Two days after Christmas we travel to Headingley for our next Premiership game.  However, before that we have a less important game at Leeds this Friday, but nonetheless a Powergen Cup encounter we must be looking to win because victory could set us up for a semi-final at the Millenium Stadium in March.

The simple facts in our group are as follows (Llanelli meet Sale at Stradey Park in the other match):

If Llanelli win or draw with a BP, Llanelli go through.

If we win AND Llanelli lose, we go through.

If we win with a BP AND Llanelli lose OR draw without a BP, we go through.

We draw without a BP we are out.

We draw with a BP AND Sale win without a BP, we go through.

Sale win they need Leeds to win and to get at least one group point more than Llanelli on Friday to go through.

Those are the ones off the top of my head, feel free to insert your own extras.

(Mark’s note – Simple??!!!!)

The one certainty in Group 3 is that Leeds, bottom of the table without a point, cannot qualify for the last four having lost 28-7 to Llanelli and 45-10 at Sale in October.  Therefore one wonders what kind of side we will face at Headingley, a stadium in which we have never lost to Leeds in six visits (five wins and a draw).

Certainly, an under-strength opposition would help us as while Leeds might not boast the number of internationals that many clubs can, they did pull off two transfer coups in the summer by signing All Black Justin Marshall and Scotland’s Gordon Bulloch, to go alongside World Cup winner Iain Balshaw and former Falcons Tim Stimpson, Jon Dunbar and James Isaacson.  The club captain is Tom Palmer.

Leeds also prop up the Premiership table of course, replacing us at the bottom having clawed their way up to 11^th for 48 hours at the weekend.  Having defeated Northampton, the Tykes pulled off a shock 12-16 win at Bath against the odds on Friday, and so come into this meeting on the back of two excellent results.

However, we will not be short on confidence having beaten the Champions on Sunday for our first home Premiership win, and with a good record against Leeds, there is no reason we can’t make it to Cardiff if other results go our way, especially with Jamie Noon and Mark Mayerhofler back together in the centres and showing good form at the weekend.  Scrum-half is a worry with Lee Dickson and Hall Charlton out, and the forwards will have to reproduce the type of fire they did against Wasps, however I would be surprised if we were defeated on Friday.

That said, a bonus point may end up being necessary and even if we get it, Llanelli’s position as the top Welsh team (and not having lost at home since the opening weekend of the season to Edinburgh) in the Celtic League means Sale will have their work cut out too.

I’m still not a fan of this Cup, but at least the action’s going on until the end.

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