BRISTOL RUGBY vs NORTHAMPTON SAINTS

SUNDAY, 7th JANUARY 2007 - 3pm

MATCH PREVIEW

We are currently in 11th place with 19 points, 6 ahead of Worcester and 23 behind Bristol. Leicester are second, 1 point behind Bristol, but remember that Bristol effectively gave up their match at Leicester just before Christmas by putting out their second string.

Even the most ardent Bristol fan will probably admit to being more than slightly surprised at being top of the table half way through the season - when their main plan was to avoid a relegation dogfight and maybe aim for a mid-table finish.

Much of the Bristol team will be familiar from the four games we played against them last season - including that amazing late comeback at the Mem that clinched our Heineken Cup spot. However, Richard Hill did recruit wisely over the summer. Probably the main new face is Kiwi fly-half Dave Hill, who has pretty much taken over from the solid but unspectacular Jason Strange.

Other new faces in the squad are Kiwi centre Neil Brew, Welsh fullback Craig Morgan, Tongan fullback/centre Josh Taumalolo (having to play in the centres because Morgan is playing so well), Samoan back row Alfie To'oala (a real hard hitter) and Irishmen scrum-half Brian O'Riordan and hooker David Blaney (both ex-Leinster).

Brew is currently back in New Zealand as he can't play at the same time as Hill, but will be back during the 6 Nations when the rules are relaxed. O'Riordan will be at scrum half as Shaun Perry is out for a few weeks after injuring his ribs against Bath. Let's hope he's back before too long, as England will probably need him.

Speaking of England, all signs seem to point towards Bristol's No.8 Dan Ward-Smith making his first appearance for England in the 6 Nations. He's a big carrier of the ball, and someone our defence needs to watch out for. Also in the back row for Bristol, club captain Matt Salter came back against Bath after a shoulder dislocation, which gives them another boost.

The summer signings pretty much answered my main concerns about Bristol's backs and they are also starting to plan for the future in the pack,   given that the front row won't last for ever - even if it seems like they've been playing forever. Bristol have done well to have the three of them play for 1 1/2 Premiership seasons now without much by way of injury and have been giving prop Alex Clarke (just called up into the England Saxons squad) a few outings. The presence of David Blaney and Neil Clark (both injured at the moment) give some indication of life after Mark Regan.

Bristol have been very lucky since they were promoted, having what seems to be to be a very low number of injuries - especially compared to us. They are probably one of the best conditioned teams in the Premiership having started pre-season training very early, and Midi Olympique attributed their win over Worcester early in the season to the fact that they were able to keep going for the full 80 minutes. It might be interesting to see whether this has any downside later in the season.

I have seen come criticism of Bristol for not playing particularly attractive rugby, but personally I wouldn't really care about that sort of comment if my team was top of the league. Having said that, Bristol do have two of the top try scorers in the Premiership - wingers David Lemi and Lee Robinson have both touched down 6 times so the ball is obviously being pushed out wide every once in a while. Lemi and Robinson are a really contrasting pair - Lemi is small and elusive while Robinson is pretty much the opposite. I met him in Sainsbury's a few weeks ago, and he really is huge.

Bristol have the tightest defence in the league in terms of tries conceded, while we have the leakiest. They are also the least penalised team. Late in the game against Bath last week, they had only given up something like 3 penalties in the whole match - and one of those was Mark Regan being sin-binned for a late high tackle. Good discipline really helps tie down the opposition, preventing them from keeping the scoreboard ticking over with regular penalties.

Finally, I come to what is maybe the biggest different between Bristol and the Saints at the moment - Bristol are probably one of the best teams in the Premiership. Before anyone gets too excited about that statement, I mean that they have great team spirit, they are disciplined, and they play together and for each other - they are not just a group of 15 individuals who happen to wear the same colour shirt, and I'm worried that that is just what the Saints are becoming.

Richard Hill is a very astute coach who has built a very good side from a squad that on paper contains less talent than the Saints one. I suspect Bristolians are very happy that he signed another three year contract not too long ago, and I wouldn't be surprised if England one day break with apparent tradition and poach someone from Bristol rather than Bath.

As for the Saints, yes we have had a very bad time with injuries but there does seem to be something going badly wrong at the moment, with heavy defeats and recent games seeming pretty directionless. We have not been able to have consistent team selection and there is no denying we have missed the hugely important Jon Clarke and Bruce Reihana. This puts huge pressure and expectation on their returns and I really hope that the club doesn't rush them back too quickly (especially with Reihana having had ligament damage). We really don't want them to end up re-injured like poor Rhodri Davies, who came back too early to help out in the middle of the injury problems but is now out for the rest of the season, just like last year.

As both Mark Robinson and Ian Vass are missing through injury, Johnny Howard will get an outing at scrum half, which will be a bit of a novelty for him. The increasingly important David Gerard is also missing, although this is because he has the pox (of the chicken-variety) rather than injury.

I'm rubbish at predictions, as witnessed by my position in Lou's Lottery, so I'm not really going to try. At the start of the season you'd have said that this would be a match we would expect to win. Now, with it being 1st against 11th, form would have to favour Bristol.

But, you don't know what's going to happen with us at the moment - we unexpectedly beat Wasps and then lose to Worcester - so anything could happen, especially if the Saints forwards decide to let the backs see the ball. Otherwise it will be another forward based grunt-fest. I naturally hope the Saints win, but won't be surprised if the travelling fans go home disappointed. See you in the Wellington afterwards.

Also, let's hope Wasps do the business against Worcester - and it really hurts to say that.

Bristol Rugby:
Craig Morgan, Lee Robinson, Sam Cox, Josh Taumalolo, David Lemi, David Hill, Brian O'Riordan, Alex Clarke, Mark Regan, Darren Crompton, Roy Winters, Gareth Llewellyn, Alfie To'oala, Matt Salter (capt), Dan Ward-Smith

Replacements:
Saul Nelson, David Hilton, Nathan Budgett, Craig Short, Greg Nicholls, Jason Strange, Brian Lima

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