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News: AP: Northampton Saints vs Saracens - Match Preview


By HRsaints fan
April 23 2015

The Aviva Premiership season continues to hurtle towards a dramatic conclusion and this week reigning champions Northampton Saints welcome Saracens in a "home" match to be played at stadiummk in Milton Keynes. Regular COYSDC contributer, HRsaints fan (David), takes a comprehensive look ahead to the game...

 

 

NORTHAMPTON SAINTS vs. SARACENS

Saturday, 25th April 2015 - 3.15pm (BT)

stadiummk, MILTON KEYNES

MATCH PREVIEW

 

Three games to go and all to play for.

In what is turning out to be a really fascinating finish to the regular season we now get to Round 20 and our ‘home’ game against Saracens. Saints still sit on top of the pile with 67 points. However behind them is a veritable scrum for the play-off places with the gap between Saracens (2nd) and Wasps (6th) of only 8 points.

If you don’t mind indulging me for a minute the run-in’s of the top six clubs are worth a quick glance especially as they do have a bearing on our game against Saracens (I know - the art of stating the bleedin’ obvious).

Saints - Home -v- Saracens - Home -v- London Welsh - Away -v- Leicester Tigers

Saracens - Away -v- Saints - Home -v- Exeter - Away -v-London Welsh

Bath - Home -v- London Irish - Away -v- Harlequins - Home -v- Gloucester

Exeter - Away -v- Wasps - Away -v- Saracens - Home -v- Sale

Leicester - Home -v- London Welsh - Away -v- Wasps - Home -v- Saints

Wasps - Home -v- Exeter - Home -v- Leicester - Away -v- Irish

Whilst all of the other teams would prefer our position to theirs nevertheless a loss to Saracens would see Saints being drawn back into the melting pot although - in reality because of the home game against London Welsh - only in respect of a home advantage for the play offs. But there are some cracking games in that lot.

Bath has perhaps the easiest set of three but it is particularly interesting to see how many of the current top six have to play each other and that makes this finale of the regular season difficult to call. We also need to add into the mix the qualifying for the European Rugby Champions Cup as, alongside a top four finish in the Aviva Premiership, teams will also be intent on ensuring that they secure a place in next seasons premier European Club competition.

So if you can bear with me (again) I will explain how the ERCC qualifying works this time around as it does have a bearing on this run-in.

As last year the top six teams qualify for the ERCC from the Aviva Premiership with the final (20th) place in the competition going to the winner of a play-off (also similar to last year).

This year the play off is between three teams and it should be one hell of a match. God help the Referee for that one...hang on, no I should have read the qualifying rules a bit more. Sorry about that. There are two play-off games...silly me...! The first is between the 7th placed team from the Aviva Premiership or the winner of the Challenge Cup (if from the Aviva Premiership and not already qualified for the Champions Cup) and the highest ranked Pro12 team not already qualified. The second play off is between the winner of the first play-off game and the 7th ranked Top14 team with home advantage going to the winner of the first game. Still with me I hope...?

So Gloucester – having won convincingly against Exeter in the Challenge Cup Semi-final at the weekend – also has a chance to take part in the Champions Cup play-offs by winning against Edinburgh at The Stoop on the 1st May (and in doing so denying the club finishing 7th in the Premiership that Champions Cup play-off spot).

If we look at the games above you can see that the tussle for that cherished 6th place for Champions Cup qualification becomes even more tense. Sale must not be discounted as they lie in 7th only five points off 6th place and they only play one top six team before the end of the regular season. The scenario regarding whether Gloucester has or has not secured that Champions Cup play-off place will be known before the start of Round 21 (8th-10th May) and this may make the battle for the top six places (or seven places) even harder.

And additionally - as I mentioned above - all of the top six teams play two other top six teams in the last three games and this whole melting-pot makes for a great finish to the regular season as teams jostle for both a Premiership Play-off place for this season and a Champions Cup place for the next.

But let’s get back to our forthcoming game this Saturday against Saracens. Well it couldn’t be a more mouth-watering fixture.

1st versus 2nd. Only difference between the teams over 19 games is that Saints have won one more than Saracens. Total points scored Saints 536 and Saracens 556. Total points conceded Saints 358 and Saracens 352. Bonus points achieved Saints 9 and Saracens 7. Tries scored Saints 67 Saracens 56. (The only comment I would make about the above is that these statistics are slightly skewed by Saracens 11 try massacre of London Welsh and Saints are still to welcome the recently relegated Welsh to Franklins Gardens, although Saracens will visit them for the Round 22 game).

Saracens away form is played 9, won 4, drawn 1, lost 4. Saints home form is played 9, won 8, drawn 0, lost 1. On that basis it would appear that Saints, based on their home form, have the upper hand. However this game is not a home game but is being played at MK Stadium at the behest of England Rugby 2015 who want a “test event” in preparation for the three World Cup games that will be staged there in October this year. So, in effect, there is no home advantage as this is far more of a neutral venue than anything else. Indeed Saints have only played there four times. Two of those were ‘home’ games in the Heineken Cup (Ulster 2011 and Munster 2012) one was as a neutral venue for the 2011 Heineken Cup Semi-Final (Perpignan) and there was one away game (Saracens 2012 – the day the bar got in the way of a victory for Saints).

The other consideration is the recent current form of both teams in the Aviva Premiership. Taking the games since Christmas (Round 12) both have played 8 games and both have lost two of those games (Saints have also drawn one). Both sides lost away to Sale (no particular disgrace in that). Saints best performance – for me anyway – was away to Bath. Saracens notched up some good performances with perhaps the pick of the bunch being the substantial victory against Quins at a packed Twickenham (although the Wasps away game was also a good performance and brought to an end Wasps brief unbeaten home form at Coventry).

So Saints gathered 24 points over this period to Saracens 26. What might be a more worrying figure is the figure in the “points against” column, with Saints giving up 170 and Saracens 122 to their respective opponents. Add to this the Saints loss to Clermont (which must have hurt) and the following loss to Exeter, I think it would be fair to say that Saracens come into the game in a better place form-wise.

Chris Ashton looks to have rediscovered his mojo (apart from the fact that someone needs to teach him that tackling is meant to involve both of his arms) and they must be buoyed by the return of Shalk Brits and Owen Farrell from injury. Additionally it does now look like they have shaken off the loss of Steve Borthwick which undoubtedly affected them early season.

Lawrence Dallaglio, in his role as Ambassador for England Rugby 2015, visited the MK Stadium recently and made the following statement about Saracens - “Saracens have been grinding out results, getting people back from injury, but they’ve gone to the Ricoh Arena and taken away Wasps’ home record, and gone to Paris and won in the Champions Cup, so they’ll arrive in good shape”.

They will be bitterly disappointed to have lost to Clermont at the weekend and they could have won the game but seemed to lack an attacking edge when they needed it. Nevertheless they still play a style of the game which plays to their strengths and they will be as determined as ever to end this season on a high.

So what of the Saints?

Well I was very grateful to Fair_weather_fan for his report on the Exeter game. I didn’t manage to see the full game and so I read a few reports in various national newspapers. Even then it seemed that no-one could make their minds up about what had actually taken place. Some called the Exeter performance “commanding” whilst others seemed to be more circumspect. So to read FWF’s report and to see that, save for some uncharacteristic fumbles near the try line, the result may well have been different was encouraging for many of us that were worried about Saint’s recent dip in form. This also seems to be the view of Jim and the players, and what encouraged me were the comments about our attacking play and the fact that we seemed to have kept the ball in hand rather than the aimless kick and chase style that has beset our game of late.

Dallaglio again - “The Saints have been going well to be at the top of the Aviva Premiership, but getting an opportunity to beat a quality side like Saracens will be key for them. They’ve been having a bit of a wobble, but will be determined to show people that they can retain their title in a competitive league”.

I still believe that when our attacking game is on song and we are playing front foot rugby we can be almost impossible to stop. The problem (again stating the bleedin’ obvious) is that we have been playing neither front foot rugby nor any clinical attacking rugby (too many fumbles and missed passes for my liking). But the coaches and the squad are saying the right things, and they know more than anyone that we need to quickly find the form of earlier in the season.

We are undoubtedly missing Ben and George, and several key players need to find their form again but I think the two week layoff will help in this respect as well as giving injuries (Courtney and Alex C amongst others) time to heal.

In terms of team selection there has been an excellent thread running since 16 April started by ‘alwayshopeful’ entitled “Team for Saracens” so I would recommend a quick look at people’s knowledgeable comments there.

For me I think that both squads will be very strong and there will be good match-ups all over the pitch. We know what Saracens will bring to the party so I would expect a Saints game plan and team selection to counter the Sarries strengths as well as playing to our own (somewhat different) strengths. Saracens will want revenge for their home loss to us back in November and we will want to put down a marker in (almost) securing a home semi-final for the play-offs whilst additionally putting a dent in Saracen’s desire for a home semi-final berth. I think both teams have a real respect for each other but if Saints capture some form and find that clinical edge that was so prevalent earlier in the season I can see us wining this (but not by much!).

Come on you Saints.

 

 

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News: AP: Northampton Saints vs Saracens - Match Preview
Discussion started by ComeOnYouSaints.com , 23/04/2015 11:16
ComeOnYouSaints.com
23/04/2015 11:16
What do you think? You can have your say by posting below.
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Sarge
23/04/2015 12:28
Unusual game in that we are the home team, yet the last time we played Sarries at MK they were the home team.

The only other time I can think of that we have played the same team at the same ground for a home fixture and an away fixture was against Launceston in our Dvision 1 year.

Can anybody come up with another example?

St Dormouse
23/04/2015 13:00
Excellent read HR. This is the biggy for me. Win this and i feel top spot is ours. While a loss is not the end of the world and a home semi is still.very much on the cards i think the momentum needs to start now. I would have felt more confident at the gardens but i'm looking forward to a packed house at mk and hoping very much that the majority will be supporting saints and not some bussed in rent a crowd that often appear at these big games.

To Mega Therion
23/04/2015 13:39
Good preview, and good info on the bigger picture. Cheers.

https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTMpKHV_mtVeNi9mSYLq3K1i9NvBslw7N8R4UvEbLchopTFrP2k
Who removed my H.R. Giger picture?

Phil.
23/04/2015 15:22
David - I've done my usual trick of publishing an article and then neglecting to thank the author of the piece.

Many apologies, good sir - another great read! smiling smiley

Howlin
23/04/2015 16:21
Excellent preview thanks. Pretty much sums up my thoughts. With Fodes and probably George missing we really need Ken P to rediscover his mojo.

Saint 'til I die

ch saint
23/04/2015 18:35
Thanks for the excellent summary of the run in together with the match preview.

fair_weather_fan
23/04/2015 20:33
A well written piece that sets the scene for the end of season fireworks, thanks very much

St Marlowe
23/04/2015 22:54
Great preview, thank you David. Your words sum up my feelings very well!

David L

What if there were no hypothetical questions?

- Live wrong and preposterously

SAINT_aitch
24/04/2015 07:07
Excellent mouth watering piece. Looking forward to this one and reckon we can do the required.

COME ON YOU SAINTS

SaintED
24/04/2015 09:12
Great preview. Hope it's a great game and that we win!

riverlodge
24/04/2015 09:41
Very good preview.

its stating the b** obvious, but we need to come straight out of the blocks at pace for this. i'd also hope that our tactics are spot on, and we don't enter a kick tennis competition with the masters. would like to see Wilson and Pisi running the ball back (and with support) much more often than we have been seeing.

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