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The run in...


AP

By Moorsman
March 11 2012

Just a little pot boiler whilst the Chiefs players take a well earned rest.

The Run In

With the Chiefs having no further interest in the LV= Cup and the players recharge their batteries I thought I'd keep the site ticking over with a look at our run in.

Before I get started it's still a little sureal sitting here doing this when 2 seasons ago we had started the Championship play-offs with defeat at Nottingham!  Things are shaping up nicely for Bristol who started their campaign with an away thrashing of Donny by 65 to 3.

So how are we looking?  Well pretty good so far with 9 wins and 8 losses giving us 45 points and 5th place.  I'm going to stick my neck out and predict (guess) the outcome of the Chiefs remaining 5 AP fixtures.

  1. Away to Glaws on March 24th - Last season it was 1 game apiece and I think it could be the same this.  Glaws won at Sandy Park and Kingsholme isn't quite the fortress it used to be so it's a close win for the Chiefs with a LBP for Glaws = 4 points
  2. Home to London Irish on March 31st - Chiefs have yet ro beat Irish in the Prem and I think it's about time we put that right so another close game but this time Chiefs deny Irish the LBP = 4 points
  3. Away to Warriors on April 14th - the last meeting at Sandy Park was a really nervous affair with both sides cancelling each other out.  This time I think the Chiefs will be keen to quiiten the home supporters with a performance similar to that in the home game v Sale.  If the Chiefs can do that we'll have too much for the Warriors to cope with.  They have a good defensive record at home and they'll need this to limit Chiefs to 4 points with no return for the home side.
  4. Home to Saints on April 22nd.  This comes after a slight interlude for the Amlin Cup quater final v Stade in Paris (still can't believe we're still in a European competition!).  Saints totally smashed us at their place but the Chiefs have moved on in leaps and bounds since then.  I don't think we'll see the demolition there was at Sandy Park last season, although that would be grreat.  I can see another Chiefs victory netting a further 4 points with Saints taking an LBP home.
  5. Aaway to Sarries on May 5th is our final AP game (unless we make the top 4).  This won't be an easy task unless Sarries rest players for the play-offs (very unlikely I know).  Unfortunately I can't see us winning this one (but I'm willing to be surprised) but I can see us picking up a LBP = 1 point.

That adds up to a very healthy 17 points, which added to our existing 45 gives a season total of 62.  I know this may be seen by some as wildly optimistic but the Chiefs have ambition and I have faith in their ability to deliver.

Come On You Chiefs!!!

 

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thechiefstribe.com
The run in...
thechiefstribe.com (IP Logged)
11/03/2012 22:59
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MESSAGES->author
Re: The run in...
clalan (IP Logged)
12/03/2012 07:29
Wow, that definitely a glass overflowing prediction, I agree but think we will get the Losing BP at Glaws.
Like you I love this club and am proud of what the boys have done in such a short period.

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: The run in...
Kernowbabs (IP Logged)
12/03/2012 08:29
Cup overflowing may be, but we have faith in the boys and believe we are capable of beating any side. Let's hope things go well for us in the remaining games. As you say Clalan we are so proud of what they have achieved so far. Whatever, we will be supporting them all the way. CHIEFS! CHIEFS! CHIEFS!

 
ExTeddChief
Re: The run in...
ExTeddChief (IP Logged)
12/03/2012 10:42
I think we'll have our work cut out getting anything out of Gloucester and the Northampton and Irish games are filed under "anything can happen". I'm starting to dare to look forward to Heineken Cup rugby next season though, fingers crossed.

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: The run in...
Moorsman (IP Logged)
12/03/2012 17:53
This is what Whaley Shark thinks will happen:

Glaws v Chiefs 4-1
Chiefs v Irish 4-0
Warriors v Chiefs 4-1
Chiefs v Saints 1-4
Sarries v Chiefs 5-0

That's just 7 points from 5 games! but he has only gone for 8 points for Sharks over the same period. He does think we'll end up at 6th with 52 points.

What are your predicted points match by match?

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: The run in...
fatheralice (IP Logged)
12/03/2012 18:23
13 points for me, with wins against Irish Worc and one of Glaws or Saints. LBPs elsewhere. The final game vs Sarries could easily be another win, if Sarries are safe for a top 2 finish, and so rest players. The last game of the season often throws up some surprises.

Glaws v Ex 4-1
Ex v Irish 4-1
Worc v Chiefs 1-4
Chiefs v Saints 4-1
Sarries v Chiefs 4-1

Of the challengers for top 6, Glaws look the biggest threat to the top 4 teams. I think we will do enough to finish above Sale and Irish, and Bath may not have the fight left to stage a late surge, after their LV cup lose, so expect a 6th placed spot for us at worst.

Win against Glaws, and top 4 is still alive, but lose and I think we are looking at top 6 at best. It really is a pivotal game.

EDIT - can't count! That makes 14 points!(Sm154)

Still think 12-14 points is a good target for this last batch of games/



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2012:03:12:21:04:59 by fatheralice.

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: The run in...
DancesWithScrumpy (IP Logged)
12/03/2012 19:09
Glaws are a tough nut to crack at Kingsholm but I think our defence will keep us in touching distance and we'll get a lbp.

Irish are at 6's and 7's at the mo, we are strong at home so 4pts for us.

Worcester are struggling to score tries, we have a tight defence so I think this will be close and probably a kicking duel, which we'll win - 4pts more to us.

Saints at home, hmmmm on their day they are a formidable team - this is a tough ask, our 16th man should keep us in there for a lbp.

Sarries away - potentially playing for the honour of finishing 1st, so this could be REALLY hard, especially a week after playing saints. Like worcester they don't rack up big scores but have a very tight defence. close game again, and another lbp.

That's 11 more points from our last 5 games. hopefully its enough for a heineken cup spot!

 
50pointer
Re: The run in...
50pointer (IP Logged)
12/03/2012 20:36
If we can start against Gloss like we did against Sale and not like we did at Kingsholm last season we could be in with a real chance but I don't like trying to predict games cos I'm no good at it!

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: The run in...
Moorsman (IP Logged)
13/03/2012 10:28
come on guys let's have your predictions (Sm106)

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: The run in...
Toomanychiefs (IP Logged)
13/03/2012 10:54
Glaws v Exe 4:1

Exe v Irish 4:1

Wuz v Exe 1:4

Exe v Saints 1:4

Sarries v Exe 5:0

10pts

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: The run in...
Dawlish chief (IP Logged)
13/03/2012 11:18
Ever the optomist I think GLaws are strong at home at present but we got a score to settle and I'd not be surprised if we get 4 there, however my practical head says 1.

I think we'll break the monkey's back against Irish and take 4

Wus could be a banana , but I'm going for 4 again.

Do you know now my glass is overflowing , I think we could be fighting Saints for a playoff place against the odds again, so 4

Sarries, well heart says 1 but I fear the worst here 0

 
tulls
Re: The run in...
tulls (IP Logged)
13/03/2012 11:41
Glaws v Exe 4:1

Exe v Irish 5:0

Wuz v Exe 2:2

Exe v Saints 1:4

Sarries v Exe 4:0

9 pts



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2012:03:13:11:42:13 by tulls.

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: The run in...
PhilW2010 (IP Logged)
13/03/2012 12:07
Away to Gloucester - Loosing bonus point!
And it is cruicial to get a lbp & stop them from getting 5 points to keep them below us.

At home to Irish - 5 point win.
I have a feeling we could come good again for this one.

Away to Worcester - 2 points from a draw.

At home to Saints - 4 points from a win.
We beat them at home last year ?

Away to Saracens - 0
I honestly think we will struggle to get anything from this game.

So, 12 points from 5 games...that will be a fantastic performance by anyones standards.

Be sure to treat every day on this earth as if it were your last...one day you will be right. (Jethro)

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: The run in...
black_otter (IP Logged)
13/03/2012 12:10
Glaws v Exe 4-1
Exe v Irish 4-1
Worc v Exe 1-4
Exe v Saints 2-2
Sarries v Exe 4-1

Kingsholm is still a very tough place to go and get a result. An LBP would be a good result against Glaw.

Irish have had such an indifferent season and there is talk among their fans of dressing room issues between coach and some players.

Wuss are strong defensively, but a Sale-like performance from us should blow them away even away from home.

Saints could go either way for me, so am predicting a draw.

Sarries, even with injuries (notably Burger and Brown), I expect to be just too strong.

All-in-all, that's 12 table points

thumbs down

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: The run in...
rorky (IP Logged)
13/03/2012 13:15
Glaws v Exe 0-5
Exe v Irish 5-0
Worc v Exe 0-5
Exe v Saints 5-0
Sarries v Exe 0-5

Ow's about eeeee, that looks about rigt.

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: The run in...
Dawlish chief (IP Logged)
13/03/2012 13:34
Quote:
rorky
Glaws v Exe 0-5
Exe v Irish 5-0
Worc v Exe 0-5
Exe v Saints 5-0
Sarries v Exe 0-5

Ow's about eeeee, that looks about right.

You must have a 5 litre glass too get all that Guiness in!

 
50pointer
Re: The run in...
50pointer (IP Logged)
13/03/2012 19:25
Well here goes,
Gloss v Exe 4-1
Exe v LI 4-0
Wuss v Exe 1-4
Exe v Saints 4-1
Sarries v Exe 4-1
So 14 points which would mean we finish on 59pts and I think we will end up in 5th place, this prediction stuff is easy.

 
Chief RedWine
Re: The run in...
Chief Redwine (IP Logged)
13/03/2012 20:22
Glaws v Exe 0-5
Exe v LI 5-0
Wuss v Exe 0-5
Exe v Saints 5-0
Sarries v Exe 1-4

Mind you - I am known as a pessimist so I could be wrong about the Sarries result.

 
StewardSaffin
Re: The run in...
Little MissChief (IP Logged)
13/03/2012 21:50
Glaws v Chiefs 4-1
Chiefs v Irish 4-1
Wuzz v Chiefs 1-4
Chiefs v Saints 4-1
Sarries v Chiefs 4-0

So 11 more points for Chiefs is my prediction

 
loadofeathers
Re: The run in...
loadofeathers (IP Logged)
13/03/2012 23:27
Glaws v Chiefs 4-1
Chiefs v Irish 4-0
Wuzz v Chiefs 1-4
Chiefs v Saints 4-0
Sarries v Chiefs 5-0

13 for me.(Little M C Ithink yours is 13 also)

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: The run in...
14/03/2012 19:09
Glaws v Exe 1:4
Exe v Irish 4:0
Wuz v Exe 1:4
Exe v Saints 4:1
Sarries v Exe 4:1

Glass very full but see us sneaking a win at glaws and saints at home
oh and exe to beat stade



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2012:03:15:18:15:25 by Shouts loudly in rain.

 
StewardSaffin
Re: The run in...
Little MissChief (IP Logged)
14/03/2012 23:19
Quote:
loadofeathers

13 for me.(Little M C Ithink yours is 13 also)
You are absolutely correct my predictions do add up to 13 and I work with numbers in my day job too! Doesn't bode well!

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: The run in...
Moorsman (IP Logged)
25/03/2012 19:38
I may live to regret this but I told you so (Sm100) One down 4 to go (Sm60)

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: The run in...
rorky (IP Logged)
25/03/2012 19:51
Quote:
Shouts loudly in rain
Glaws v Exe 1:4
Exe v Irish 4:0
Wuz v Exe 1:4
Exe v Saints 4:1
Sarries v Exe 4:1

Glass very full but see us sneaking a win at glaws and saints at home
oh and exe to beat stade

Lend us your crystal ball shouts loudly, is this a good time to suggest a lottery syndicate.

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: The run in...
Hohookee Chief (IP Logged)
25/03/2012 19:59
And From now in

Exe v Irish 5:0
Wuz v Exe 0:5
Exe v Saints 4:1
Sarries v Exe 4:1

Then to beat quins 15-23 in the semi, and beat Sarries 9-52 in the final.

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: The run in...
black_otter (IP Logged)
25/03/2012 20:01
Quote:
Moorsman
I may live to regret this but I told you so (Sm100) One down 4 to go (Sm60)
Think you are very much entitled to an 'I told you so' - the rest of us doubters should hang our heads in shame!

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: The run in...
rorky (IP Logged)
25/03/2012 21:13
Is anyone else getting vexed with this seasons fabulous results and the Chiefs league position.

I keep staring at the Aviva Prem website adding up who is going to win what points. Looking at who between Chiefs, Bath, Glaws, Saints, Sharks and Le Irish will grab 4th, 5th and 6th place. Also if Bath start picking up they could drag Tigers into it as well, to think would have been happy with 8th or an improved 7th at the start of the season.

 
Exeforever
Re: The run in...
Exeforever (IP Logged)
25/03/2012 21:56
I believe that we are now safe in the top 6, Bath have difficult games against both Northampton and Leicester and Sale appear to be in disarray. Our fate is in our own hands so far as putting Irish out of contention if we beat them next week.

Whether we have a chance of top 4 depends on us not only picking up 4 points against Irish but then winning at Worcester, as Northampton are likely to get 5 points against Worcester at home in the last game, whereas we are unlikely to pick up more than 1 point at Sarries. Additionally we have to beat Northampton at home of course, so we need to pick up the 3 points that we are behind Northampton, hopefully from beating Irish whilst Northampton lose at Bath and then equalling whatever Northampton do in their home game against Leicester in our game at Worcester. Unfortunately both of those games are happening simultaneously.

In short we need 3 wins and a losing bp to probably finish 4th but have a 9 point cushion over Sale to ensure HC rugby next year. Either of our defeats by Bath (both games we should have won) may be the difference between finishing in the play-offs and finishing 5th.

Personally I think we'll finish 5th but I remain unconvinced that we have the strength in depth to treat the league and the HC with equal commitment next year. We have to survive in the league so may have to treat the HC as more of a "side-show" next year and ensure that by qualifying for it again in the following season we attract the necessary additional players to the club or conversely that we are another year down the road to seeing the academy players starting to come through into the firsts.

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: The run in...
fatheralice (IP Logged)
25/03/2012 22:36
If we can win our next two games, I can see us very close to Saints ahead of our home match vs them in round 21. They have a couple of tough games ahead, so may well drop some points.

In that situation, for our last home game of the season, I expect a massive performance, so a win is certainly not impossible.

Sarries may be in a position to rest players for the last round, if a home semi is secured, so that could help our cause.

Lots of ifs and buts, but winning against Irish is crucial, backed up by an away win at Worc, to give us the opportunity.

Personally, I think our lack of 5 pt'ers is going to be the difference, as Saints and Tigers seem able to score 4 trys per match at will, and I think these extra points picked up will just see them home.

Probably one more win would secure a top 6 spot, with two giving 5th place.

Can't wait for Saturday now!

 
ChiefBottleWasher
Re: The run in...
ChiefBottleWasher (IP Logged)
25/03/2012 23:02
Agree with everything father alice says

1 win for 6th
2 wins for 5th
3 wins including saints or 4 wins for 4th (behind the winner of Saints v Tigers)

Win no more and 6th still likely with say 3 LBP

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: The run in...
clalan (IP Logged)
26/03/2012 08:24
Still pinching myself that we, the new team in its second season, are discussing whether we can make the play-offs.
Fantastic.

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: The run in...
Big-Chief (IP Logged)
26/03/2012 08:29
If this is the much vaunted "second season syndrome" I for one can't wait for "third season syndrome"!

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: The run in...
Dawlish chief (IP Logged)
26/03/2012 11:06
I've been saying for some time now, the Saints match is between us and them for a play off place. Now, even the puindits on ESPN are saying it too. Isn't that plagerism? (Sm161)

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: The run in...
Toomanychiefs (IP Logged)
26/03/2012 11:07
I`m not even gonna bother thinking about it.
Straight 4 wins to come methinks.This team just gets better and bettersmiling smiley



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2012:03:26:11:08:36 by Toomanychiefs.

 
gold blue army
Re: The run in...
gold blue army (IP Logged)
26/03/2012 11:28
You'll lose to us at Sixways.

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: The run in...
Little Plums (IP Logged)
26/03/2012 13:21
Quote:
gold blue army
You'll lose to us at Sixways.

I think the word everyone is looking for is:

Anyway....

How about those Chiefs, huh?

Seriously, though we are all speaking as if the Oirish and Wuss are a foregone conclusion. I think they could potentially be banana skins.

I have butterflies already when I think about his Saturday.

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: The run in...
Dawlish chief (IP Logged)
26/03/2012 13:35
Yes Little Plums, agree we are getting a bit carried away. Proceed with caution when approaching a must win match!

They all are, and with the team firing on all cylinders at the moments it is easy to get complacent. That is one trait Rob would never allow again .

 
Exeforever
Re: The run in...
Exeforever (IP Logged)
26/03/2012 13:48
I don't think that anyone is getting complacent. People are just examining the permutations and saying "this is what we havev to do" but nobody is saying that it is going to be easy. If we play against Irish like we played against Bath we won't even win that one. If we do win on Saturday then we have Stade to come. If we win that then I would expect the focus to shift more towards the Amlin in which case we might not even send the firsts to Worcester - in which case I wouldn't expect us to win there. I certainlly think that the composition of the Sarries side that we face will depend on whether we beat Northampton and therefore are in the play offs in which case they may well rest a lot of senior players and employ different tactics from if we are definitely 5th or 6th by then.

 
ChiefBottleWasher
Re: The run in...
ChiefBottleWasher (IP Logged)
26/03/2012 13:57
I think the sarries game depends more on whether sarries are assured of top 2 than anything Exe do. Therefore we want sarries to beat quins this weekend.

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: The run in...
Moorsman (IP Logged)
31/03/2012 22:48
2 from 2 so far so good (Sm134) do you think the boys will ruin my prediction by winning at Sarries as well (Sm100)

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: The run in...
rorky (IP Logged)
01/04/2012 09:14
If it is for 6th place the next three games we all know there is a possible 15 points on offer for all clubs. So have predicted likely points and added to their current score. I have not included Glaws as there are two places up for grabs and my calculator is overheating.

Bath have; Sale Sharks away, Wasps at home and Tigers away.

1 + 4 + 1 + 39 = 45


Sale have; Bath at home, Glaws away and Quins at home.

4 + 1 + 2 + 41 = 48

London Irish and other are unable to catch us for 6th.

Chiefs are on 53 points.

Another if:

If Chiefs pick up a LBP at all 3 matches or another 3 points then only Sharks can catch us. However Chiefs have a better head to head and points difference.

If Chiefs pick up another LBP and Bath fail to achieve max points the bath cannot beat us to 6th.

This is of course should there be no points deduction for playing too many overseas players. Could you imagine that scenario.

 
StewardSaffin
Re: The run in...
Little MissChief (IP Logged)
01/04/2012 09:34
I wouldn't put it past Ex in their current form and mental attitude to go in and win their remaining 3 games which includes Saints and with points to lose for either tigers or saints on 14th when they play eachother 4th place could also be on the cards! Flippin heck! I however will b happy whatever happens coz this has been an amazing season! Haven't stopped smiling!

 
ChiefBottleWasher
Re: The run in...
ChiefBottleWasher (IP Logged)
01/04/2012 21:20
If Exe get no more points it is just about possible for 2 of Gloucester, Bath or Sale to Pass us but it requires a pretty difficult set of results

Bath already need 3 Bonus point wins, assuming they aren't going to do that the only other combination that would mean dropping to 7th is

Gloucester need Bonus point wins versus Newcastle and Irish and a loosing bonus point Versus Sale Who need to Win all 3 Matches with at least one try bonus point.



On that basis Top 6 is pretty well nailed on a win versus Warriors would make it an absolute certainty.

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: The run in...
Moorsman (IP Logged)
15/04/2012 21:06
Typical you can't rely on some people! Almost 3 from 3 but the boys got a TBP (Sm60) Now all I want is to be correct next week (Sm134)

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: The run in...
Little Plums (IP Logged)
15/04/2012 22:36
Quote:
Little Plums
Quote:
gold blue army
You'll lose to us at Sixways.

I think the word everyone is looking for is:

Anyway....

How about those Chiefs, huh?

Seriously, though we are all speaking as if the Oirish and Wuss are a foregone conclusion. I think they could potentially be banana skins.

Happy to eat those words.

Glad also to see that Gold Blue Army isn't just a sore loser. It seems he's an idiot all the time.

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: The run in...
Moorsman (IP Logged)
01/05/2012 11:31
OK so now I'm 3 from 4 following the Saints game but I wouldn't be surprised if we don't come away from Sarries with a win and I'll be happy to settle for 3 from 5 (Sm100)

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: The run in...
TEE HEE HEE (IP Logged)
01/05/2012 11:36
Well done Moorsman I think we could win there too, and what an end that would be! Think Saints will stuff Woos though!

HEWHO ALWAYSTANDS

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: The run in...
Little Plums (IP Logged)
01/05/2012 12:47
So, it's time for me to climb off the fence. Anything is possible and fortune favours the underdog, so I predict Wuss to (narrowly) turn over Saints.

Our game, however, is a tricky one. Sarries could finish 1st, 2nd or 3rd (although I don't see Tiggers losing to Bath). They are no mugs and will be going for a home tie. However, I predict Chiefs to win by 3.

Let's take it to the wire

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: The run in...
fatheralice (IP Logged)
01/05/2012 13:33
I think we may cause an upset at Sarries too, but unfortunately I think Saints will beat Worc, so it will be in vain.

The Worc fan next to me at Sixways, assured me they ALWAYS win at FG, so we live in hope!

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: The run in...
Little Plums (IP Logged)
01/05/2012 14:02
Quote:
fatheralice
I think we may cause an upset at Sarries too, but unfortunately I think Saints will beat Worc, so it will be in vain.
The Worc fan next to me at Sixways, assured me they ALWAYS win at FG, so we live in hope!

Was his name Mr Gold Blue Army? If so, refer above to the validity of his prediction

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: The run in...
Dawlish chief (IP Logged)
01/05/2012 15:36
Well you know me, it's NEVER over till the fat lady sings ( sorry not being non-PC there ), With what we've achieved this year, it would take a brave person ( see how I stayed away from the PC police! ) not to back us the qualify even at this late stage.

C'mon Wuss, sorry for what we did to you the other week!! But they will know, Chiefs don't give up!

Hey o o o hey oo ah

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