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Looking forward and upwards


Moorsman

By Moorsman
March 8 2011

Exeter Chiefs great win over Saints has been covered widely in the Press so instead of reviewing the Chiefs best win in the Premiership (so far) I've decided to look at where the Chiefs are now and where we might be by the end of the season.

crystal ball

 

 Now we can afford to be looking up the table not looking down I thought I'd take a look at our prospects.

Before the season started this is how I saw it...

How Many Points Do We Need?

To Make it to Season 2 in the Prem.
I know the obvious answer is 1 more than the 12th placed team but I thought there might be some indication from the last few seasons.  Well here's how the bottom four finished in the last 5 years of the Premiership.
Position
09/10
08/09
07/08
06/07
05/06
9th
NewcastleSaracensBristolNewcastleBath
 37
 47
 38
 44
46
10th
LeedsNewcastleWorcesterSaleSaracens
36
44
36
42
46
11th
SaleWorcesterNewcastleWorcesterBristol
32
W 6
D 1
L
15
TBP 0
LBP 6
34
W 7
D 2
L
13
TBP 0
LBP 2
34
W 7
D 0
L
15
TBP 1
LBP 5
34
W 6
D 1
L
15
TBP 0
LBP 8
41
W 8
D 1
L
13
TBP 0
LBP 7
12th
WorcesterBristolLeedsSaintsLeeds
28
W 3
D
4
L
15
TBP 0
LBP 8
17
W
2
D
1
L 19
TBP 1
LBP 6
12
W 2
D 1
L 19
TBP 0
LBP 2
33
W
6
D
1
L
15
TBP 1
LBP 6
28
W
5
D 0
L
17
TBP 1
LBP 7

And Now... 

We are currently (8th March) in 9th spot with the following record :-

Played
Won
Draw
Lost
For
Against
BP
P
16
8
0
8
308
303
4
36

With our remaining games being:-

London Irish (a) - 5th, played 17, 39 points (3 points behind and a game in hand )
Leeds Carnegie (a) - 12th, played 15, 13 points (23 points ahead and played one more game)
Bath (a) - 4th, played 15, 40 points (4 points behind and played one game more)
Saracens (h) - 2nd, played 17, 55 points (19 points behind and a game in hand)
Sale Sharks (a) - 10th, played 16, 22 points (14 points ahead and played same number of games)
London Wasps (h) - 8th, played 17, 38 points (2 points behind and a game in hand)

Chiefs are also just 3 points behind Quins with a game in hand and 3 points behind Saints who have played 1 game less.

So, it's time to get out the crystal ball and predict some results/points for these games!  I'm going to throw caution to the wind and say we are in with a good chance of winning all 6 games but don't ask me to predict scores.  At 4 points for each win that would give us a season end total of 60 points and a likely 7th place although if other results go for us there is an outside chance of a top 6 finish.  OK to win all 6 would be a dream but I can't see us losing more than 2 with a LBP in those, which would give us 54 points and a minimum 7th or 8th finishing spot.  Who would have believed I could be dreaming of such a fantastic result just 7 months into our maiden Premiership campaign.

It's great fun this Premiership lark!!

Can't wait for the party to go on with the Paddy's Day visit to the MadStad

Come  On  You  Chiefs  Chiefs  Chiefs

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thechiefstribe.com
Looking forward and upwards
thechiefstribe.com (IP Logged)
08/03/2011 22:56
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ChiefBottleWasher
Re: Looking forward and upwards
ChiefBottleWasher (IP Logged)
09/03/2011 07:16
If we won all 6 that would automatically put us ahead of Wasps and Irish unless they get 4 try bonuses in all 4 of thier other games = 7th Minimum

HArlequins would have to win all 5 of thier games with at least one bonus point to deny us 6th (Not a mutually exclusive event as Harlequins play the top 4 and Leeds.

Not saying it is in any way likely, just that if we won all 6 , top 6 is not an outside chance but a near certainty. In fact top 4 would be an outside chance if bath and saints don't do well.

It is good to dream smiling smiley

 
MESSAGES->author
Re: Looking forward and upwards
black_otter (IP Logged)
09/03/2011 08:14
That's a great way to look at things, Moorsman, although I confess that it still feels slightly unnatural/surreal! 6 out of 6 from the final games would be incredible, and perhaps a more realistic number slightly less than that is still an outstanding feat. I don't think we should underestimate tho how difficult it is to win away from home in the AP, leaving our visits to Sarries and Falcons aside, and to a lesser extent our trips to Saints and Tigers. None of Irish, Bath, Sale or Leeds will be lying down easily, so they won't be easy road trips. On that basis, two home wins and two away wins plus the odd bonus point feels well within our capabilities - more than happy to be proved wrong with 6 wins tho!!

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