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Re: Is it really that bad!?
Posted by: talkshowhost86
Date: 30/10/2017 12:35
Well even under your own analysis we are missing the target and missing it by 1.07 points per game is actually a fair bit.

But I think that statistical analysis misses a few key points on both sides of the debate.

1. We've had a comparatively easy run of fixtures so far. Our next four games are very tricky taking us up to the half way point, so I think that points per game ratio will look very dodgy come Christmas.

2. We've lost two out of two in the Champions Cup, which surely we were at least targeting to compete in effectively, including one real horror show of a performance at Wasps.

3. As you mention yourself, it doesn't take into account our injuries, which have made everything quite a bit harder for the players and for JK and co.

4. A purely statistical analysis always runs the risk of ignoring what has actually happened on the pitch. The Warriors game, for example, reads as a 5 point win, but that masks a multitude of problems that were exposed by a pretty poor opposition.

5. I'm not really sure how much we are truly aiming for top 4. Without knowing what targets the board have set JK, it's perhaps unfair to measure him against our own targets anyway. Although that is only natural from all sports fans.

In general I think your overall conclusion that the first third of the season has gone okay is about right. It's been okay.

But I think by the time we get to the half-way point of the season, based on what we've seen so far, we'll be below 'okay'.

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