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GP Roadmap: Round 1
By Quaking Quin September 12 2007
Here we go again. Are Quins looking for a top 4 finish or is it another year of making survival a priority? Whatever Deano says he will have studied the fixture list closely and looked to see where the points are coming from. So here is your guide to the next 22 rounds of optimism and despair.

Forget all the player comings-and-goings the important thing is the results on the pitch – ignore the old mantra about performance being a good substitute for a win. Deano will say it’s tough at the top and Andy Friend has already admitted he is worried about the strength of the opposition. However, the objective for any Director of Rugby in the GP must be a top 4 finish. No excuses after Bristol have shown the way.

Deano will have sifted through the season’s fixtures to work out his ‘must win’ games and likely finishing position. So can he break with the Quins’ tradition of perennially finishing near the bottom of the league. Over the 10 years of the premiership Quins’ record, starting in 1997/98, is:

10th, 4th, 9th, 11th, 9th, 7th, 6th, 12th, Rel. & 7th

Or put another way, Quins have won more than 10 games in a season only once – and that was back in 98/98 when there were 14 teams in the league and the opposition included the likes of West Hartlepool, Bedford, London Scottish and Richmond.

So what has to be done to finish in the key positions in the GP:

  • The basic threshold is 11th place survival – 40 points (8 wins + 8 bonus points)
  • To reach HC qualification means 6th place – 52 points (11 wins + 8 bonus points)
  • To grab a play off slot means 4th place – 62 points (13 wins + 10 bonus points)
  • And for the dreamer, a 1st place finish – 74 points (16 wins + 10 bonus points)

Winning half the games in a season has proved impossible for Quins in the past over the normal 22 rounds.

So what has to be done? The table below shows where the points should come from (and the games Quins can afford to lose) to finish in either 11th, 6th, 4th or 1st place on a round by round basis. The probability of winning, and bonus points gained, is based on each team’s finishing positions in the GP last year:

Game Date 11th Place 6th place 4th Place 1st Place Actual Points & Predicted Finish
Points Total Points Total Points Total Points Total
1 Irish 02/09/06 h 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
2 Leeds 09/09/07 h 5 9 5 9 5 9 5 9
3 Falcons 17/09/06 a 1 10 1 10 4 13 4 13
4 Bristol 23/09/06 h 1 11 4 14 4 17 4 17
5 Bath 15/10/06 a 0 11 1 15 1 18 4 21
6 Wasps 04/11/06 h 4 15 4 19 4 22 4 25
7 Glaws 10/11/06 a 0 15 0 19 0 22 0 25
8 Sarries 17/11/06 h 1 16 4 23 4 26 4 29
9 Wuzz 24/11/06 a 1 17 4 27 4 30 5 34
10 Tigers 22/12/06 h 1 18 1 28 1 31 4 38
11 Sale 27/12/06 a 1 19 1 29 4 35 4 42
Halfway 19 29 35 42
12 Wuzz 01/01/07 h 5 24 5 34 5 40 5 47
13 Sarries 06/01/07 a 0 24 0 34 0 40 1 48
14 Glaws 27/01/07 h 0 24 0 34 1 41 4 52
15 Wasps 17/02/07 a 0 24 0 34 1 42 1 53
16 Bath 24/02/07 h 4 28 4 38 4 46 4 57
17 Bristol 03/03/07 a 0 28 0 38 0 46 1 58
18 Falcons 10/03/07 h 4 32 4 42 5 51 5 63
19 Leeds 17/03/07 a 4 36 4 46 5 56 5 68
20 Irish 07/04/07 a 0 36 1 47 1 57 1 69
21 Sale 15/04/07 h 4 40 5 52 5 62 5 74
22 Tigers 28/04/07 a 0 40 0 52 0 62 0 74
40 points Total 40 52 62 74

No problem – we start the season with a ‘must win’ game in the Double Header.

 

Good luck to Deano and the boys – we’ll be living every minute with you.

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