By Behindthebench
February 13 2015

Saracens vs Bath Rugby.  Aviva Premiership Rugby.  Allianz Park.  Sunday 15 February 2015. 1.00 PM Kick-Off. I've always looked forward to Saracens vs Bath games. Almost nine years to the day, the first ever Saracens, and indeed Rugby Union, match I'd ever watched was the home defeat to Bath on 12 February 2006, a topsy-turvy encounter between two then-underachieving sides, which finished 34-29 to the visitors. Up to then, I'd just been to Rugby League matches, and, it's fair to say, converts from league to union are a hot topic at the moment for the West Country side.  

In practice, though, the media circus has been rather odd in its coverage of Sam Burgess' switch to the club, seeming to forget that unlike tennis, this is a team game, and, rushing to judgement as to whether the move has been a "success" or not, basing his England aspirations on the basis of a subdued display in a subdued Saxons match in Cork. For now, there are wider matters of concern for Bath. As alluded to on the Bath SportNetwork site, the fact that all of England's points in the famous victory in Cardiff came from their players is perhaps bitter-sweet, as it shows just how influential they are to the club's performances and hopes. Fixtures at this time of year are a key measure of teams' strength in depth, something which Saracens appear to have a distinct edge in, given recent performances in the LV= Cup and Aviva A League, and winning both games in the "double header" weekend, despite a significant number of call-ups. Nigel Wray's programme notes for the Exeter LV= Cup game mentioned the difficulties caused by the club game going head to head with the Six Nations, as, indeed it does with the autumn internationals, meaning that a key game like this one will not, by necessity, feature full-strength sides. However, the conflict is arguably more significant from the detrimental effect on spectator numbers, as the international players would still need to be rested for certain games if club and country games dovetailed, as it does to a better extent in Ireland for example, where there is less of an overlap between the Pro12 League and internationals, but still leads to questionable situations like Munster vs Leinster featuring weakened sides, even though this was well outside the window.

Anyway, enough of the theory and politics, and onto the game itself. Although there are eight regular Premiership matches after this one, it still has a Quarter Final feel about it, given its significance to Sarries' hopes of securing a home semi-final berth. Presently, Bath have an eight point lead in second place, and, it's fair to say, any sort of win for the visitors would put them out of sight, and Saracens more reliant on trying to overtake Northampton Saints, with the relocated April match at Milton Keynes assuming even more significance. That's the pessimistic view. Win, and Saracens are in the heart of the battle for a top two spot, as well as going a long way to cementing their play-off place. Key to whether the home side can do this is the battle between the packs, which still remain formidable despite the number of absentees with England, whereas, in contrast, Saracens might have an advantage in the backs if they can secure quality ball, although the visitors can still field players of the calibre of England duo Matt Banahan and Semesa Rokoduguni. Bath were visitors to Allianz Park on the final day of the regular season in 2013, when they were edged out 23-14, with Chris Ashton, Mako Vunipola and Owen Farrell scoring Saracens' tries, and the home side duly sealed top spot. 

It wasn't long before Bath were back in NW4, as the following September saw them lose 31-17 as David Strettle scored twice, alongside contributions from Alex Goode and Matt Stevens, setting up an impressive bonus point success against the previously undefeated visitors. Last season was destined to end in disappointment as they lost out on the final play-off place to Harlequins on the closing day of the campaign, but the steep development curve of the side under former Saracens coach Mike Ford has seen them evolve into the most devastating side in the competition on their day, combining a powerful set of forwards with an array of exciting backs which only Saracens and Northampton could even start to match. Their playing record at the top of the table is identical to the Saints, with ten wins and three defeats, the only difference being that they have one less bonus point. Starting the season with a hard-fought 29-20 win at Sale, they demolished London Welsh 53-26 in their first Recreation Ground outing of the campaign. They topped that in some style by piling on five tries without reply in a 45-0 humbling of old adversaries Leicester Tigers, again at the Rec, only to come in second place in the top of the table clash at Northampton, where they lost 31-24, but at least fought back for the losing bonus point.

October opened with a powerful display in a 21-11 home win over Saracens, Jonathan Joseph and Kyle Eastmond getting the tries for the hosts, and Chris Wyles replying for the visitors. Unexpectedly, they hit a blip, which appeared to have ended their European hopes before they'd began. On an emotional Sunday at Adams Park just after Wasps had announced their move to Coventry, the home side rallied to a 29-21 win and Bath went on to suffer a double defeat in Europe, 37-10 at Glasgow and 21-19 at home to Toulouse. The stuttering form continued into the LV= Cup in November when a 47-7 home win over London Welsh preceded a defeat at holders Exeter Chiefs. Seven straight wins reasserted their dominance and dramatically reignited their Champions Cup campaign. A trio of Premiership victories against Newcastle, London Irish and Harlequins were followed by a nine point haul in away and home victories against Montpellier, Matt Banahan getting a hat trick at the Rec. Back in the Aviva Premiership, a clear advantage in the scrum set up a 39-16 success at Gloucester, which was backed up by a comfortable 31-14 home win over Exeter. 

Moving into 2015, Leicester gained revenge for the early season humiliation as they won at Welford Road, but the unbeaten league record at the Rec continued as Wasps were seen off 39-26 in a key win against a fast-emerging challenger. Even better was to come as an epic 35-18 bonus point win in the South of France gave Bath a chance of qualification for the Quarter Finals despite losing their first two games, a chance they finally took in a tight 20-15 home win over Glasgow, as Toulouse fell to a surprise loss at Montpellier, and Bath progress to an away Quarter Final against Leinster in the Aviva Stadium. The West Country club retained an interest in the LV= Cup by winning at Harlequins, but Sarries' win against Exeter put them out of contention irrespective of the home loss to Ospreys.

Looking at potential line-ups, Saracens will need to deploy their strongest available XV, so the following would appear a possibility: Alex Goode at full back, with Chris Ashton and David Strettle on the wings, and a centre partnership of Tim Streather and Chris Wyles. Charlie Hodgson and Neil de Kock should combine at half back. In the forwards, the front row seems likely to feature Richard Barrington, Jamie George and Petrus du Plessis, with Maro Itoje and Alistair Hargreaves in the second row, and a back row of Kelly Brown, Jackson Wray and Ernst Joubert. For Bath, who have brought forward Tom Homer's move from London Irish as a replacement for Gavin Henson, they may opt to field him straight away at full back given issues with goalkicking when George Ford is away. If Kyle Eastmond is available, he should be alongside Sam Burgess, with Matt Banahan and Rokoduguni on the wings, and Ollie Devoto at fly half with Peter Stringer at scrum half. Moving to the forwards, ex Saracen Nick Auterac should be alongside Rob Webber and Henry Thomas, with a lock combination of Stuart Hooper and Dominic Day, and a back row trio of Matt Garvey, Francois Louw and Leroy Houston.