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News: CC: Northampton Saints vs Treviso - Match Preview


By Grim Reaper
December 11 2014

After a bonus point success in Northern Italy last time out, Northampton Saints welcome Benetton Rugby Treviso back to Franklin's Gardens this Saturday afternoon in Round Four of the pool matches in the 1014/15 European Rugby Champions Cup. COYSDC contributor, Grim Reaper (Graham to his mates!), looks ahead to a game in which another maximum haul will be vital in Saints' quest to make the knock-out stages of the competition...

 

 

NORTHAMPTON SAINTS vs. BENETTON RUGBY TREVISO

Saturday, 13th December 2014 - 3.15pm (BT Sport 2)

FRANKLIN'S GARDENS, NORTHAMPTON

MATCH PREVIEW

 

Long term weather forecast:  Dry & sunny (but cold) 
 
Traffic:  ***Wendyball alert….I repeat, Wendyball alert….*** (Cobblers kick off at 3pm).
 
 
And so, we reach the half way mark in the Qualification Stages of the new European competition. I don't know about others, but I can't bring myself to call it the "Champions Cup", whilst the roster is bloated by makeweights like Leicester and Saracens.
 
What did we discover from Round 3, besides the fact that my capacity for rapacious pizza consumption remains undiminished, and that Martin Castrogiovanni is a shrewder judge of character than we had hitherto given credit for?  Well, first time visitors to Treviso will have discovered that a visit to this charming town is a very pleasant experience indeed, and will be hoping that a return fixture isn't too far away; a Castres-like embrace for the next few seasons would be most welcome.  
 
On the field, my belief is that whilst Saints will make the correct noises about Treviso being a quality side, and "earning the right", they will have discovered that there is a mismatch between the teams, and that 5 points in the return fixture is an absolute minimum requirement. To my eye at least, the Italians looked underpowered at scrum time, and with the exception of their first try, looked short of the pace and guile needed to breach a defence which, whilst lacking a cool brand-name, remains the tightest in England.  
 
Jim and the coaching staff will no doubt have one eye on the return to Premiership action against our nearest and dearest the following weekend.  With strength in depth across the squad, and an easing of the injury list, there are several ways that Saints could decide to approach the return fixture.  My expectation would be to don "Full Metal Jacket" at the start, with careful marshalling of resources once the Bonus Point has been secured, so I'll have a stab at a starting team of:
 
15 Foden
14 Pisi K
13 Pisi G
12 Burrell
11 North / Elliott
 
10 Myler
9 Dickson
 
1 Waller A
2 Hartley
3 Ma'afu / Denman
4 Lawes
5 Day
6 Clark
7 Wood
8 Manoa
 
On injuries, I'm assuming that Saints will be without the services of Dickinson, Fisher, Craig, and long-term absentee Corbisiero.  Hopefully Ma'afu has shrugged off his bad back and will be fit to return..  Like many others, I would like to see some attention given to Christian Day's work load, and would give SMyler a bit of breather should all go to plan in the first 3 quarters.
 
I'd expect the bookmakers to be handicapping this match in the high 20s, possibly early 30s, and were it not for the AP fixtures looming large on the horizon (Leicester at home, Quins away), my dollars would be backing Saints to beat the Italians like a ginger step-child.  I may still choose to do so depending on team selection; the second half handicap will be of interest to me, should Jim adopt a similar loaded-bench strategy for the return fixture.  If the long term weather forecast is accurate, it should be a good day for running rugby.
 
To those who think that the above smacks of chicken-counting, I offer only half-hearted apologies. The home side should be far too powerful for the Pro12 basement unit and the back room boys will have done their analysis in the week. In any event, an element of bravura allows me to plot scenarios for the conclusion of the group.  After the opening reverse in Paris, Saints have made up ground to the extent that their fate is back in their own hands. Three victories in their remaining matches will be sufficient for them to qualify as group winners.  
 
In all realistic scenarios, the final match of the group against the Parisians at the Gardens will be pivotal. Taking the most pessimistic assumption, Racing will come into the final match on 20 points, though of course it would be helpful if the Ospreys could drop some guano into the Foie Gras.  A 20 point haul for Racing would set up the following scenarios:
 
Saints win in Wales: Beating Racing is enough
Saints draw in Wales: A bonus point win would secure first place, as would any win which denies Racing a BP.   
Saints LBP in Wales: Saints would need a 5 point win, or beat Racing by 10 without scoring 4 tries (whilst denying them a TBP).
 
Coming home from the Liberty Stadium with nothing (other than the famous Welsh goodwill towards the English ringing in their ears) means that a Bonus Point win by more than 9 points would be required, whilst denying Racing a TBP.  At least this is my reading of the qualification rules, please feel free to point out any error.
 
So, to conclude - it's that time of year when we all hope that a fat bearded man will spread jollity, and Castro has certainly not disappointed us.  If the other hirsute fatty is listening, could I please ask him for 5 points, an injury free squad, and a Leicester dressing room resembling a casualty clearing station on the Somme?  
 
Thanks Santa.
 
 

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News: CC: Northampton Saints vs Treviso - Match Preview
Discussion started by ComeOnYouSaints.com , 11/12/2014 16:07
ComeOnYouSaints.com
11/12/2014 16:07
What do you think? You can have your say by posting below.
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Phil.
11/12/2014 16:13
Nice one, GR, and many thanks!

Apologies for the slight delay in publishing - Christmas shopping got in the way... (Sm16)

Atom
11/12/2014 16:25
Good read GR.

By the way it was a Mustang. Worth a listen to the screaming supper chargers on YouTube

fair_weather_fan
11/12/2014 18:45
I will enjoy second guessing your selection after the weekend GR

Saintly Pursuit
11/12/2014 19:25
Quote:
So, to conclude - it's that time of year when we all hope that a fat bearded man will spread jollity, and Castro has certainly not disappointed us

PMSL

Stockers
11/12/2014 20:36
Thanks GR, very readable!

HRsaints fan
11/12/2014 21:48
Excellent revie GR

HRsaints fan
11/12/2014 21:49
Stupid iPad. Excellent review GR!!

Bob Stainsby
12/12/2014 07:34
Well writ. Mr Grim sir bravo

Top of the League 2014-2015 Season

St Dormouse
12/12/2014 08:19
(Sm152)Splendid read Mr.Reaper. Had me chuckling. Irreverent and lacking any form of political correctness, My kind of review.

Chris G
12/12/2014 10:57
Fat man, beard, yes, very good winking smiley

Deesaint
12/12/2014 10:59
Excellent read
I felt a HIGNFY slant

Flinstone Saint
12/12/2014 11:15
Many thanks for an excellent read, GR. It didn't disappoint.

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Grim Reaper
12/12/2014 14:26
Thank you ladies and gentlemen.....

Looks like I was miles out on team selection, but on the money regarding handicap lines. Currently -31 and drifting. With a mighty bench to roll on, the second half handicap is calling to me....



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2014:12:12:14:32:44 by Grim Reaper.

Saint James
12/12/2014 17:03
😂

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