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How to gain that edge in rugby betting.
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By WellSaint
August 27 2002
What do you do on the way down to the Gardens of a Saturday? Personally I like a good meal washed down with a few beers, followed by a trip to the bookies on the way to the ground. There's money to be made - provided you get your predictions right, of course!
.
August 27 2002
What do you do on the way down to the Gardens of a Saturday? Personally I like a good meal washed down with a few beers, followed by a trip to the bookies on the way to the ground. There's money to be made - provided you get your predictions right, of course!
In this article, I will try to explain (as simply as possible!) the ways to give yourselves the best chance of coming out on top of the battle with Mr Hills, Mr Chandler, or whoever else you choose to bet with.
First, the basics.
Every week during the season, the major bookmakers issue a list of prices for the weekend's games. The prices are not usually available before Friday of the week concerned.
Here is an example of what the first week's price list could look like:
Sale Sharks (-4 points) 5/6 Northampton Saints (+4 points) 5/6 Draw 16/1
Leeds Tykes (+15 points) 5/6 Listeria Tigres (-15 points) 5/6 Draw 16/1
NEC Harlequins (+4 points) 5/6 Gloucester (-4 points) 5/6 Draw 16/1
Reading Irish (-8 points) 5/6 Bath (+8 points) 5/6 Draw 16/1
Newcastle Falcons (-3 points) 5/6 HW Wasps (+3 points) 5/6 Draw 16/1
Bristol Shoguns (-3 points) 5/6 Saracens (+3 points) 5/6 Draw 16/1
The first thing to note is that all teams have a bracket next to their name, with either plus or minus points. This is a handicap; i.e. how many points the bookmaker feels the team with the minus number (for example Gloucester) will beat the team with the positive number (Harlequins) by. Every bookmaker issues a different handicap list (for example, another bookmaker might have Sale at -6 and the Saints at +6 points.) You have to take this into account when deciding what side to back.
For the sake of illustration, let us assume in the Quins-Glos game that you think the final score will be NEC Harlequins 18 Gloucester 20. You would then back Harlequins, as they have a four point head start. Similarly, if you had a bet on the stripey cats from Wellbad Road, they would need to win by sixteen clear points or more for you to collect.
Unfortunately, some bookmakers (but not all) insist on a minimum of three selections (a treble), unless the game is live on TV when they will take singles. This means you have to be able to predict three out of the six games accurately. On some weekends, this is merely a challenging task; in most cases, it's downright impossible. Therefore:
Rule 1. Always bet with bookmakers who are prepared to offer singles on all games, not just the live TV game. As I mentioned earlier, different bookmakers issue different prices.
Let's focus in on the Quins-Glos match again.
Bookmaker A offers Quins +4 points at 5/6; Glos -4 points at 5/6; 16/1 Draw.
Bookmaker B offers Quins -2 points at 5/6; Glos +2 points at 5/6; 16/1 Draw.
This is a gilt edged opportunity for the punter, whether he fancies Quins or Gloucester. If he fancies Quins, he goes to Bookmaker A, who gives him a four point cushion. That means if Quins win, or lose by 3 points or less, he has a winning bet. If he fancies Gloucester, he goes to Bookmaker B, who gives him a two point start, which means if Glos win, draw, or lose by a single point, he wins.
This doesn't happen very often, but in tight games, I've seen odds similar to these.
Rule 2: Always look out for the gilt-edged opportunities when rival bookmakers cannot agree who is most likely to win a match.
You will note from the above examples that the normal price for any team to win is 5/6. This means if you place a six pound bet and are successful, you will win five pounds, plus your six pounds back - a total of eleven pounds. Obviously if you predict two results your winnings will be bigger - if you stake five pounds and predict two results correctly, you will get just under seventeen pounds back. Three results would return you nearly thirty-one pounds.
However, some bookmakers will offer you 10/11 instead of 5/6, and as this is a better price, these bookmakers should be favoured. If you are very lucky, you may find someone offering evens (and no, I'm not prepared to divulge that particular secret!)
Rule 3: Always bet with the bookmaker prepared to offer 10/11 instead of the stingier 5/6 - especially if you are predicting more than one result.
This form of betting is known as handicap betting, because you have to overcome the bookies' handicap to win (hence the plus or minus points against each team in the example price list above.) However, for some sports (for example American Football), the handicap is quoted as 3.5 points, or 7.5 points. This has the effect of making the draw an impossibility.
Let us once more take the example of the Quins vs Glos game, and the prices shown in the price list. If the final score was Harlequins 16 Gloucester 20, neither the Harlequins nor the Gloucester backers would get paid out. That is because the correct prediction is this case would be a draw (i.e. a four point win to Gloucester, in line with the bookmaker's prediction.)
In a tight game, not having the draw to worry about is very useful (especially if the handicap is three, and you think the game will go down to who shoots the most penalties.)
Rule 4: If you can find a bookmaker who prices the game in half-points, effectively taking the draw out the equation, use that bookmaker.
The bookmaker prices up many events each day; horse races, football matches, greyhound races etc. Their knowledge of horse racing and what's happening where, which horses are fancied, which horses are not, is legendary. Their knowledge of rugby union is not. They are less likely to know about team news, injuries and the like than we are. Knowledge is power.
Consider the Bristol vs Saracens game. Bristol's successes have been built around the 10-9 Argentine partnership. If Argentina were playing on that day, and both players had been called into the squad, it would lessen Bristol's chances of winning. You would probably have doubts as to whether Bristol would win, let alone by four clear points or more. This is a simple example. But by using the messageboards of COYSDC and other Premiership clubs, you could find out team news before the bookmakers. This gives you an edge, which you should use.
Rule 5. Knowledge is power. Keep up to date with team news/injuries etc.
Following on from that, the other great leveller is the weather. Consider the Leeds - Listeria Tigres game. Under normal circumstances, expecting Tigres to win by sixteen points or more might not seem that outlandish (or that welcome, but we'll let that pass for now.)
But suppose there is heavy rain in the area the day before, or heavy rain is forecast for game time. This will slow the game down; tries will not be as easy to get. Wet weather rugby, and not as many points. Suddenly, giving up sixteen points away from home doesn't appeal as a punting proposition.
Rule 6. Keep an eye on the weather forecast.
Hopefully by following the rules above, you should gain an edge in your battle with the bookmaker.
If you have any queries on the above, please post on the ComeOnYouSaints.Com messageboard and I'll try to answer your questions.
Good luck!
WellSaint
First, the basics.
Every week during the season, the major bookmakers issue a list of prices for the weekend's games. The prices are not usually available before Friday of the week concerned.
Here is an example of what the first week's price list could look like:
Sale Sharks (-4 points) 5/6 Northampton Saints (+4 points) 5/6 Draw 16/1
Leeds Tykes (+15 points) 5/6 Listeria Tigres (-15 points) 5/6 Draw 16/1
NEC Harlequins (+4 points) 5/6 Gloucester (-4 points) 5/6 Draw 16/1
Reading Irish (-8 points) 5/6 Bath (+8 points) 5/6 Draw 16/1
Newcastle Falcons (-3 points) 5/6 HW Wasps (+3 points) 5/6 Draw 16/1
Bristol Shoguns (-3 points) 5/6 Saracens (+3 points) 5/6 Draw 16/1
The first thing to note is that all teams have a bracket next to their name, with either plus or minus points. This is a handicap; i.e. how many points the bookmaker feels the team with the minus number (for example Gloucester) will beat the team with the positive number (Harlequins) by. Every bookmaker issues a different handicap list (for example, another bookmaker might have Sale at -6 and the Saints at +6 points.) You have to take this into account when deciding what side to back.
For the sake of illustration, let us assume in the Quins-Glos game that you think the final score will be NEC Harlequins 18 Gloucester 20. You would then back Harlequins, as they have a four point head start. Similarly, if you had a bet on the stripey cats from Wellbad Road, they would need to win by sixteen clear points or more for you to collect.
Unfortunately, some bookmakers (but not all) insist on a minimum of three selections (a treble), unless the game is live on TV when they will take singles. This means you have to be able to predict three out of the six games accurately. On some weekends, this is merely a challenging task; in most cases, it's downright impossible. Therefore:
Rule 1. Always bet with bookmakers who are prepared to offer singles on all games, not just the live TV game. As I mentioned earlier, different bookmakers issue different prices.
Let's focus in on the Quins-Glos match again.
Bookmaker A offers Quins +4 points at 5/6; Glos -4 points at 5/6; 16/1 Draw.
Bookmaker B offers Quins -2 points at 5/6; Glos +2 points at 5/6; 16/1 Draw.
This is a gilt edged opportunity for the punter, whether he fancies Quins or Gloucester. If he fancies Quins, he goes to Bookmaker A, who gives him a four point cushion. That means if Quins win, or lose by 3 points or less, he has a winning bet. If he fancies Gloucester, he goes to Bookmaker B, who gives him a two point start, which means if Glos win, draw, or lose by a single point, he wins.
This doesn't happen very often, but in tight games, I've seen odds similar to these.
Rule 2: Always look out for the gilt-edged opportunities when rival bookmakers cannot agree who is most likely to win a match.
You will note from the above examples that the normal price for any team to win is 5/6. This means if you place a six pound bet and are successful, you will win five pounds, plus your six pounds back - a total of eleven pounds. Obviously if you predict two results your winnings will be bigger - if you stake five pounds and predict two results correctly, you will get just under seventeen pounds back. Three results would return you nearly thirty-one pounds.
However, some bookmakers will offer you 10/11 instead of 5/6, and as this is a better price, these bookmakers should be favoured. If you are very lucky, you may find someone offering evens (and no, I'm not prepared to divulge that particular secret!)
Rule 3: Always bet with the bookmaker prepared to offer 10/11 instead of the stingier 5/6 - especially if you are predicting more than one result.
This form of betting is known as handicap betting, because you have to overcome the bookies' handicap to win (hence the plus or minus points against each team in the example price list above.) However, for some sports (for example American Football), the handicap is quoted as 3.5 points, or 7.5 points. This has the effect of making the draw an impossibility.
Let us once more take the example of the Quins vs Glos game, and the prices shown in the price list. If the final score was Harlequins 16 Gloucester 20, neither the Harlequins nor the Gloucester backers would get paid out. That is because the correct prediction is this case would be a draw (i.e. a four point win to Gloucester, in line with the bookmaker's prediction.)
In a tight game, not having the draw to worry about is very useful (especially if the handicap is three, and you think the game will go down to who shoots the most penalties.)
Rule 4: If you can find a bookmaker who prices the game in half-points, effectively taking the draw out the equation, use that bookmaker.
The bookmaker prices up many events each day; horse races, football matches, greyhound races etc. Their knowledge of horse racing and what's happening where, which horses are fancied, which horses are not, is legendary. Their knowledge of rugby union is not. They are less likely to know about team news, injuries and the like than we are. Knowledge is power.
Consider the Bristol vs Saracens game. Bristol's successes have been built around the 10-9 Argentine partnership. If Argentina were playing on that day, and both players had been called into the squad, it would lessen Bristol's chances of winning. You would probably have doubts as to whether Bristol would win, let alone by four clear points or more. This is a simple example. But by using the messageboards of COYSDC and other Premiership clubs, you could find out team news before the bookmakers. This gives you an edge, which you should use.
Rule 5. Knowledge is power. Keep up to date with team news/injuries etc.
Following on from that, the other great leveller is the weather. Consider the Leeds - Listeria Tigres game. Under normal circumstances, expecting Tigres to win by sixteen points or more might not seem that outlandish (or that welcome, but we'll let that pass for now.)
But suppose there is heavy rain in the area the day before, or heavy rain is forecast for game time. This will slow the game down; tries will not be as easy to get. Wet weather rugby, and not as many points. Suddenly, giving up sixteen points away from home doesn't appeal as a punting proposition.
Rule 6. Keep an eye on the weather forecast.
Hopefully by following the rules above, you should gain an edge in your battle with the bookmaker.
If you have any queries on the above, please post on the ComeOnYouSaints.Com messageboard and I'll try to answer your questions.
Good luck!
WellSaint
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