Game-changer?

By Behind the Bench
April 10 2015

After the euphoria of the last-gasp win in Paris, Saracens return to Aviva Premiership action with a vital home clash against Leicester Tigers, in a fixture which is vital to both sides' hopes of finishing in the top two, and looks on course for a sell-out.

If the key threat of Racing Metro last week was their backline, at least in theory, Leicester pose quite a different threat, as their lineout and scrum has been outstanding in recent weeks, and has been at the heart of a quintet of victories which sees them just two points behind the all-important second place occupied presently by Sarries. It raises something of a selection conundrum for the home side, with the semi-final against Clermont just a week away. However, the LV= Cup and A League triumphs prove not only Saracens' strength in depth but also the winning mentality of the players in the so-called "second string", meaning rotation is not as big an issue as it might be.

With teams yet to be announced, at the time of writing, the focus for both now and next week will be Sarries' forwards, as both matches seem destined to be decided by the scrum to a certain extent, and the first looks set to be a tight encounter in particular. So, the back line might see some changes, with Ben Ransom coming in at full back, Chris Ashton on the right wing, Marcelo Bosch with Chris Wyles in the centres, and Catalin Fercu on the left wing, with a half back combination of Neil de Kock and Ben Spencer. In the forwards, Mako Vunipola should continue at loosehead with Schalk Brits perhaps returning at hooker, and James Johnston at tighthead. The lock combination will probably feature George Kruis and Jim Hamilton, with a back row of Kelly Brown, Jackson Wray and Billy Vunipola, as Jacques Burger has received a one match ban for striking Maxime Machenaud last week.

For Leicester, it's likely they'll stay with a similar line up to the one which beat Exeter last time out. That would see Matthew Tait at full back, with Adam Thompstone and Fijian Vereniki Goneva on the wings, outside a centre partnership of Matt Smith, and Fijian veteran Seremaia Bai. The half back combination of fly half Freddie Burns and scrum half Ben Youngs has been in good form in recent weeks. Into the forwards, and club stalwart Argentinian loosehead Marcos Ayerza should form a formidable front row with the England duo of hooker Tom Youngs and tighthead Dan Cole, whilst in the second row South African Sebastian De Chaves should combine with Exeter-bound Geoff Parling. Completing the line up, the back row seems likely to consist of Jamie Gibson, bound for the Saints in the close season, with Julian Salvi and Jordan Crane.

Having looked well out of contention in a faltering first half of the campaign, Leicester have come into form in recent weeks, as they have so many times before. It was a mixed beginning to the season, even given their reputation for being slow starters, although they did win their first two matches, getting underway with a 36-17 bonus point home win over Newcastle Falcons in which reigning player of the season Vereniki Goneva claimed a hat trick, before emerging from Sandy Park with a 24-20 away win at the Chiefs, which looks priceless given how the season has panned out. 

The campaign reached its nadir with three straight losses. Significantly, perhaps, Manu Tuilagi, who had been so influential in the pair of wins, was absent through injury, as the East Midlands side capitulated 45-0 at old rivals Bath, to suffer their largest ever Premiership defeat and only their second failure to score in the competition. Back at Welford Road, as the injuries in the centres forced further reshuffles, London Irish claimed a rare 22-19 win, and a return to the West Country, this time at Kingsholm, saw another defeat, as the visitors trailed 30-9 at the break, failing, as in the defeat at the Rec, to deal with the pace and movement of their hosts, eventually losing 33-16, in a match which saw veteran lock Brad Thorn make his debut for the club. The visit of Harlequins provided an opportunity to end the losing sequence, and it was duly taken, as a 22-16 win restored Leicester to the top five, with Tuilagi back in the side

Into Europe, and the Champions Cup got underway, with a strong first half performance creating a platform for a 25-18 home success against Ulster, only for a 15-3 loss to ensue at Scarlets in the second match. Meanwhile, the run to the LV= Cup semi-finals began with a 17-16 win at London Irish backed up by a 29-13 home success against Sale Sharks, whilst back in the Premiership, Tigers shared a 21-21 draw with Sarries, with seven penalties for each side, and a tight call at the scrum gave the Tigers an equalising penalty in the last action of the match. The visitors' forward power proved decisive in a 26-5 win at London Welsh, as they returned to the hunt for the top five, a pursuit strengthened when Owen Williams' six penalties, the last two minutes from the end, edged out Wasps 18-16.

The sense that the Tigers were returning to their old selves continued as 20 more points from Williams, as well as a Thorn try set up a stirring 25-21 home win against RC Toulon, although the return match brought a 23-8 loss. A return to league action saw a trip to Northampton Saints, where the Tigers bowed out in the play-offs last season, and a similarly epic encounter saw a 23-19 loss despite Northampton playing 62 minutes with 14 men following the dismissal of Dylan Hartley. They repaired some of the damage though by recovering from a 15 point deficit to earn a vital 32-30 win at emerging challengers Sale Sharks, just after Christmas, and revenge was gained against Bath as a 17-8 win took them to the fringes of the play-off places in the first match of 2015, only to then suffer a 32-12 reverse at Harlequins.

Into the knock-out competitions, and a commanding 40-23 home win over Scarlets maintained European hopes going into the final match, but these were thwarted as a 26-7 loss was suffered at Ulster. There proved to be better news in the LV, though, as a 17-8 home win over Northampton and crunching 43-9 success at Cardiff Blues served up a home semi-final, only for the Chiefs to upset the odds by claiming an away win. That blip aside, the Tigers arrive in NW4 with a string of five straight wins, although tries have been at something of a premium, with only five scored in these matches, with the decisive factor being their forward power as a source of scrum penalties. The run began with a pair of try-less successes, 18-15 at home to Gloucester, and a 12-6 victory at London Irish, before Laurence Pearce and Seremaia Bai crossed the whitewash in a 28-8 home win over Sale, breaking a spell of over five hours without a try. They came out on top, 16-12 at Newcastle, ahead of a 25-18 home win over Exeter, which restored them to the play-off places.