money to pay North to stay, then we can find the money to pay Malinder and West to go, one way or the other.



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 03/12/2017 18:36 by MarchingIn.

 
Eif Jones
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
Eif Jones (IP Logged)
04 December, 2017 00:13
Some of us Marchingln were calling for his departure not 1 but 2 seasons ago, in my view, what has been happening lately has been on the cards all the while. As a Wales fan, I have similar issues there, Gatland needed to freshen his supporting team especially with the WRU giving him a Lions sabbatical season. Maybe it was even time for Gatland himself to move on, the next 6N will be the determinant.

Rob, one of my shareholding friends was pretty insistent that the mortgages on the new stands was with the Barwell organisation. Is that true?

 
HungryLikeTheWolf
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
HungryLikeTheWolf (IP Logged)
04 December, 2017 00:21
Quote:
MarchingIn
Last time Saints sacked a DoR type figure it was Alan Solomons - stumbled on for a season or so with Poutney & Grayson before relegation lead to the current regime.
First thing to point out here is that Solomons isn't a bad coach. The next side he coached went unbeaten for an entire season. When he coached Edinburgh they made a European final and beat Glasgow for the first time in years.

Sometimes it just doesn't work out, or stops working out. Sat at 10th in the table having won just an Anglo-Welsh game since September, it's clear now is one of those times at Saints.

Look over the border to the dear Tigers. They sacked Bob Dwyer after a dip in form in the 90s and appointed Dean Richards. Then after he won 4 titles, and 2 Heineken Cups back to back, he was sacked the following year on one run of bad games, in a world cup year with the best players out! Pat Howard got the boot the year he returned them to the title, and then our most favourite Tiger of all "Richard the cock" was removed after a couple of titles for failing to get to the final 2 years in a row, then failing to reach the knock out stages in Europe, with Mauger out too months later, despite dragging them back to a place where one score would have put them in the final, whilst we missed 6th.

The primary difference between "us and them" appears to be a tolerance for mediocrity here which they don't share. They have never finished outside the top 6. Never. Malinder would have been fired around the time Cockeril was if this club had Tigers board. Their squad is not better than ours. They have played some@#$%&rugby too, yet they get the results by hook or by crook.

I was one of the "give Jim time" club. I have maintained since early 2017 that we must enter 2018 in the top 6 and in form to be challenging for top 4 as a minimum to secure his future. With the gutsy wins to make it into the champions cup and the decent form displayed early this year, I thought that view was validated.

I was wrong. Those who were calling for his departure a year ago were right. Anybody not calling for it now must be mad. 10th place with 1 win from the last 9 games and without a Premiership win since September. That may well extend so that we lost every Prem game for 3 months if the Chiefs beat us, as they probably will.

If we had the money to pay North to stay, then we can find the money to pay Malinder and West to go, one way or the other.



Great post which should have a thread of its own.

 
rugbymel
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
rugbymel (IP Logged)
04 December, 2017 05:51
Good post MarchingIn. The one phrase that sticks out is ďtolerance for mediocrityĒ.

 
Dallysaint
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
Dallysaint (IP Logged)
04 December, 2017 06:37
Well said marchingin.

 
MarchingIn
Re: Hypothetical Scenarios
MarchingIn (IP Logged)
04 December, 2017 08:54
Quote:
Eif Jones
Some of us Marchingln were calling for his departure not 1 but 2 seasons ago

2 years ago it was salvageable.

If he'd made the tough decisions such as bringing in new coaches & sending West to coach the under-18s or something, plus dropping the undroppables, then maybe things would be different.

For me, the writing was on the wall for West when Victor Matfield's comments about the club and a few things Hartley said as well came out in the summer of 2015. Malinder's loyalty to West has taken them both down and the team with it.


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