By poorfour
July 11 2015
While we as fans would like Quins to win every game they play, the reality of modern rugby is that you just can’t do that, and one of the key skills for a Director of Rugby is to know which games to target. That doesn’t mean setting out to lose, but realistically a DoR knows that he can afford to lose some games, and knowing which ones he can take a risk on might influence the choice between fielding a first team player who’s not quite 100% or resting them and trusting their backup.
Somewhere, Conor will have a chart that looks a bit like the colourful one below, and he will use it to plan the season. But first, let’s look at how he decides the points totals required.
What’s our target?
Year |
Relegated |
11th |
7th |
5th |
2nd |
2014-15 |
1 |
34 |
54 |
68 |
75 |
2013-14 |
16 |
22 |
49 |
67 |
78 |
2012-13 |
23 |
33 |
53 |
60 |
74 |
2011-12 |
32 |
33 |
46 |
59 |
74 |
2010-11 |
23 |
23 |
52 |
62 |
76 |
2009-10 |
28 |
32 |
48 |
57 |
71 |
2008-09 |
17 |
34 |
53 |
61 |
66 |
2007-08 |
12 |
34 |
59 |
63 |
70 |
2006-07 |
33 |
34 |
51 |
61 |
71 |
2005-06 |
27 |
41 |
45 |
56 |
66 |
2004-05 |
38 |
40 |
47 |
57 |
73 |
2003-04 |
3 |
37 |
53 |
55 |
73 |
2002-03 |
34 |
36 |
42 |
56 |
62 |
Average |
22.1 |
33.3 |
50.2 |
60.2 |
71.5 |
Std Dev |
11.3 |
5.3 |
4.4 |
4.0 |
4.3 |
Target |
|
39 |
55 |
64 |
76 |
I’ve looked at the points needed to secure 2nd, 5th, 7th and 11th in the Premiership since playoffs were first introduced, and I’ve included the points total of the relegated team for good measure.
I chose those because Conor’s aim will be to secure 1st, 4th, 6th and 11th position respectively – but to secure 1st you only need to be a point better than 2nd, for 4th you need to be just better than 5th, for 6th just better than 7th. And so what I’ve done is to take the average score for those positions, and add one standard deviation. The resulting score would have secured the position we’re after in all but 1 or 2 years.
Using 12th place as our benchmark-to-beat is a bit dicey because it varies so much – the other positions all vary by about the same amount , but standard deviation for 12th is about 2.5x that of the other positions. So I’ve taken a belt-and-braces approach and targeted a score that should be enough to secure 10th place by using 11th as my benchmark. Conveniently, that gives us a target 1 point higher than the total we were relegated on back in 2005 – the highest total of any team ever to be relegated.
Blockbuster
So how do we build to those targets over a season? If you’ve followed Conor’s post-match comments over the last couple of years, you’ll be aware that he thinks of the season in terms of “blocks”. DoRs think of the premiership season as being punctuated by a series of natural breakpoints – European games, the 6N and this year the end of the Rugby World Cup – and the games between those breakpoints as “blocks”.
This enables them to set mini-targets for the team that they can realistically go after – “we need to win 3 out of the next 4 games” – but also to adjust them depending on how the season has gone so far. It also helps to manage the squad, since you have a reasonable view of who might be away on international duty, and who you want to keep fit for Europe.
I think next season will probably be viewed as 5 or 6 blocks (I’ve broken the 6N period down into 2 mini-blocks, as 7 games seems quite a lot), and taken a stab at what we need to get from each game to hit our targets.
There can be trade-offs. I’ve tended to emphasise getting something – even if it’s only an LBP – from as many games as possible over winning more games but not getting so many bonus points. Historically that’s been a reasonably successful way to look at things. But, broadly speaking, this is the shape of the season and we should be able to gauge how we are doing by referring to it over the course of the year.
|
|
|
|
11th |
39 |
6th |
55 |
4th |
64 |
1st |
76 |
Block |
Date |
Home team |
Away team |
Pts |
Tot |
Pts |
Tot |
Pts |
Tot |
Pts |
Tot |
1 |
16/10/2015 |
Harlequins |
Wasps |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
24/10/2015 |
Leicester Tigers |
Harlequins |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
4 |
8 |
|
31/10/2015 |
Bath Rugby |
Harlequins |
0 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
5 |
1 |
9 |
|
|
|
END of RWC 2015 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
07/11/2015 |
Harlequins |
Sale Sharks |
1 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
4 |
9 |
5 |
14 |
|
EPCR weeks |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
28/11/2015 |
Exeter Chiefs |
Harlequins |
0 |
3 |
0 |
6 |
1 |
10 |
4 |
18 |
|
05/12/2015 |
Harlequins |
London Irish |
4 |
7 |
5 |
11 |
5 |
15 |
5 |
23 |
|
|
|
EPCR weeks |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
27/12/2015 |
Harlequins |
Gloucester Rugby |
4 |
11 |
4 |
15 |
5 |
20 |
5 |
28 |
02/01/2016 |
Worcester Warriors |
Harlequins |
4 |
15 |
4 |
19 |
4 |
24 |
5 |
33 |
|
09/01/2016 |
Harlequins |
Saracens |
0 |
15 |
1 |
20 |
1 |
25 |
1 |
34 |
|
|
EPCR weeks |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
31/01/2016 |
Newcastle Falcons |
Harlequins |
4 |
19 |
4 |
24 |
4 |
29 |
4 |
38 |
|
|
|
START of 6N |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4 |
06/02/2016 |
Harlequins |
Northampton Saints |
1 |
20 |
1 |
25 |
1 |
30 |
4 |
42 |
13/02/2016 |
Gloucester Rugby |
Harlequins |
1 |
21 |
4 |
29 |
4 |
34 |
4 |
46 |
|
20/02/2016 |
Harlequins |
Leicester Tigers |
1 |
22 |
4 |
33 |
4 |
38 |
4 |
50 |
|
28/02/2016 |
Wasps |
Harlequins |
1 |
23 |
1 |
34 |
1 |
39 |
1 |
51 |
|
5 |
05/03/2016 |
Sale Sharks |
Harlequins |
1 |
24 |
4 |
38 |
4 |
43 |
4 |
55 |
12/03/2016 |
Harlequins |
Bath Rugby |
1 |
25 |
1 |
39 |
1 |
44 |
1 |
56 |
|
19/03/2016 |
Harlequins |
Worcester Warriors |
4 |
29 |
5 |
44 |
5 |
49 |
5 |
61 |
|
|
|
END of 6N |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6 |
26/03/2016 |
Northampton Saints |
Harlequins |
1 |
30 |
1 |
45 |
1 |
50 |
1 |
62 |
02/04/2016 |
Harlequins |
Newcastle Falcons |
4 |
34 |
4 |
49 |
5 |
55 |
5 |
67 |
|
|
EPCR QF week |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
16/04/2016 |
Saracens |
Harlequins |
0 |
34 |
0 |
49 |
0 |
55 |
0 |
67 |
|
|
EPCR SF week |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
01/05/2016 |
London Irish |
Harlequins |
4 |
38 |
5 |
54 |
5 |
60 |
5 |
72 |
|
07/05/2016 |
Harlequins |
Exeter Chiefs |
1 |
39 |
1 |
55 |
4 |
64 |
4 |
76 |
|
|
|
EPCR Finals week |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wins |
|
|
7 |
|
11 |
|
13 |
|
16 |
|
|
TBP |
|
|
0 |
|
3 |
|
5 |
|
7 |
|
|
LBP |
|
|
11 |
|
8 |
|
7 |
|
5 |
|
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Quote:Dark Pies
Just looking at this again after the first 5 games...great piece of work.
Its only just really dawned on me that we'll have 7 prem matches without the England boys during 6N, including 4 at home Saints, Tigers, Bath, Worcester. That is going to be a tough period without (potentially) Brown, Marler, Care, Robshaw....AND Roberts! (and maybe Yarde?) And there are only 2 home matches post 6N.
Therefore we need to be going flat out for TBP wins vs LI this weekend, Gloucester at BG8 and Falcons away.
And we need a big result vs Sarries at home, where we should in theory have all of our 1st choice 15 available.
So just the 19(!) points from the next 4 matches please and then hang in there near the top until the end.....