Forward Five Years

For a full explanation of the source of and rationale behind these figures please refer to The Figures Explained.

In this article we take the average growth that has been witnessed over the past seven years and project it forward another five. These are simple projections and will without question be wrong. There are factors such as ground moves, ticket pricing, stars joining and leaving clubs and performance on field that will have a radical impact on the figures for individual clubs, these cannot be factored in.

First we'll look at average overall crowds. I think most people looking at these figures would feel them to be plausible.

Season - Ave. Att.

Next we look at the club by club figures for each season.

2004/5 Projection

2005/6 Projection

2006/7 Projection

2007/8 Projection

2008/9 Projection

As I have stated in the first paragraph these figures are almost certainly wrong. Before dismissing them totally however I would ask that you consider last seasons figures had they been presented five years ago. Would supporters of Sale, Newcastle and London Irish have expected their crowds to double in that period?

We will continue the 'Whither Rugby?' series with a number of articles based on the issues which these statistics have thrown up. In the next article 'What's in a Crowd' we look at the importance of having high crowd numbers.

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