This Saturday Wasps meet the Tigers for the second time in five weeks. The previous meeting, at Adams Park, saw Wasps come out victorious by 24 points to 22, Leicester scoring a (to Wasps eyes) fortuitous try at the death to secure a losing bonus point. It was typical Leicester, fighting to the bitter end, determined to go home with something. Since then, both clubs have won three and lost one, although in vastly different circumstances. Leicester's only loss came in France against Clermont-Auvergne in the Heineken Cup, in a thrilling seventy point humdinger. Subsequent victories against Clermont and Sale at home, together with last week's deserved win away to table-topping Saracens, have seen an upturn in Leicester's form that bodes ill for their competitors. Wasps won both their matches against Bayonne in the Amlin Challenge Cup, and beat Harlequins at Twickenham just after Christmas. Last week, however, they suffered a tame home defeat to Newcastle in the league, as early season promise gives way to mid-season jitters.

Before that Adams Park match at the beginning of December, I noted that Leicester, while winning, had been doing so without scoring a huge number of tries, relying mainly on a dominant pack and the accuracy of Jeremy Staunton's boot. That has all changed – since that game, they have scored nine tries in four, including a bonus point against Sale. In contrast, over the same period the tries for Wasps have been getting thinner on the ground. Four in four games, and of those only one (the second against Quins) was what you'd call a team try – a sequence of plays to get in the right part of the pitch followed by a patient, accurate finish. Of course, it's rather churlish to be criticising the manner of scoring tries – scoring is what matters, after all – but for me, the health of a team's attacking play is measured by fifteen men acting as a cohesive unit rather than the individual brilliance of a player creating something out of nothing (feel free to disagree!). In those terms, Wasps haven't been playing great rugby over the last four weeks.

Against Newcastle, the Achilles' heel of the scrum struck once again. Injuries are a mitigating factor, but the fact remains that opponents have an opportunity to relieve any pressure we can bring to bear on them as long as they can force a set-scrum. The Shaw non-try was a case in point. Normally the opportunity to take a scrum five metres out from the opposition's line would result in more pressure, but on Saturday it did the opposite – it enabled Newcastle to clear their lines. The chance to score was gone. When Wasps did achieve parity in this area, with the introduction of new prop Sakaria Taulafu, the attacking play became easier, but a succession of turnovers denied Wasps any consistent possession with which to make a successful (and probably undeserved) tilt at victory. It is to be hoped that Ben Broster will be able to start this Saturday – and that Bob Baker is soaking up the experience of matches like the one against Newcastle, the better to be able to dish out his own pastings in the years to come.

And so to Saturday's match – if it goes ahead (inspections are still pending, but we remain hopeful). The Welford Road ground that Wasps will (or might) visit this weekend, aiming, though it's scarcely believable, for a third straight league victory at Tigers, has changed. The gigantic new Caterpillar stand that flanks one touchline could easily hold the entire crowd for most Wasps home games, and will no doubt be full of the usual baying, slow-hand-clapping, thoroughly unforgiving Leicester supporters that I've occasionally had the pleasure of standing next to on the Crumbie Terrace over the years. There is no harder place for a Guinness Premiership team to go and win, let alone one that has had its confidence dented just the week before. Leicester have got their tails up, have just demolished the league leaders at their own ground, and are starting to add try-scoring to their repertoire of party-pieces. All logic suggests that Wasps are in for a tough old day.

But you know what? I would have said the same for the past two years as well, and look what happened.

Prediction: a cold front moving down from the north, bringing icy conditions to...oh, er, Leicester to win. Sadly.

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