Going one better?
We saw the beginning of this last year: referees penalising defenders, space opening up, off-side lines being more strictly policed, and ambition being rewarded. Marching in the vanguard of this drive towards sporting glasnost, as ever, are the All Blacks. Smiting all before them in the current Tri-Nations competition, they are a beacon, a call to arms, a message of hope for a previously beleaguered sport. Follow their lead and, the message goes, rugby glory awaits.
I will try to remember this in the middle of January when the rain is teeming down, the ground is a squelching, muddy mess, and the scores are locked at 3-3 with just five minutes left on the clock. “Think of the All Blacks,” I'll be willing Mark van Gisbergen, Jack Wallace, or whichever hapless back finds himself fielding a length of the pitch howitzer just in front of his own posts. “Show some ambition. Run it.”
Or maybe not. Because rugby in 2010/11, despite the welcome interpretive nudge in favour of the attacking teams, will remain a game of pragmatism. Sure, there will be more incentive to run the ball, or at least less of a disincentive than there was last season. Bath, in the St George's Day game at Twickenham, and Saracens and Leicester in the Premiership final, showed that ambition, pace, and an attack-minded game-plan can bring great rewards. But who were the two most pragmatic teams in the league last year? It's no coincidence that Sarries and Tigers contested the final. Leicester, in particular, were the very model of pragmatic rugby in the early part of the season. Depleted by injury, largely unable to score tries, they fielded a bulldozer pack and a place-kicking fly-half and they kept themselves in contention.
So yes, a good, hard-running, intelligent set of backs will get you a long way in the coming season, but as always a big, uncompromising pack and a solid, aggressive defence will be the key attributes to get you through an English winter. So how do the combatants line up?
Leicester start as virtually everyone's favourites, and having seen how they signed off last term this is perfectly understandable. They have all the attributes, a team for all seasons, and the strongest scrum in the business. Last season seemed to see a resurgence in the importance of this facet of play – not as much as Brian Moore might like, perhaps, but certainly more than was comfortable for the likes of Robbie Deans. Our own game against the Tigers at Welford Road foundered on Romain Poite's no-nonsense policing of the set-scrum. We weren't the only team to suffer in that way. With a solid pack up front and England duo Toby Flood and Ben Youngs orchestrating things behind, it's almost impossible to imagine that Tigers will finish outside the top four come May.
It will be intriguing to see how Saracens do this year. Was last season a flash-in-the-pan, another 1998, or will they now kick on and become serial contenders for the Premiership title? Before their transformation from fourteen-defenders-and-a-kicker in the second half of last season, they seemed like a team making the best of a limited squad, certain to be found out when the crunch came. But they managed the transition to attacking dervishes so seamlessly, and with such aplomb, that not until Dan Hipkiss danced through to score a try three minutes from the end of the Premiership final did the Sarries train finally come off the rails. Actually, that's unfair, because it didn't come off at all. Saracens could easily have won that game. And it wouldn't have been surprising had they done so, because the semi-final against Northampton at Franklins Gardens had already announced them as a team not only wholly unrecognisable from the one kicking its way through matches in the early part of the season, but one that was getting better and better in its new, attacking guise. This season, influential full-back Alex Goode will be stepping up to the role of fly-half, hoping to fill the boots of the departed Glenn Jackson. Kelly Brown could well turn out to be the signing of the season. And Sarries will be hoping that Schalk Brits proves as influential in his second season as he was in his first.
For Northampton, last season was something of a curate's egg. One of the few teams to buck the negative trend at the start of the season, they looked all through the year as though they were travelling on a first-class ticket to the Premiership final. Chris Ashton was scoring tries for fun, Ben Foden was terrorising defences with his counter-attacking, Juandre Kruger was playing himself into a Super 15 contract in the second row, Phil Dowson was bringing intelligence and know-how to the back row, and above it all Jim Mallinder and Dorian West were cementing their reputation as one of the best coaching partnerships in English rugby. But then came that semi-final against Saracens. Many will argue that, in just their second season back in the Premiership, to make the play-off semi-finals, the Heineken Cup knock-out stages, and to win the Anglo-Welsh Cup, represented something of an over-achievement for Northampton. Surely they were ahead of schedule, and the season had been a triumph? But this ignores the fact that they were playing the sort of rugby that ought to have seen them contesting the trophy at Twickenham on May 29th. They finished second to Leicester in the league by only two points. They had a home semi-final. Everything seemed to be in their favour. That they lost this crucial match doesn't negate the achievements of the season, but it surely left a slightly bitter, what-might-have-been taste in the mouth.
This season will be a test of Mallinder and West. Kruger has gone, as has Ignacio Fernandez-Lobbe. England call-ups will intrude much more than last year. A number of good, young, but unseasoned players have to be melded into the squad. Some previews have called into the question the quality of Saints' half-backs, Myler and Dickson (not forgetting Shane Geraghty), but to me they are one of the more solid partnerships in the league. The bigger worry comes in the front row where Euan Murray will once again be absent for Sunday matches and the quality of back-up is (to these eyes) largely unproven. If they achieve the same as last year, I suspect that Saints will be happy. With the quality of the leavers and the number of new faces, consolidation may be the name of the game.
If any team in the league will be licking their lips at the prospect of a whole season played under the new interpretations, it is Bath. The second half of last season saw them galloping up the league table, winning eleven of their twelve GP matches after Christmas (losing only to Leicester) and scoring thirty-seven tries in the process. They forced their way into the top four, only succumbing to Leicester, again, in a curiously tryless semi-final. There is no doubting Bath's quality behind the scrum. The likes of Abendanon and Banahan relish the wide-open spaces. Claassens and James are quality half-backs and Barkley, although apparently not good enough for England, is a vital cog in the Bath midfield. Were the Premiership, as some might wish, merely a test of attacking aptitude and try-count, not many would bet against Bath to figure in the coming season's Twickenham finale. But those two results against Leicester, particularly the 43-20 drubbing in April, must give us pause. There is more to rugby than running the ball. Bath's front five might be more than adequate for most of what the Premiership can throw at them, but is it quite good enough to secure them a title? They are not short of experience. David Barnes, David Flatman, Duncan Bell and Danny Grewcock seem to have been around forever. They have bolstered the pack with the likes of Simon Taylor and (perhaps more significantly) Lewis Moody. They will secure plenty of ball. Another ex-Tiger, Sam Vesty, will give them much needed composure at fly-half when James is absent. On paper, Bath seem to have everything required to challenge for silverware. Whether they can do so remains to be seen.
Gloucester and London Irish had disappointing seasons last year. After appearing in the 2009 Premiership final, Toby Booth would have been expecting a similar level of achievement in 2009/10. For some reason it didn't materialise. Like Wasps, Irish lost silly matches that they would have expected to win – the home defeats to Newcastle and Leeds in particular (as well as the defeats to Llanelli in the Heineken Cup). They tasted victory in just one of their final five Premiership matches and the season went out with a very definite but very feeble whimper. While the squad is not noticeably stronger this season, Irish will be hoping for better luck with injuries. They will also be hoping that Delon Armitage, a revelation for England during his first season in the national set-up, has a belated return to form. In Delon's brother Steffon, Irish possess one of the most dynamic opensides in the competition, but this is not a team of superstars. Creating a team that is more than the sum of its parts is key to Irish's chances of success. Toby Booth has done it before – the question is whether he can do it again.
Having parted company with Dean Ryan shortly before the start of last season, Gloucester promptly went and demonstrated the wisdom of the move by finishing one place lower and missing out on Heineken Cup qualification. Perhaps it was unfair on Bryan Redpath to expect anything more, even with the late season input of Ian McGeechan. Lacking a hard enough edge up front and with some quite awful performances in defence, Gloucester found themselves all too often with too much of a mountain to climb, even given the talent at their disposal. What the Cherry and Whites will have gained from last season, however, was the chance to give vital Premiership experience to some of their young players. Freddie Burns and Charlie Sharples in particular will be all the better for the experience, particularly if Burns is asked to move up to fly-half this season. The presence of known quantities like James Simpson-Daniel, Luke Narraway, Mike Tindall, Olly Morgan and Alex Brown suggest that Gloucester have underachieved quite significantly in the last couple of seasons. Add in up and coming lock Dave Attwood, fly-half Nicky Robinson, summer signing Jim Hamilton and all the rest, and Redpath's job becomes similar to that of Booth at Irish – creating a winning mentality. Don't say it too loud, but Gloucester could do something this year.
For Newcastle, Sale and Leeds, 2010/11 will probably be about consolidation. At Sale, Mike Brewer takes over from Jason Robinson in the task of putting back together a squad left in something of a mess by Philippe St Andre when he left. Naming James Gaskell as club captain is a statement of future intent reminiscent of Wasps' appointment of Lawrence Dallaglio in the aftermath of the defections to Newcastle all those years ago. In Charlie Hodgson Sale have possibly the most gifted fly-half in the league – his partnership with Dwayne Peel at scrum-half will be key. The returning Andrew Sheridan should be a fillip for the whole team.
Newcastle parted company with Steve Bates for a second time in the wake of last year's ninth place finish; more significantly, they have also parted company with Carl Hayman. Given the players that have graced Kingston Park over the years, it is slightly strange to look over the current Newcastle squad and see so many unfamiliar names. Much will be asked of players like Jon Golding, Jimmy Gopperth and Mickey Young this season if Newcastle are even to tread water. Much will also be asked of Alan Tait and Co in the coaching positions. Nevertheless, a trip up to the wilds of the north east will inevitably be a difficult one, as ever.
Leeds were most pundits' favourites for the trapdoor at the beginning of the last season, so the fact that they are still in the Premiership at all must seem like a triumph. But their survival was built on firmer foundations than simple luck, as Wasps know all too well. Well-drilled at the set-piece, confident and consistent in their game-plan, crucially able to apply that game-plan whatever the weather (unlike some!), they adjusted quickly to the demands of the Premiership and thereafter flourished. Away wins against Wasps and London Irish were taken very much in their stride. Neil Back and co will be looking to build on those foundations this year, and you wouldn't put it past them. I certainly don't expect them to feature in any relegation scraps this time around.
Which brings us to Exeter Chiefs. Promoted from the Championship after a tortuous series of play-offs at the end of last season, their elevation to the top-flight wasn't confirmed until the very last game of the season. This, along with Premier Rugby's rather invidious formula for distributing money to its constituent clubs, has inevitably meant that Exeter are favourites for the drop in May. Having seen what Leeds achieved last season, however, head coach Rob Baxter and his staff have cause for optimism. While there are inevitably no star names on view in the Exeter ranks, there are a few players with Premiership experience which could prove crucial: Luke Arscott, formerly of Bristol, ex-Northampton prop Chris Budgen, Ryan Davis from Bath, wings Mark Foster and Andrew Higgins. However the season goes, Exeter will be relishing it, and Sandy Park will be abuzz for the match with Gloucester this weekend. I can't wait to get down there myself.
Finally, we have Harlequins and Wasps, who meet in the double-header at Twickenham this Saturday. Fittingly, the last act (surely) of Bloodgate was played out this week, with the GMC's hearing on Doctor Wendy Chapman. Quins will be hoping that it really is the last word on an event that took place well over a year ago. It is difficult to believe that the events of that game against Leinster and its aftermath didn't cast a pall over last season for Quins. An eighth place finish in the league was disappointing given their progress up to Dean Richards' departure, but perhaps not surprising under the circumstances. This season, their first full one under new Director of Rugby Connor O'Shea, they will be looking for a major improvement. New England back rower Chris Robshaw has been named as captain and the squad boasts a quality that will surely see them competing for the top six. Nick Evans and Danny Care will give direction from half-back, dependable number eight Nick Easter will give direction full-stop, and some exciting backs will look to exploit the new interpretations. George Lowe in particular looks an excellent prospect. As far as the double-header goes, they will be keen to keep fifteen players on the park this time around.
For Wasps, the biggest news story of the summer was, inevitably, the break-up of Danny Cipriani and Kelly Brook. Or was it Danny's conversion to the round-ball game? I forget. All I know is, Andy Powell could have arrived at Acton in a day-glo pink golf buggy with Gavin Henson as his caddy and a scantily clad Katherine Jenkins as ball-girl and it wouldn't have attracted the column inches our ex-fly-half did during the doldrums of the off-season. That's not Danny's fault at all, but it will be nice to see our players featuring in the press for what they do on the pitch this season. The question is, what will they do on the pitch? I'm cautiously optimistic. While the losses of Cipriani and George Skivington are to be regretted, and it's not certain that the gap at ten has been adequately plugged, with a fully fit squad, I believe Wasps can seriously challenge for the top four this season. Last year we missed out because of our results against the teams that finished below us, not because of our results against the four teams who ultimately finished above us. Leeds at home, Newcastle at home – two wins here and we'd have finished in the play-off places. There have been plenty of new arrivals. James Cannon is a direct replacement for Skivs at lock. Nic Berry joins us from Racing Metro to shore up our scrum-half options. The aforementioned Andy Powell gives us another option in the back row and enables the deployment of Ward-Smith into the second row if required. Riki Flutey returns to the club after an unhappy year in France. Having half our front row and our club captain back from long injury lay-offs will be like signing new players. If we can adapt to the conditions out on the pitch, which we failed to do at times last season, then I see no reason why we can't go one better.
Starting at Twickenham this Saturday, with any luck. Allez Wasps.
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