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129ml of the Guinness Premiership
By Mich
November 5 2008
Five matches into this year's Guinness Premiership, but how are the teams really performing, who is improving and who is falling back? With the help of a wealth of statistics, I'll try to find some answers. Bath top the table after the first five rounds by the virtue of the bonus points they have picked up to pull away from fellow '4 winners' Sale and Leicester.

Bristol have started slowly and are the only team without a win, while the pre-season favourites for Newcastle have two wins keeping them in 8th. Wasps poor start to the season sees them languishing down in 10th.

http://i392.photobucket.com/albums/pp1/mjsonline/2008R5.jpg
What does this table show?
This is the current league table. The colour coding shows if a team is out performing last season, compared to the league table above.
Why do I care?
The colour coding helps to put this season's table in context, you can judge how a team is performing compared to last year.
What about Leeds/Northampton?
Northampton have taken over from Leeds and so their 2007-08 results are used to calculate Northampton's position. The games versus Northampton are likely to yield significant movements.


Clubs were heavily disrupted by the World Cup at the start of last season but Gloucester managed to keep their cool and remain unbeaten. The two clubs supplying England with the most players Leicester and Wasps clearly felt the pressure on their squads with Leicester down in 6th and Wasps in 9th. Worcester picked up losing bonus points to keep them in touch with Leeds.
http://i392.photobucket.com/albums/pp1/mjsonline/2007R5.jpg
This doesn't look like the table from the start of last season.
Quite right, it isn't. This table shows the results from last season for the match combinations that have been played so far this year.
Why do I care?
It helps to put this season's table in context, you can judge how a team is performing compared to last year.


Wasps are often quoted as being a team that has a slow start to the season, and while they certainly peak during the second half of the season, last year's poor start could be put down to missing world cup players; this year there are no such excuses. In the same five games they played this year and only won one, they won every one last year. Sale have improved by winning an additional game compared to last year and are looking like an early threat. Newcastle's good start to the season is put in context by their three wins in the same fixtures last year, but still better than many pundits had predicted. Northampton are proving to be stronger competition than Leeds and may well cause some havoc for the year on year table.

http://i392.photobucket.com/albums/pp1/mjsonline/2007A5.jpg
This looks familiar.
Quite right, for a change this is the actual league table from the start of last season up to Round 5.


If all of the remaining results were to go as they did last season Gloucester would still top the table courtesy of their superior bonus point accumulation. London Irish have had a very strong start to the season and would take the second home semi-final place. Sale join Bath in the play offs while Leicester drop down to 5th and Wasps fall dramatically to 8th. Northampton would be the side relegated but being the new side their results are most likely to change. One interesting observation when thinking about ELVs and Protocols is that the number of Try Bonus points is down...

http://i392.photobucket.com/albums/pp1/mjsonline/rollseasonr5.jpg
What does this table show?
This table includes the results from the last match combination for each team to form a rolling league table.
For example the table shows Leicester v Gloucester from 2007-08, but Gloucester v Leicester from 2008-09 because that match has been played.


*Bonus points are available for anyone who can decode the title...

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129ml of the Guinness Premiership
Posted by: TheLeicesterTigers.co.uk (IP Logged)
Date: 05/11/2008 11:10

129ml of the Guinness Premiership

Re: 129ml of the Guinness Premiership
Posted by: TigerChick (IP Logged)
Date: 05/11/2008 11:12

Re: 129ml of the Guinness Premiership (Match Stats, Courtesy of Mich)
Posted by: andrew pickard
Date: 05 November, 2008 11:06


I claim the bonus point - 5/22nds of a pint.





(Sorry, decided to re-post the story after I mucked it up the first time). Andrew's post copied from a now-deleted thread.

Will update the site with news stories and reports. Supporting the Tigers fans community
Email me via tigerchick "at" ymail "dot" com (No spam!)




Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2008:11:05:11:14:01 by TigerChick.

Re: 129ml of the Guinness Premiership
Posted by: Mich (IP Logged)
Date: 05/11/2008 22:14

We have a winner - i'll work on a more cryptic title for the next instalment!

Re: 129ml of the Guinness Premiership
Posted by: Stopsy (IP Logged)
Date: 06/11/2008 03:18

Thanks Mich

Can you do an update after the next 10 games please.

Re: 129ml of the Guinness Premiership
Posted by: odd-shaped vagaries (IP Logged)
Date: 06/11/2008 12:38

An interesting piece - thanks Mich. Let's hope the reality on the park sees us do better.

Please do update it as Stopsy says, but can you introduce a performance, entertainment & richness value quotient [or 'perv']? Too often results come at the expense of entertainment, currently, but if you can incorporate such a censure perhaps Guinness will be able to do the same with actual bonus points in the league ... it could see the end of the elvs?

I claim my free quart in a flagon.

..........................................................

100,000 lemmings cannot be wrong!

Wistfully, porcine aviation; positively Fourth Street.

Re: 129ml of the Guinness Premiership
Posted by: Mich (IP Logged)
Date: 06/11/2008 20:15

I'll endeavour to do updates on the message boards after each round and try to do a decent article style round up every so often.

I like the idea or a perv quotient - I'll work on a few things winking smiley

I've also got another statistical treat waiting in the wings, but that can probably wait until the end of the season...

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