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Re: Our 2019/20 Target
Roger G 06 January, 2020 07:35
Quote:
Steve_M
Quote:
boomer!
We all know the `13 clubs have to agree to it so when would this decision be made?
If Sarries are bottom we wont vote for it.
If anyone else is bottom they wont vote for it.

I'm probably missing something obvious here Boomer but why would the team who finishes bottom and is about to be relegated not vote for ringfencing when ringfencing would apply to all PRL clubs so would keep them up ?

It would depend on whether the ringfencing was of the 12 Prem teams after promotion/relegation had been applied, or the current 12 plus the promoted club (i.e. no relegation).

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
Duncan Keene 06 January, 2020 12:13
Quote:
Sara'sman
May I reiterate mfc's point! I confess the lack of direct comment and interest (though thank you df) after sharing somethings I 've been doing to satisfy my own curiosity but thought others would appreciate, disappointed me. Taking the thread OT (and OTT) even more so.
One aspect that I think the data shows clearly is just how deluded are those on other boards who believe that we'll end up in the top 4 (even the top 6 is extremely unlikely imv). A look at the gaps to 4th after R1 (4.59 pts) and R6 (still 3.55 pts despite 5 wins) illustrates the enormity of that task when even a BP win effectively garners only 3.41 points.

Every loss will take us several games to recover our position and I'll be happy if we suffer no more than 3 between now and the end of our depleted spell in the 6N, and our stars return in reasonable condition for a tough run-in. Pests then Wocester our greatest hope imv, then Leicester with their 6N absentees.

Thanks for the interesting post, i do look out for your threads on my visits to this board as i always find them fascinating.

I don't think those that say you might make top 4 are any more deluded than those on here that think you might finish bottom. I think taking a point ( gaps to 4th after R1 (4.59 pts) and R6 (still 3.55 pts despite 5 wins)) out of the gap to 4th already is great progress.

The data you've produced seems pretty clear to me that 7th to 9th are the most likely finishing positions. You are well on track to overtake at least 3 of the actual worst 6 teams in the league. Finishing position is incredibly hard to predict for all teams this year other than Exeter (and probably Saints). I could see everyone else finishing as high as 3rd and at least half the teams finishing bottom.

I think it's well within your capabilities to get bonus point wins in all 9 games after the 6 Nations, but the next block of international call up affected fixtures could be harder.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
GazzaFez 06 January, 2020 12:19
In terms of our target this was actually a pretty good weekend.

Whilst we we maintained par with Tigers, we did take 5 points off Quins, Bath and Wuss.
We also took 3 points off Irish and Wasps. As Tigers are the team above us it's natural to focus on our score relative to them. However, as has been mooted elsewhere I'm convinced that once we get into the final third of the season it's Wuss and Irish that will be in the relegation dogfight, along with us, and not Tigers. I'm convinced that making the playoffs is fantasy and even making top 6 will require a set of results in matches elsewhere which we have no control over, so again whilst possible is highly unlikely IMHO.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
Duncan Keene 06 January, 2020 12:29
I think as much as anything your final position will be determined by whether there is a loss of focus once you are off the bottom or not.

That and the other factor you mention of the other teams. Exeter for example could keep matching you result for result and look to top the table by a mile or they might rotate heavily once they are relatively secure in top 2.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
GazzaFez 06 January, 2020 14:06
Quote:
Duncan Keene
I think as much as anything your final position will be determined by whether there is a loss of focus once you are off the bottom or not.

Whilst true, I suspect the chances of that happening are approaching zero.

Quote:
Duncan Keene
That and the other factor you mention of the other teams. Exeter for example could keep matching you result for result and look to top the table by a mile or they might rotate heavily once they are relatively secure in top 2.

Depends very much on how they progress in the ECC. In previous seasons, as we all know, this is an issue they haven't had to contend with. Will be interesting to see how they deal with it if and when they have to.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
hertsman 07 January, 2020 06:06
Bonus points are critical this season. There's 14 TBP left at stake (trying unrealistically to ignore any LBP as we don't want to be in that position). At today's run rate of 50% (4 from 8), 7 is the equivalent of nearly 2 wins. We have averaged 13 over the last 5 seasons, so are behind that average at the moment. We should look for more. Every point counts, particularly as it looks like being another tightly bunched season. The days of a London Welsh clear bottom runner are long gone.

Assuming we win our normal level of 16 games a season, that should give us another 10 wins this year, so the four losses must pick up at least 1 LBP each game.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
Duncan Keene 07 January, 2020 09:25
With 9 games after the 6 nations i'm expecting more try bonus points across the board this year compared with years where more of the season is in the Autumn and Winter.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
GazzaFez 07 January, 2020 14:09
Quote:
hertsman
Bonus points are critical this season. There's 14 TBP left at stake (trying unrealistically to ignore any LBP as we don't want to be in that position). At today's run rate of 50% (4 from 8), 7 is the equivalent of nearly 2 wins. We have averaged 13 over the last 5 seasons, so are behind that average at the moment. We should look for more. Every point counts, particularly as it looks like being another tightly bunched season. The days of a London Welsh clear bottom runner are long gone.
Assuming we win our normal level of 16 games a season, that should give us another 10 wins this year, so the four losses must pick up at least 1 LBP each game.

I think the crucial difference this season is that in previous years we have only concentrated on reaching the playoffs and preferably top two. This has been reflected in our team selections in the closing stages of the season when we had already secured a semi-final slot.

This season is different and we will be going all out to win all our games as if we were chasing pole position with team selections to match. I would therefore hope we can do better than 16 wins in those circumstances.

As you say TBPs will be critical this season.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
Wilson Pickett 07 January, 2020 15:44
I think it will be interesting to see how the players respond to all the recent conjecture about wages and players leaving. Quins away at the end of January won't be easy then you have Sale with a team of Springboks and your England players away. Then Wasps (banana skin) and Saints away during the 6N, both of whom are probably less affected.

It makes for a very interesting season! You have had a very good start thankfully.

I think Worcester are the worst side and probably go down unless they pick up some wins in Feb/March. I just can't see where those wins come from....

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
Roger G 07 January, 2020 18:27
Quote:
Wilson Pickett
I think it will be interesting to see how the players respond to all the recent conjecture about wages and players leaving. Quins away at the end of January won't be easy then you have Sale with a team of Springboks and your England players away. Then Wasps (banana skin) and Saints away during the 6N, both of whom are probably less affected.
It makes for a very interesting season! You have had a very good start thankfully.

I think Worcester are the worst side and probably go down unless they pick up some wins in Feb/March. I just can't see where those wins come from....

As I've said elsewhere, the players will be dealing with clarity direct from EG, rather than conjecture from journalists.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
JL904 07 January, 2020 19:11
@ Roger

Spot on, mate.

Let's be honest, the only difference between us and journalists is that they're paid for their guessing and have a readership in the thousands - we post our guff for nowt, and it's read by a few dozen.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
Duncan Keene 07 January, 2020 20:01
Quote:
GazzaFez
Quote:
hertsman
Bonus points are critical this season. There's 14 TBP left at stake (trying unrealistically to ignore any LBP as we don't want to be in that position). At today's run rate of 50% (4 from 8), 7 is the equivalent of nearly 2 wins. We have averaged 13 over the last 5 seasons, so are behind that average at the moment. We should look for more. Every point counts, particularly as it looks like being another tightly bunched season. The days of a London Welsh clear bottom runner are long gone.
Assuming we win our normal level of 16 games a season, that should give us another 10 wins this year, so the four losses must pick up at least 1 LBP each game.

I think the crucial difference this season is that in previous years we have only concentrated on reaching the playoffs and preferably top two. This has been reflected in our team selections in the closing stages of the season when we had already secured a semi-final slot.

This season is different and we will be going all out to win all our games as if we were chasing pole position with team selections to match. I would therefore hope we can do better than 16 wins in those circumstances.

As you say TBPs will be critical this season.

I think this is a really crucial point. Which is why i keep just looking at what the absolute maximum points you can get is (currently 63) and considering that possible right until it doesn't happen. I'd certainly put money on you getting at least 8 x 5 point wins out of the 9 games after the six nations.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
Sara'sman 23 August, 2020 17:17
The increased dosage of our punishment, the Covid delay and Leicester concentrating on Europe spinning smiley sticking its tongue out rendered the concept behind this thread pointless, but for my own divertissement I have kept going with the spreadsheet and share the current positions for anyone interested. First the summary (we're currently 10th, "ahead" of Wuss and Tigers):

Rnd	Res	Points	Red'd	Pos
1	L	1	-0.59	12
2	w	5	1.82	10
3	w	9	4.23	10
4	w	13	6.64	9
5	w	17	9.05	9
6	W	22	12.45	9
7	L	23	11.86	10
8	W	28	15.27	9
9	l	28	13.68	11
10	W	33	17.09	11
11	l	33	15.50	12
12	W	38	18.91	12
13	w	42	21.32	11
14	L	43	20.73	11
15	W	48	24.14	10

And a fuller picture:

Rnd\Pos	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
1	5	4	4	4	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	-0.59
2	9	9	6	6	5	5	4	4	4	1.82	1	0
3	14	10	10	9	7	5	5	5	5	4.23	4	4
4	14	14	11	10	10	10	9	8	6.64	6	5	4
5	19	17	15	13	12	12	11	10	9.05	8	5	4
6	20	19	17	16	16	15	13	13	12.45	12	6	4
7	24	23	18	18	17	17	17	17	12	11.86	11	6
8	29	28	23	22	18	17	17	17	15.27	13	13	11
9	29	29	26	23	22	22	21	18	18	17	13.68	12
10	34	30	26	26	25	23	22	22	19	18	17.09	16
11	39	31	30	30	29	27	24	23	23	20	16	15.5
12	40	35	34	31	30	28	28	28	25	21	20	18.91
13	45	40	38	35	33	30	28	28	26	22	21.32	20
14	50	42	41	38	35	35	32	31	28	22	20.73	20
15	55	47	43	41	40	40	32	31	28	24.14	22	20
	Ex	Br	Wa	Sl	Ba	No	Ha	Gl	Ir	Sa	Wo	Le

One stat that struck me before posting is that in this entire season our full squad (bar injuries) will only have been available for 4 league games!

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