Rob Murphy @ Knockon.ie

It is now clear that a win of any kind over Madrid on Saturday will secure Connacht the much coveted top seeding in the April quarter finals after London Wasps were beaten by Racing Club Paris on Thursday night 19-17. They do not require a bonus point. 

The top seeding means that the westerners will avoid the three Heineken Cup sides that drop down into the competition and instead be drawn against one of the five pool winners with the lowest points tally. However that might yet mean that two time Heineken Cup Champions London Wasps could be visiting Galway in the Spring.

For now, Toulon fill that eight ranked position but they hold a slender one point lead over Saracens in their group and will be overtaken on the head to head if - Sarasens secure a bonus point win in Rovigo and they fail to get a bonus point win against Castres - that would leave Saracens as likely opponents then, but there is more.

Should Toulon get that bonus point win, they will now overtake Wasps who will then become the most likely opposition.

All eyes will then turn to pool one where Leeds face Bourgoin in the pool decider. Both sides have 19 points the winner will join wasps on 23 (if no bonus is secured). Leeds would overtake Wasps if they win and score three tries but a win with two or less tries will leave them facing Connacht (perhaps the most favourable option). Bourgoin will not ovetake wasps without a bonus point win so a four pointer at the weekend will leave them on Connacht's radar of Toulon do the business against Castres.

In some sort of a nutshell

So, in short. Connacht must first avoid doing a Catania (circa 2006) and get the job done on Saturday in Madrid by securing a straight forward victory.

They will then be in line to face any of the following. (we have listed the sides in order of the most likely opponents at this stage). 1. Saracens, 2. Wasps, 3. Leeds, 4. Toulon, 5. Bourgoin.

It really could be any of those five sides and we may not know our fate until after the Leeds v Bourgoin tie on Sunday. We'll keep you posted throughout the weekend.

Weekend Challenge Cup Fixtures

Friday, 22 January 2010

Montauban v Albi, P5, 18:30
Montpellier v Worcester, P2, 18:30
Newcastle v Petrarca, P5, 20:00

Saturday, 23 January 2010

Olympus Madrid v Connacht, P2, 15:00
Overmach Parma v Bucuresti, P1, 13:30
Rovigo v Saracens, P3, 14:00
Rugby Roma v Bayonne, P4, 13:30
Toulon v Castres, P3, 19:45

Sunday, 24 January 2010

Leeds Carnegie v Bourgoin, P1, 15:00

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