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Re: Odds up
Posted by: tbr
Date: 12/07/2018 10:11
Remember... bookies produce a book via risk assessment or damage limitation in line with how much money they could lose if a particular sporting result should happen.
This is usually (but not always) in line with actually likelihood of that result actually happening (as your average punter isn't completely daft) but the book isn't at all soley based on the likelihood of that event happening. That isn't how bookmakers work.

An example.
Tony McCoy was often artificially VERY short priced favourite in the races he rode in.
Not primarily because he was far more likely to win than other jockeys.
But because he was probably a bit more likely to win but the bookies shortened his odds artificially to limit potential damage if he did win... as being the punters and or housewives favourite... the bookies would expect a bigger total stake on him than perhaps other jockeys and therefore face a bigger payout/loss.

Bookmakers will vary a bit (although the wuss/Bris difference above is a little puzzling) but I would suggest that many bookies MIGHT put forward the notion (if pushed) that there might be more potential for more Bris money on a Premership win than Wuss money.
So I'd expect our odds to be perhaps shortened slightly. Compared to sayyyy Wuss.
This doesn't necessarily mean bookies think a Bris Premiership win is more likely than a Wuss Premiership win ... but more that if Bris DO win... any damage to the bookies' coffers is mitigated somewhat.

All a bit far fetched though really... and not a huge influence on this particular book at this particular time... as the ACTUAL likelihood of either Wuss or Bris winning the Premiership is at best... very unlikely indeed.


I hope all this makes sense.

I just wanted to point out that the difference in price on Bris or Wuss to win the Premiership at any specific bookies doesn't reflect the bookies view on the sole difference in likelihood of either of those teams actually winning.

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