It’s reasonable to suggest that, with the top two having finished a massive 26 points clear of the chasing pack, and the next four teams separated by only six, the two pools are going to be equally competitive.  The structure is the same as in the Heineken Cup, and as has been seen in the race for quarter-final places in that competition over the years, bonus points will have a huge bearing on the final positions, and any win on the road is going to be priceless.  We’ve been playing for bonus points for 10 years now, but in a league of 12, 14 or 16 teams there are certain fixtures from which five points is the minimum expected return, and others in which a losing bonus point might be deemed an acceptable result.  To put that into context, four of the five try bonuses we’ve collected this season have been gained against teams now facing the relegation play-offs, whereas the four losing bonuses were gathered away to the other four teams in the top five.

Now, however, the minimum objective must be to collect a losing bonus point away from home and to deny any visitors the same benefit – and a try bonus at home would be an added windfall.  It’s a different mindset for many players and coaches, but some – most of the Bristol squad, of course, plus the likes of Gordon Ross, Phil Greening and Doncaster’s Lyn Howells – have first-hand experience of Europe’s élite competition, and they will no doubt be highlighting the potential costs and benefits of every decision made over the next six matches.  That sounds like it could make for low-risk, no-frills rugby, but to-date the Championship has seen a try-bonus point scored on average every other game (66 in 132 fixtures): it’s been an entertaining alternative to the sterility of the Premiership where defence - rather than attack - seemingly wins matches.

Welsh’s record against our pool opponents is 50:50 – three wins, three defeats, 82 points for and 90 against.  Strangely, we lost the first encounter with each team, including our first home defeat of the season at the hands of Doncaster, but won all three return fixtures.  The Halloween horror show against the Knights was a shock, not just because we failed to collect even a losing bonus point for the first time, but because Donny had returned empty-handed from their first five games and were down in 11^th place.  They’d spent three weeks at the foot of the table, once we’d wiped-out the five point penalty with a win over Bees, who had themselves picked-up an unexpected bonus point at home to Bristol in week two.  But having gained a first point in defeat at home to Coventry in week six, the Knights reeled-off four straight wins, beating Plymouth, Bristol, Welsh and Bees, yet at the halfway stage they were still 11^th, albeit on 19 points, just one behind Coventry, Plymouth and Rotherham.

They weren’t helped by the big freeze, which saw them go a full month without a fixture, and consequently have to play five times in 17 days in February.  Incredibly, they collected four wins in a fortnight before hitting the wall at Bristol, but by then they’d overhauled Plymouth and Moseley to reach the dizzy heights of 7^th – still, you suspect, behind where the Castle Park faithful expected their team to stand, following 3^rd, 4^th and 5^th place finishes over the last three years, but a phenomenal improvement over the second half of the year.  Last weekend saw Donny go down 13-20 at home to Plymouth, a result which saw both teams qualify for the promotion play-offs at the expense of Moseley, whose 30-25 win over Bristol was ultimately in vain.

Over the second half of the season, Bristol collected 49 points from a possible 55, while Exeter – who had collected 49 points in the first 11 games – gained 39, with Welsh only a single point behind. The other five teams in the top eight were separated by just two points, with Bedford, Pirates and Donny collecting 29 apiece, Plymouth 28, and Nottingham 27.  The question now is who has the momentum going into the next phase?  Some have suggested that Donny have simply run out of steam after the exertions of last month, but a glance over their season as a whole shows that their ten wins have included two runs of four victories punctuating extended runs of defeats.  On the other hand, they also have the distraction of the B&I Cup, having qualified for the semi-finals with a maximum return of 25 points from their five pool matches.  Nottingham have won only two of their last six, and in the second half registered only five wins, all against teams in the bottom half, yet they still finished fourth overall.

Welsh - under Danny and Phil’s guidance, which has been rightly praised in some sections of the media - have refused to be side-tracked by countless off-field rumours (and the occasional fact!), and we’re being mentioned on some sites as a potential dark-horse.  After the lacklustre performance against Llanelli a fortnight ago some supporters dared to hint that our season was going to slowly peter-out, but last Saturday’s stunning comeback at Penzance put paid to that.  As for Exeter, their Chairman’s hissy-fit over the redistribution of gate receipts for the semi-finals has caused many observers to suggest that they’re getting a bit too confident/ cocksure/ arrogant (delete as applicable), but anyone who has watched the Baxter brothers over the last ten years or so knows that they won’t be taking a backward step in pursuit of the ultimate goal.  Seconds out, round two…

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