Whither Rugby?

Over the next few weeks I’ll be publishing a series of articles based on my analysis of Zurich Premiership crowd numbers in the professional era.

We will look at each club in some detail. However, before the first article is published I feel it is important to understand the rationale behind the figures. This I have covered in some detail in a separate article The Figures Explained.

Room for Growth?

If there is one thing that screams out at me from these figures it is that (lack of) ground capacity is the biggest problem facing our sport today. The problem is most acute at Bath, but also is an issue at Gloucester, Harlequins, Leicester and Northampton. All of these clubs have recently expanded the capacity of their grounds. In every case this added capacity has been quickly swallowed up.

Sell-out crowds are no bad thing, but when, as in the case of Bath, you are turning customers away for almost all your home games you have to ask if it is viable to stay in your ground, no matter how attached to it you are, as a club. Had Bath the ground capacity to permit growth, it is arguable they would now have an average crowd of 15-20k rather than the 9.6k they have recorded in the 2003/4 season.

Some five years ago Rob Andrew chaired a commission looking at the future of professional club rugby in England. When they reported, one of the key recommendations was that the minimum ground capacity for a ZP team should be 10k. This was widely ridiculed at the time but with the benefit of hindsight appears to have been about right. One wonders what figure a similar commission would come up with today, especially if it looked five years into the future. I would hazard a figure somewhere close to 20k. Cue shouts of anguish from those clubs who, even if they had the money and their local councils allowed them to develop their grounds fully, could not meet this requirement, and would be forced to move.

The RFU and EPR are aware of this issue. In December 2003 they presented a paper to the government proposing that a rugby trust be set up to help fund ground development in the same way that a football trust was set up in the wake of the Hillsborough disaster. This appears to have fallen on deaf ears, perhaps because rugby simply doesn’t carry the political clout that soccer does. Given the seeming lack of progress of this initiative, the only viable option for several clubs appears to be ground-sharing at soccer stadia.  

The future looks bright – for some

Professional club rugby in England now appears to be growing steadily and healthily, although this has not always been the case. There were falls in average attendances in the two seasons following 97/98. The corner was turned in the 00/01 season, however, with the most significant growth being between that and the 01/02 season. Given that the 00/01 season was a Rugby World Cup one I do wonder if that had a part to play in the turnaround. Whilst things do look good at present, we might be unwise to take continued growth for granted. On the other hand, the clubs and the sports administrators should take account of and plan for future growth. Failure to do so would be foolish to say the least.

There are in general more ups than downs in these figures. The greatest success story of them all is the growth that has been achieved by London Irish. By some way they top every comparison table, weighted and non-weighted, total percentage and absolute numbers.  In the 97/98 season their average gate was 3,718 the second lowest of the clubs surveyed, only just ahead of Sale on 3,618. Six seasons and two stadium moves later their average crowd is now 10,657, the third highest in the country in un-weighted comparisons, second in weighted ones. In the 2003/4 season they twice had crowds in excess of 20,000 and currently hold the record for the largest ever Zurich Premiership crowd of 20,840 against Bath on 21st March 2004.

It should however be noted that large crowd sizes do not necessarily relate to profitability. London Irish, whilst they own their old ground at Sunbury, play in the Madejski stadium at Reading. There are greater direct costs and reduced revenue opportunities as a result of tenancy rather than ownership, although these may be balanced by not having to service capital debt arising from ground-expansion or acquisition. London Irish are expected to report a slight profit for the first time in the professional era this season. In achieving this they are behind several other clubs, some with much smaller home crowds.  

Unquestionably, Leicester have been the Kings of English club rugby throughout the professional era. Since records began they have been comfortably ahead of all other English clubs. Their average gates are currently in excess of 16,000, well ahead of any rivals. They are however one of many clubs who face issues with ground size. Given how rapidly and consistently London Irish have expanded their supporter base over the years and the fact that with a 24k capacity at their Reading home they have plenty of room left for expansion it is this author’s conjecture that within three to five years Leicester will be knocked off the top spot, for the first time.

The club with perhaps the greatest area for concern is Saracens. They are the only one to record a drop in attendances during this period. Some of this can be attributed to crowds in the early part of this survey being somewhat inflated due to promotional giveaways, etc. Even here it is not all doom and gloom, as an average crowd of 7,241 puts them firmly mid-table when it comes to attendances, and they achieved a slight growth in numbers last season, attendances having fallen in each of the three years prior to that.

We will continue this series with a look at each club in some detail. This will start with the club who currently appear to have the toughest job on their hands; Saracens.

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