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Conor's Road Map 2015-2016


By poorfour
July 11 2015

While we as fans would like Quins to win every game they play, the reality of modern rugby is that you just can’t do that, and one of the key skills for a Director of Rugby is to know which games to target. That doesn’t mean setting out to lose, but realistically a DoR knows that he can afford to lose some games, and knowing which ones he can take a risk on might influence the choice between fielding a first team player who’s not quite 100% or resting them and trusting their backup.

Somewhere, Conor will have a chart that looks a bit like the colourful one below, and he will use it to plan the season. But first, let’s look at how he decides the points totals required.
What’s our target?


Year

Relegated

11th

7th

5th

2nd

2014-15

1

34

54

68

75

2013-14

16

22

49

67

78

2012-13

23

33

53

60

74

2011-12

32

33

46

59

74

2010-11

23

23

52

62

76

2009-10

28

32

48

57

71

2008-09

17

34

53

61

66

2007-08

12

34

59

63

70

2006-07

33

34

51

61

71

2005-06

27

41

45

56

66

2004-05

38

40

47

57

73

2003-04

3

37

53

55

73

2002-03

34

36

42

56

62

Average

22.1

33.3

50.2

60.2

71.5

Std Dev

11.3

5.3

4.4

4.0

4.3

Target

 

39

55

64

76

I’ve looked at the points needed to secure 2nd, 5th, 7th and 11th in the Premiership since playoffs were first introduced, and I’ve included the points total of the relegated team for good measure.

I chose those because Conor’s aim will be to secure 1st, 4th, 6th and 11th position respectively – but to secure 1st you only need to be a point better than 2nd, for 4th you need to be just better than 5th, for 6th just better than 7th. And so what I’ve done is to take the average score for those positions, and add one standard deviation. The resulting score would have secured the position we’re after in all but 1 or 2 years.

Using 12th place as our benchmark-to-beat is a bit dicey because it varies so much – the other positions all vary by about the same amount , but standard deviation for 12th is about 2.5x that of the other positions. So I’ve taken a belt-and-braces approach and targeted a score that should be enough to secure 10th place by using 11th as my benchmark. Conveniently, that gives us a target 1 point higher than the total we were relegated on back in 2005 – the highest total of any team ever to be relegated.

Blockbuster
So how do we build to those targets over a season? If you’ve followed Conor’s post-match comments over the last couple of years, you’ll be aware that he thinks of the season in terms of “blocks”. DoRs think of the premiership season as being punctuated by a series of natural breakpoints – European games, the 6N and this year the end of the Rugby World Cup – and the games between those breakpoints as “blocks”.

This enables them to set mini-targets for the team that they can realistically go after – “we need to win 3 out of the next 4 games” – but also to adjust them depending on how the season has gone so far. It also helps to manage the squad, since you have a reasonable view of who might be away on international duty, and who you want to keep fit for Europe.
I think next season will probably be viewed as 5 or 6 blocks (I’ve broken the 6N period down into 2 mini-blocks, as 7 games seems quite a lot), and taken a stab at what we need to get from each game to hit our targets.

There can be trade-offs. I’ve tended to emphasise getting something – even if it’s only an LBP – from as many games as possible over winning more games but not getting so many bonus points. Historically that’s been a reasonably successful way to look at things. But, broadly speaking, this is the shape of the season and we should be able to gauge how we are doing by referring to it over the course of the year.

 

 

 

 

11th

39

6th

55

4th

64

1st

76

Block

Date

Home team

Away team

Pts

Tot

Pts

Tot

Pts

Tot

Pts

Tot

1

16/10/2015

Harlequins

Wasps

1

1

1

1

4

4

4

4

24/10/2015

Leicester Tigers

Harlequins

1

2

1

2

1

5

4

8

31/10/2015

Bath Rugby

Harlequins

0

2

0

2

0

5

1

9

 

 

END of RWC 2015

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

07/11/2015

Harlequins

Sale Sharks

1

3

4

6

4

9

5

14

 

EPCR weeks

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

28/11/2015

Exeter Chiefs

Harlequins

0

3

0

6

1

10

4

18

05/12/2015

Harlequins

London Irish

4

7

5

11

5

15

5

23

 

 

EPCR weeks

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3

27/12/2015

Harlequins

Gloucester Rugby

4

11

4

15

5

20

5

28

02/01/2016

Worcester Warriors

Harlequins

4

15

4

19

4

24

5

33

09/01/2016

Harlequins

Saracens

0

15

1

20

1

25

1

34

 

EPCR weeks

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

31/01/2016

Newcastle Falcons

Harlequins

4

19

4

24

4

29

4

38

 

 

START of 6N

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4

06/02/2016

Harlequins

Northampton Saints

1

20

1

25

1

30

4

42

13/02/2016

Gloucester Rugby

Harlequins

1

21

4

29

4

34

4

46

20/02/2016

Harlequins

Leicester Tigers

1

22

4

33

4

38

4

50

28/02/2016

Wasps

Harlequins

1

23

1

34

1

39

1

51

5

05/03/2016

Sale Sharks

Harlequins

1

24

4

38

4

43

4

55

12/03/2016

Harlequins

Bath Rugby

1

25

1

39

1

44

1

56

19/03/2016

Harlequins

Worcester Warriors

4

29

5

44

5

49

5

61

 

 

END of 6N

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6

26/03/2016

Northampton Saints

Harlequins

1

30

1

45

1

50

1

62

02/04/2016

Harlequins

Newcastle Falcons

4

34

4

49

5

55

5

67

 

EPCR QF week

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

16/04/2016

Saracens

Harlequins

0

34

0

49

0

55

0

67

 

EPCR SF week

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

01/05/2016

London Irish

Harlequins

4

38

5

54

5

60

5

72

07/05/2016

Harlequins

Exeter Chiefs

1

39

1

55

4

64

4

76

 

 

EPCR Finals week

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wins

 

 

7

 

11

 

13

 

16

 

 

TBP

 

 

0

 

3

 

5

 

7

 

 

LBP

 

 

11

 

8

 

7

 

5

 

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Conor’s Premiership Roadmap 2015-16
Discussion started by ComeAllWithin.co.uk , 11/07/2015 23:41
ComeAllWithin.co.uk
11/07/2015 23:41
What do you think? You can have your say by posting below.
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Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 2016:06:08:12:11:23 by DOK.

harlequinade
12/07/2015 08:46
That's a really thorough and helpful piece of work, especially good to get the details on the process. Cheers Poorfour.

It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so. “ – Mark Twain

Jammy Git
12/07/2015 12:16
Good work again poorfour!

O Fortuna, velut luna statu variabilis,
semper crescis aut decrescis

RodneyRegis
12/07/2015 21:06
Fantastic work PF, very useful. Can we sticky it DOK?

DOK.
12/07/2015 22:15
Apparently you can! Never tried it with a front page article before!

InsertQuinsPunHere
13/07/2015 08:57
Marvellous, thanks Poorfour smiling smiley

FatQuin
13/07/2015 12:36
Too complicated for me but I think it means Quins will definitely win the Prem next season so that's good news!

InsertQuinsPunHere
13/07/2015 13:23
Each game is on one row - then the predictions & thus points are in columns for 11th, 6th, 4th, and 1st. There is a running total between each of these columns.

e.g. After Quins vs. Tigers in the "aiming for 4th place" column, we'll need to beat them to get our running total up to 38 for that point in the season.

Clear as mud?

EDITED to add: Assuming we don't get defensive scrum after defensive scrum camped on our try line whilst leaking yellow cards, but inexplicably not penalty tries!



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2015:07:13:13:25:07 by InsertQuinsPunHere.

poorfour
27/10/2015 12:56
As a checkpoint, two games in, we're tracking for 4th and could have been on track for 1st with a little more composure.

Remember: we shouldn't expect to win away games at top sides. Taking anything from the Bath game would probably be a good result, and my feeling from what I have seen so far is that we have enough to make it a close game if the RWC returnees are fitted in and firing.

poorfour
31/10/2015 17:10
First block over and we're on 9 points that could easily have been 12. A promising start, especially against 3 Top 6 sides.

Scaramouche
01/11/2015 15:53
Great work, thanks

Scaramouche
01/11/2015 16:07
Nn

Rocker
02/11/2015 12:57
Looking good good first place then.... Let's hope so :-)

RodneyRegis
02/11/2015 20:21
We're gonna win!

poorfour
02/11/2015 20:42
The next block will be quite telling.

I predicted that to target 1st place we'd need to pick up a decent number of TBPs against "weaker" opposition. Given the way Sarries have started, that's looking like a pretty accurate prediction - and we have a run of games coming up where we should be targeting tries.

If we can get the backline firing and pick up some extra points in the next few games, we can start to hope. Carry that form beyond Christmas, and we can start to believe.

Harley Quin
03/11/2015 19:51
Really neat. Thanks pourfour.

poorfour
08/11/2015 01:21
So as we go into the European break, we're tracking somewhere between 4th and 1st on the road map - and satisfyingly we are 3rd in the table.

Saracens have made a very strong start, albeit with a couple of easier games in their first block. Quins may come to regret the narrow loss at Welford Road in what's shaping up to be a season in which the old order is put under a bit of pressure, but all things considered this is a decent return from the opening few weeks, especially given the number of changes in the squad.

Once we get back to the Premiership, a trip to Sandy Park will give us a good measure of our season. A rare victory at one of the toughest venues to visit would give us some real cause for optimism.

poorfour
28/11/2015 18:18
So, won 3, lost 2 that we could have won - but both against tough opposition away from home.

15 points at this stage is actually pretty good. It suggests that we are in genuine contention for a Top 4 place - having had a very tough start to the season.

However, we have to set that against Sarries start to the season. They will be the team to beat, and overhauling them is going to be tough. That said, they have had a fairly easy fixture list with some much tougher games to come, and they are likely to lose a lot of players to England - while if some pundits and fans are to be believed, Quins will not.

A little more composure would ease the nerves, but the season is looking good so far.

Dark Pies
03/12/2015 14:24
Just looking at this again after the first 5 games...great piece of work.

Its only just really dawned on me that we'll have 7 prem matches without the England boys during 6N, including 4 at home Saints, Tigers, Bath, Worcester. That is going to be a tough period without (potentially) Brown, Marler, Care, Robshaw....AND Roberts! (and maybe Yarde?) And there are only 2 home matches post 6N.

Therefore we need to be going flat out for TBP wins vs LI this weekend, Gloucester at BG8 and Falcons away.

And we need a big result vs Sarries at home, where we should in theory have all of our 1st choice 15 available.

So just the 19(!) points from the next 4 matches please and then hang in there near the top until the end.....

Quins4life
03/12/2015 14:59
Quote:
Dark Pies
Just looking at this again after the first 5 games...great piece of work.
Its only just really dawned on me that we'll have 7 prem matches without the England boys during 6N, including 4 at home Saints, Tigers, Bath, Worcester. That is going to be a tough period without (potentially) Brown, Marler, Care, Robshaw....AND Roberts! (and maybe Yarde?) And there are only 2 home matches post 6N.

Therefore we need to be going flat out for TBP wins vs LI this weekend, Gloucester at BG8 and Falcons away.

And we need a big result vs Sarries at home, where we should in theory have all of our 1st choice 15 available.

So just the 19(!) points from the next 4 matches please and then hang in there near the top until the end.....

I agree the next 5 premiership games are crucial. And need to be targeting wins.

The thing is with the games during the 6Ns, you have to look at the teams we are playing against. Whilst we will be missing players, so will they. By playing leicester, bath and saints at home we have an advantage with the players they'll be missing too and they'll probably be missing more. Then we have a away games against Gloucester and Wasps who both have internationals too.

I would be more worried about the game at home against Worcester who will be more or less full strength...

poorfour
04/01/2016 09:14
A disappointing second half down in Worcester, but 3 more tries and 4 more points takes us to 27 points and 3rd in the table.

We're some way off 1st - hardly surprising given Sarries' start to the season. While their methods are odious, their form is ominous. I don't hold out a lot of hope for us to beat them next weekend. Even if we get good weather and they rest some players before the game with Ulster, it would need Quins to maintain their top form for the full 80 minutes.

However, those bonus points are starting to count for something. We've accumulated enough that we can actually afford to take nothing from the Sarries game and still remain on track for a Top 4 position. An LBP would be exactly that: a bonus.

All of which said, victory isn't impossible if we can maintain our discipline and defensive line, and kick intelligently. We have done all of those things at different points this season, just not at the same time or over the course of a full game.

poorfour
10/01/2016 00:50
Well, that's narrowed the gap a little. 31 points puts us comfortably in the top 4 for this stage of the season, with a very notable scalp claimed... The return match at Wembley rather than Allianz Park looks much more interesting now.

InsertQuinsPunHere
01/03/2016 11:57
Your numbers are pretty accurate so far!

Sarries top with 52 points (you suggested 51)

Tigers 4th with 40 (you suggested 39)

Quins 6th with 37 (you suggested 34 - which Glaws in 7th are on)

What are this weekend's lottery numbers?

DOK.
15/05/2016 10:54
Have to say for us that analysis was perfect. If you get 55 points you'll be seventh and guess what?

fandg2
03/08/2016 11:56
Are 'we' having a JK Road Map this season? I found Conor's Road map last season pretty useful

poorfour
03/08/2016 16:21
I can have a crack. I'm currently without laptop but if you remind me around 14th I will be able to pull something together.

Monte
03/08/2016 16:56
Excellent thank you 14th noted!

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