Quater Finals Betting Preview
By Betting Zone
October 5 2007
If the pool stages of this year's Rugby World Cup have taught us anything, it's that there are no easy games in rugby union and the more professional the game gets and the fitter the players become, then surely 100-plus point games are going to be a thing of the past.
October 5 2007
If the pool stages of this year's Rugby World Cup have taught us anything, it's that there are no easy games in rugby union and the more professional the game gets and the fitter the players become, then surely 100-plus point games are going to be a thing of the past.
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The so-called minnows have covered themselves in glory in this tournament and whilst the last eight are pretty much as expected (with one or two exceptions), some of the games in the groups have not been the drubbings that were predicted. The two major shocks that people have been talking about are Argentina's win over France and Fiji's win over Wales but for me, Ireland's narrow win over Georgia was a major surprise, whilst the USA's performance against England was also worthy of note. Wales, Ireland and Italy have all fallen by the wayside in the pool stages and with England and France also disappointing, this has been a tournament for the southern hemisphere so far. New Zealand have drifted in the betting to 8/11 but that's only because they now have to face France in the quarter-finals rather than either Ireland or Argentina. South Africa have been the big movers in the betting following the pool stages and Jake White's men are now as short as 9/4 with Sky Bet The Pumas have shaken up the rugby world by topping the 'pool of death' and the surprise packages of this World Cup (but not to Bettingzone followers) have played to their strengths magnificently and in Juan Martin Hernandez, they have one of the stars of world rugby. England are quite rightly considered one of the rags at 40/1 and they will do very well to get past Australia on Saturday. Brian Ashton's man have improved since their abject displays against the USA and South Africa but the form they showed against Tonga last week will not be good enough to trouble the Wallabies. They need to step it up here. There will be several accumulators written out this weekend in betting shops across the country with Australia, New Zealand, South Africa and Argentina on the slip but as this World Cup has shown already, we should be expecting the unexpected. Could New Zealand - who have been heir apparent to England's World Cup for the past two years - trip up again in the knockout stages?
AUSTRALIA v ENGLAND (Marseille - Saturday, 14.00) The first quarter-final of the weekend is a repeat of the 2003 final as holders England take on Australia, who will be hell-bent on revenge after Jonny Wilkinson's drop-goal secured victory for England on the Wallabies home turf four years ago. A lot of water has passed under the bridge since then and Australia go into this game as the twelve point favourites to secure a place in the last four. John Connolly's men will have seen England wobble already against South Africa in this tournament and will be keen to humiliate Brian Ashton's men, who have hardly had the best preparation for this fixture. Andy Farrell was initially picked to partner Mathew Tait in the centres but the ex-rugby league star has had to pull out of the squad with a strained calf muscle leaving Ashton will the option of fielding a lightweight centre partnership of Tait and Barkely or opting for the slightly heavier Dan Hipkiss. His hand may be forced as Barkley may not be fit anyway so it will be interesting so see which way he turns. Connolly has surprisingly dropped the leading try-scorer Drew Mitchell to the bench for this match, preferring the skills of Adam Ashley-Cooper on the wing. Australia captain Stirling Mortlock returns to outsidecentre after recovering from a shoulder injury which kept him out of the pool victories over Fiji and Canada. Rookie fly-half Berrick Barnes and scrum-half George Gregan return to the side after being rested for the Canada game. First choice stand-off Stephen Larkham continues his rehabilitation and will be available for the latter stages of the tournament should the Wallabies qualify. One swallow does not a summer make and I can't quite believe England are only given a twelve point start. They are improving but Ashton's initial side looked very defensive and if England go into this game with this mindset, then they are going to get soundly beaten - as they did against South Africa. They've done okay to get to the quarters and I think deep down that this was the objective but the road to Saint-Denis ends here for them and I would be massively surprised if they were to come out on top here. Verdict: Australia by 20.
NEW ZEALAND v FRANCE (Cardiff - Saturday, 20.00) Full marks to the IRB and the World Cup organisers for engineering a system whereby the hosts could play a quarter-final outside of their own country which is what we have here as France take on New Zealand in Cardiff. The reasons for Edinburgh and Cardiff being involved in this tournament have been well documented but how the organisers couldn't have given the Cardiff game to a quarter-final that couldn't have possibly featured France is beyond me. Anyway, the Millennium Stadium is the venue whether the French like it or not and what had been touted as a possible final is now only a last eight fixture but what a match it promises to be. France seemed to be overcome by a sense of occasion on the opening night and could not get into a rhythm against Argentina but have settled down nicely since then and look to be gradually coming to the boil. New Zealand were particularly impressive against Italy in their opening game but you could argue that they have yet to be tested in this World Cup - as most of their opponents have fielded weakened sides against them - and this could well work against them coming into a huge fixture like this. Henry has named what is perceived to be his strongest side for this game, with Dan Carter coming back at fly-half and Luke McAlister moving back to inside centre. McAlister will be joined by fit again Mils Muliaina in the centres, whilst Leon MacDonald has also made a full recovery from his hamstring problem and will occupy the fifteen jersey. The only surprise in the back line sees Joe Rokocoko preferred to Doug Howlett on the wing. French coach Bernard Laporte has named an experimental line-up for this game and his inclusion of Damien Traille at full-back and Lionel Beauxais at fly-half suggests that France are going to be playing a kicking game on Saturday evening. Fabien Pelous takes over at lock, meaning the Caveman Sebastien Chabal is only on the bench - expect to see him used to good effect as an impact player though. This is a tough one to call. Had this been the final, I'm pretty sure the handicap would have been less than twelve and I'm not sure it should be that big now. However, France are not playing this at home so that's a lot of their advantage gone. I'm going to take a chance on the French though, as they definitely have the ability to win this and with the Kiwis not having been tested yet, they may be slow out of the traps on Saturday evening. Verdict: New Zealand by seven.
SOUTH AFRICA v FIJI (Marseille - Sunday, 14.00) South Africa look to have a pretty straightforward route through to the final, hence their general quote of 5/2 to win the tournament. They may not find Argentina so easy to get past next week but they shouldn't reallyhave any trouble in despatching Fiji, whose heroics against Wales last weekend enabled them to reach the last eight. South Africa haven't really had to get out of third gear to qualify from their pool, as England weren't much competition and although they had a scare against Tonga a couple of weeks ago, they sailed through the group as winners. Fiji had a slightly tougher time in qualifying but manage it they did and the country better known for its sevens side is slowly making an impact in the fifteen-a-side game. South Africa are going through something of a front-row crisis ahead of this game but it shouldn't really harm there chances. Bismarck du Plessis was the latest to join the Springbok casualty list and the replacement hooker may not recover in time to take any part in this tournament. Fiji have been rocked by the news that fly-half Nicky Little will miss any remaining games in the World Cup with knee ligament injury so either veteran Fijian centre Seremaia Bai or 22-year-old Waisea Luveniyali will take over at number ten. Fiji have played really well in this tournament but a win here would be the biggest shock of the World Cup so far and whilst they may well get close, they shouldn't be good enough to win. The thirty-odd point headstart given by the layers to the Fijians looks about right, so I can't really recommend a bet here. Verdict: South Africa by 30.
ARGENTINA v SCOTLAND (Saint-Denis - Sunday, 20.00) Argentina's relatively facile victory against Ireland last weekend was another piece of evidence that the Pumas are still the most under-rated side in world rugby and those fans who booed the England side off the pitch at Twickenham last autumn may want to rethink their initial thoughts. They are certainly a side on top of their game at the moment and it just so happens that their players are all probably peaking at the right time. Argentinean rugby knows that a semi-final spot will strengthen their case to join one of the Tri-Nations or Six Nations tournaments so they will be acutely aware of the significance of this game on Sunday evening. Scotland qualified for the semi-finals courtesy of a cracking kicking performance from Chris Paterson who led his side to victory against Italy in a rain-sodden encounter. I thought Italy were slightly unlucky in that game as I reckon if you switched the kickers, you switch the result as young Marco Bortalussi seemed to choke at some of the more important kicks. The Pumas have already been talking about how to keep Paterson at bay but the only way they can do that is by being disciplined and not giving him chances to kick penalties. If they manage to do this, then they should have no problems in seeing off the Scots as they don't have the attacking options that the Pumas do. Marcelo Loffreda has delayed naming his side but there shouldn't be many changes - though Felipe Contepomi has been struggling with 'flu this week. Frank Hadden too has yet to name his side but Scotland have no major injury worries. This is another tough one to call. I think Argentina are a great side at the moment and they certainly have the measure of Scotland but Paterson's ability to slot one between the posts from anywhere is Wilkinson-esque and can keep the Scots in the game even if they're under the cosh. The handicap of around fourteen looks about right for this game and I'm even slightly tempted to go with the Scots at that line. However, with the Pumas in such good form and the Scots away from Murrayfield, I wouldn't be surprised if Argentina performed like they did against the Irish. Verdict: Argentina by 15.
By Bettingzone.co.uk Used with permission. |
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