Foregone conclusion ?
By Griff
April 1 2009
Saturday sees Guinness Premiership whipping-boys, Bristol, visit the Madejski to face the back-on-track London Irish at the re-instated fortress. Bristol are clinging to the base of the table with only hope between them and the drop. Irish are hoping their gloom is over and the St Patrick's win over Northampton was the start of a run that will see them safely into the play-offs.
April 1 2009
Saturday sees Guinness Premiership whipping-boys, Bristol, visit the Madejski to face the back-on-track London Irish at the re-instated fortress. Bristol are clinging to the base of the table with only hope between them and the drop. Irish are hoping their gloom is over and the St Patrick's win over Northampton was the start of a run that will see them safely into the play-offs.
It's patently obvious that Irish will cruise past the bottom-of-the-table outfit easily. In their 19 GP matches to date Bris have managed just 257 points and 28 tries, Irish are 2nd-highest points scorers in the league with 464 and joint-top try scorers with 52. So, there's the headline, Irish will slam the lowly club consigning them officially to relegation.
Except.
As Irish supporters well know, a team with only hope and their own performance between survival and oblivion can pull-off some impressive results. London Irish were perpetual table-proppers not such a long time ago and, when it came to the crunch took some biig scalps. Indeed, the last time Bristol were relegated (ironically in the final game of the season against London Irish) Irish were right there with them and only a unique win at Welford Road in the Irish run-in gave them breathing-space and kept the men-in-green in the league.
The Exiles are far more used to being the giant-killers and the role of "giant" is a bit of a novelty. Couple with that the fact that 6 of the West Country tries this season were scored last week and you have a real banana-skin. The term must-win is over-used in sport but for Bristol a loss in Reading means their season is over and they'll spend next season (barring bizarre end-of-season shenanigans) in ND1.
The must-win-ness of the tie for Irish is much less. Without 4 points Irish will struggle to make the play-offs - it would make the fixture at Franklin's Gardens a "must-win" - but that's all. It will require real clinical thinking from the home-side to focus on the win and break the visitors' hearts and that's not a trait LI have been associated with often.
Bristol's change of pace last week was marked. Earlier in the season under well-respected Richard Hill they produced occasional broken patches of class but lost-the-plot too often to make them hurt anyone. Against Worcester last Sunday and with Hill gone, London Irish old-boy Paul Hull got a real performace from the Bristol side. Their league position may mask the fact that in many positions they have very good players. They have a decent pack who can execute a set-piece on their day and a backline which can be excellent. Tom Arscott is a definite star in-the-making and David Lemi is, frankly, terrifying.
If the blue and whites keep their form from Sunday they will make Irish very uncomfortable. Over the 6 Nation period Irish's young tyros have showed great skill but the previously masonry-like defence has been a tad porous allowing a number of soft tries while the youngsters have covered the injuries and internationals. Without a solid green line the home side will need to go toe-to-toe with the free-scoring of the visitors and that could be both thrilling and scary in equal measure.
Many will be hoping for an end-to-end try-fest but it really isn't in the Exiles' interest to do this. We need to hold Bristol, frustrate them, capitalise on any mistakes and impose our authority from the offset - much the same way we've managed for most of the season so far. Bristol's only hope is to score freely and often, if they spend 20-30 mins and the score is still 0 - 0 it would be a stern Bristolian indeed not to get a bit panicky.
Except.
As Irish supporters well know, a team with only hope and their own performance between survival and oblivion can pull-off some impressive results. London Irish were perpetual table-proppers not such a long time ago and, when it came to the crunch took some biig scalps. Indeed, the last time Bristol were relegated (ironically in the final game of the season against London Irish) Irish were right there with them and only a unique win at Welford Road in the Irish run-in gave them breathing-space and kept the men-in-green in the league.
The Exiles are far more used to being the giant-killers and the role of "giant" is a bit of a novelty. Couple with that the fact that 6 of the West Country tries this season were scored last week and you have a real banana-skin. The term must-win is over-used in sport but for Bristol a loss in Reading means their season is over and they'll spend next season (barring bizarre end-of-season shenanigans) in ND1.
The must-win-ness of the tie for Irish is much less. Without 4 points Irish will struggle to make the play-offs - it would make the fixture at Franklin's Gardens a "must-win" - but that's all. It will require real clinical thinking from the home-side to focus on the win and break the visitors' hearts and that's not a trait LI have been associated with often.
Bristol's change of pace last week was marked. Earlier in the season under well-respected Richard Hill they produced occasional broken patches of class but lost-the-plot too often to make them hurt anyone. Against Worcester last Sunday and with Hill gone, London Irish old-boy Paul Hull got a real performace from the Bristol side. Their league position may mask the fact that in many positions they have very good players. They have a decent pack who can execute a set-piece on their day and a backline which can be excellent. Tom Arscott is a definite star in-the-making and David Lemi is, frankly, terrifying.
If the blue and whites keep their form from Sunday they will make Irish very uncomfortable. Over the 6 Nation period Irish's young tyros have showed great skill but the previously masonry-like defence has been a tad porous allowing a number of soft tries while the youngsters have covered the injuries and internationals. Without a solid green line the home side will need to go toe-to-toe with the free-scoring of the visitors and that could be both thrilling and scary in equal measure.
Many will be hoping for an end-to-end try-fest but it really isn't in the Exiles' interest to do this. We need to hold Bristol, frustrate them, capitalise on any mistakes and impose our authority from the offset - much the same way we've managed for most of the season so far. Bristol's only hope is to score freely and often, if they spend 20-30 mins and the score is still 0 - 0 it would be a stern Bristolian indeed not to get a bit panicky.
So, not a foregone conclusion, a match that is London Irish's to lose, certainly and one that Bristol will have to approach with the same attitude as their win over Worcester. Anything is possible, we know that, my head says Irish with ease but all those years supporting the underdog leaves my heart thinking Bris may just do it.
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StumbleuponForegone conclusion ?
Posted by: The Craic www.londonirish.org (IP Logged)
Date: 01/04/2009 22:56
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Re: Foregone conclusion ?
Posted by: MadMonk (IP Logged)
Date: 02/04/2009 04:00
Spot on. I watched a recording of their match against worcester. They looked an in-form side that have been liberated from the inhibitions of their league position. We only beat them earlier in the season courtesy of Shane's intercept try. They will not have forgotten that, or that we sent them down a few seasons ago. A cornered beast is a dangerous one. I don't like the fact that they need the win more than us. I felt that was an element of our loss to Wasps a few weeks ago.Re: Foregone conclusion ?
Posted by: Eek_the_Weeble (IP Logged)
Date: 02/04/2009 06:13
What a cracin' pre-match report young man.
Summed up all my fears. No nails left and still several days before kick off.
Summed up all my fears. No nails left and still several days before kick off.
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