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Our 2019/20 Target
Discussion started by Sara'sman , 21 November, 2019 15:34
Our 2019/20 Target
Sara'sman 21 November, 2019 15:34
Below are the points accrued by teams finishing 4th, 6th 11th and 12th over the past decade:

      4    6   11   12
19 | 56   56   41   31
18 | 63   56   36   22
17 | 66   52   33   20
16 | 65   58   27   20
15 | 68   61   34    1
14 | 67   57   22   18
13 | 65   59   33   23
12 | 65   49   33   32
11 | 65   54   23   23
10 | 61   52   32   28

In red are the second highest totals in each position over the decade (as a nod to ignoring outliers). I think this confirms that 4th (102 pts or over 4.6 per game) is unrealistic as, I would suggest, is 6th (94 pts - 4.3 per game). A target of matching (so finishing above) 11th (71pts - over 3.2 per game) or 12th (66pts - exactly 3 per game) more realistic.

So how are we doing? The left hand table shows, for each round, our actual pre-deduction points total together with how this compares to a schedule of finishing above 11th and 12th.

Round     11    12   Act                 11  Act     12  Act
 1 NO |  3.2     3     1                1.6    0    1.4    0
 2 Le |  6.5     6     5                3.3    1    2.8    1
 3 IR |  9.7     9     9                4.9    4    4.2    4
 4 Gl | 12.9    12    13                6.5    5    5.6    4
 5 Ba   16.1    15    17                8.2    5    7.0    4
 6 BR   19.4    18    22                9.8    6    8.5    4

 7 Ex   22.6    21                     11.5         9.9
 8 WO   25.8    24
 9 Ha | 29.0    27
10 SL | 32.3    30
11 Wa | 35.5    33                     18.0        15.5
12 No | 38.7    36 
13 LE | 42.0    39
14 Br | 45.2    42
15 HA   48.4    45
16 GL   51.6    48   

Thus currently (after R4) we are on schedule for finishing ahead of the11th placed club. Clearly this takes no account of the quality of the opposition faced so far but hopefully will give us a rough idea as to where we are until the last half dozen or so games when the picture should be much clearer.

The right hand table (which you may wish to ignore!) shows how the teams (ignoring our deduction) in 11th and 12th places are performing in relation to "their schedule" of 36 and 31 points respectively. Currently good news - both are behind (though too early to be meaningful).


Correction!
On completing the original version of this post it struck me that I had missed an important detail, one that hasn’t been raised by anyone in the many other references to this theme, namely that if we try to use recent seasons points totals to estimate what we might need to score in order to finish 4th (or 6th) this year, we should be looking at the historic records of clubs finishing 5th or 7th (not 4th or 6th).

The reason for this is that one of the top 4 points scoring clubs (namely us) has effectively been removed, shunting most other clubs up one position before reinstating the “deducted Sarries” lower down the table. To finish 6th we need to tie on points (and therefore finish above on games won) with the club that historically finished 7th (and would have been 6th following us getting a deduction).

A second, subjective detail (one that I’ve ignored) is that this season appears to be one where the points differences between higher and lower clubs is likely to be less varied.

I’ve looked at the points scored by us and by clubs finishing 5th and 7th over the decade:

5th | 56   63   59   60   68   67   60   59   62  57
7th | 55   56   52   55   54   49   53   46   52  48

Sar | 78   77   77   80   68   87   77   73   76  69
-35 | 43   42   42   45   33   52   42   38   41  34

This shows that our record total in 2013/14 is the only year in which we would have finished in the top 6 (above Wasps who were 7th). A year in which we were less affected by World Cups, 6 Nations, and the mental and physical exhaustion of a long season for top players. I remain of the opinion that concentrating on beating 12th and 11th places remains our tough target.



Edited 4 time(s). Last edit at 22/12/2019 09:41 by Sara'sman.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
JO'G 21 November, 2019 15:51
In a simplistic world,

tiggers would after 22 games be on 22 points based on their current activity

Sarries at the current rate would be on around 70

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
TonyTaff 21 November, 2019 15:52
Very informative, thanks.

Can you tell that he used to teach maths?



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Re: Our 2019/20 Target
Primavesi2 22 November, 2019 09:55
How important will that late win over Irish prove to be in hindsight i wonder?

Great analysis. Some very tricky games coming up though and teams will be determined to beat us this year. Very much doubt we will see teams resting players when coming to Azp like they have sometimes done in the past.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
#wolfpack 22 November, 2019 10:38
Quote:
Primavesi2
How important will that late win over Irish prove to be in hindsight i wonder?
Great analysis. Some very tricky games coming up though and teams will be determined to beat us this year. Very much doubt we will see teams resting players when coming to Azp like they have sometimes done in the past.

Not sure actually - this could play in our favour.

Playing against us isn't really what will define Exeter's or Bristol's season. They also know that we will be fielding a gun side every week we possibly can. If I were looking at the top 4, I would focus on beating other teams looking at the top 4, rather than putting out my best team at AzP against a full strength and desperate Saracens side who are likely to give you a hiding anyway.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
Sara'sman 22 November, 2019 11:53
Quote:
Primavesi2
How important will that late win over Irish prove to be in hindsight i wonder?

I thought the same at the time (albeit then for top 4 qualification) and again when typing the above post Listing the fixtures also hit home that we're very likely to be playing catch-up: of the first 14 rounds we'll be missing large numbers of internationals in 10 of them. Makes the Irish points (and Leicester result) even more important for the confidence of the squad. The last 8 fixtures (5 at home) will be interesting!

My hope was for 8pts from the first 4 fixtures, is for 12 from the next 4. Then the diminished squad will have another tough 6 fixtures (4 away) to keep in the fight.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
MarchingIn 23 November, 2019 20:28
I looked back at past seasons and concluded you could squeak 6th but were unlikely to either go down or reach the play off.

What I find intriguing about it is the tactical side on selections.

Say you're out of Europe and get to these fixtures:

Gloucester at home
Irish away
Wasps at home
Sale away

You have 5 top players who you decide can only play 2 of these fixtures for rotational purposes - when do you rest them? Sale away is a tough ask - do you plan to play them all then and hope you were good enough to win some of the other games without them? Spread it about? Target the 2 most winnable games in the middle? Target the home games?



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 23/11/2019 20:34 by MarchingIn.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
Garp285 23 November, 2019 21:58
An interesting one Marcingin. But just as intriguing is what the opposition do! Take Glaws, the game at AzP is followed by two home games, against Wasps then Tiggs. Do they go all out to win at AzP or rest players for the possibly more winnable home games? The regular seasons end is certainly going to be interesting!

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
South Beds Sarrie 23 November, 2019 23:47
It's a very curious situation where one of the two strongest sides in the league is fighting relegation, and I think that it contributes to our chances of staying up. If you are one of the teams going for top four why would you put out your strongest side against us when you are probably going to lose and we are not a direct competitor? I suppose on the other hand, other relegation threatened teams might target us, but I can't see them getting much. Don't want to be complacent, but I think we'll be ok.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
MarchingIn 24 November, 2019 07:56
Every club finishing 4th-8th last year won either 10 or 11 games and lost either 11 or 12. You won 16 games and it only needed 10 wins to get into the mix. 6 wins with a BP is 30 of the 35 point deficit, so based on last year, you would fall just short - but it certainly isn't "mission impossible" and nobody who might find themselves in the mid-table scrap can afford not to take that seriously - even if nobody coming to AP considers themselves the favourite, if they can stop you getting a TBP and get an LBP themselves, that's a 2 point swing in their favour which could be hugely important at the end - there was only 1 point between 4th and 7th last year.

It also matters to the sport that you are truly seen to have suffered the consequences of cheating. Pretty much nobody wants to see you in the top 6 this season let alone the top 4. I may be wrong, but I don't think you'll get any easy home games this year, because I suspect the "don't even think about it" conversation about sending a weakened side to AP has already happened at some clubs. If I was a Chairman or CEO, it's one I would definitely be having.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 24/11/2019 07:58 by MarchingIn.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
JO'G 24 November, 2019 11:14
Getting into the 4th to 8th scrap is beyond us. We won't be in the main European competition next season.

Focus on getting more points than the last placed team with 5 games before the 6 nations make sure our best side is available and we could be on 0 by then

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
Sarriebone 24 November, 2019 11:19
The best possible result we can hope for by the 6N is one point behind Leicester, and that's only if we win every match with a bonus point and they don't score a single point in those 5 matches. I would say focus on the league and see how we get on in Europe, if it's going well then maybe put a bit more effort in, but if we don't make it out of the pool stages then I don't see it as a tragedy.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
Sorry Sarrie 24 November, 2019 19:03
After R92 & Munster delivered us a drawn match I'd say that getting out of the pool stage and not getting relegated is a reasonable goal. French teams looking ominous esp Toulouse & Racing.
Talking of French teams and how the mighty are (possibly) fallen, interesting to note that Toulon only managed to beat Scarlets by 17 - 16 with a 1 man advantage for half the game.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
hertsman 24 November, 2019 22:25
Don't forget it's not just Leicester we are chasing. Quins & Wasps have the same record of W1 L3 so are also within reach. In the next 5 games, Quins play three of them against bottom four contenders - (Wasps away, Leicester home & us home). I'm not sure any of these will be in the mix at the end of the season anyway. Maybe we should be thinking more about the pre-season bookies choices of LI or Wuss as relegation candidates as realistic targets, so comparing our results against theirs?

None of this speculation matters. No doubt McCall et al will be reminding the players to not care about the other teams results. Just focus on our own performances and win each project, and pick the games off one at a time.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
Barty II 25 November, 2019 08:03
Wouldn't even bother picking a team to chase - just count down (hopefully always down!) the gap to 11th...

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
TonyTaff 25 November, 2019 10:30
This thread features some remarkably unimaginative plans.

I read this upside down on Nigel's desk:

Set up an offshore company to clandestinely pay our England players £20,000 for every international match they miss, then coerce them into announcing a sabbatical from international rugby. Field them all in the AP during the 6N. If RFU or PRL threaten further sanctions, threaten them with crippling legal costs. Change the wording on the stand to "No-one likes us, we don't care."

That's what I call a plan! (Sm22)



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Re: Our 2019/20 Target
AP 25 November, 2019 11:37
Tony, perhaps some of them will decide to "do a Marler" and retire temporarily from international rugby, particularly if they conclude that Eddie just wants them to hold tackle bags at training camps.



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Re: Our 2019/20 Target
Sara'sman 22 December, 2019 17:22
An alternative way of assessing our progress is to look at our position if the 35 point deduction is applied evenly over the 22 rounds, at a rate of 1.59 points per game. Here is our season so far:

Round	Points	Red'd	Pos
1	1	-0.59	12
2	5	1.82	10
3	9	4.23	10
4	13	6.64	9
5	17	9.05	9
6	22	12.45	9

For those who would like a fuller picture:

Round	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
1	5	4	4	4	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	-0.59
2	9	9	6	6	5	5	4	4	4	1.82	1	0
3	14	10	10	9	7	5	5	5	5	4.23	4	4
4	14	14	11	10	10	10	9	8	6.64	6	5	4
5	19	17	15	13	12	12	11	10	9.05	8	5	4
6	20	19	17	16	16	15	13	13	12.45	12	6	4

And for anyone making it this far, the 6 BP in this round is a season high, with 5 in every other round except for the 3 in Round Four.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
derbyshire fan 22 December, 2019 21:29
I really like that way of looking at it; I think it makes for a much better assessment of how we are doing round by round - rather than only seeing the picture by the time we get to round 18 or something. Big thanks for doing all the analysis

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
Innings 23 December, 2019 23:40
I absolutely could not care less about Europe at the moment. The only objective that matters is to finish 11th or better in the GP.



Innings

Points win matches: tries win hearts and minds.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
TOKS 24 December, 2019 09:33
We'll be fine, Innings.

Let's analyse the points deduction. Was it for some wrongdoing? Presumably not as previous titles would have been stripped and the full process transparently published.

What it was was a judgment imposed by a kangeroo court (to which they tried to attribute some kudos by appointing a "former supreme court judge"), borne out of jealousy, with all details kept scrupulously secret. It was designed not to have us relegated, but merely to make sure we didn't win it AGAIN, and to (try to) ensure that we didn't qualify for the main European competition with the knock-on effects on our player retention and recruitment. Vindictive in other words.

More than that it is producing a fascinating season and is developing our squad players better and quicker than would have been possible otherwise. As a result it will make us even more competitive in 2020/21 - thank you PRL! It is also leading to far more interesting conversations with both fellow home and away supporters than ever before.

Merry Xmas!

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
BlackheathSaracen 24 December, 2019 10:20
Quote:
TOKS
Was it for some wrongdoing? Presumably not as previous titles would have been stripped and the full process transparently published.
Its worth noting that as far as I know the Laws don't (currently) allow for stripping titles. Equally the independent commission was always going to be bound by a non-disclosure type agreement. Neither of those things really suggest anything at all about wrong-doing or otherwise they are just the way the rules are currently applied.

Quote:
TOKS
it is producing a fascinating season and is developing our squad players better and quicker than would have been possible otherwise. As a result it will make us even more competitive in 2020/21
Agreed. It feels a very welcome but somewhat strange result of this investigation, guilty verdict, fine and points deduction is that the squad will be even stronger in the coming seasons although they'll have less to compete for most likely for a couple of seasons including this one.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
Steve_M 24 December, 2019 10:32
Keep posting TOKS you really do brighten up my days with your reasoning ...

"Let's analyse the points deduction. Was it for some wrongdoing? Presumably not ..."

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
mfc 24 December, 2019 11:20
This is a great and informative thread. Please don’t ruin it by turning it to another “we was innocent gov” thread, otherwise it’ll become a honey pot to to under bridge dwellers.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
Sara'sman 24 December, 2019 11:57
May I reiterate mfc's point! I confess the lack of direct comment and interest (though thank you df) after sharing somethings I 've been doing to satisfy my own curiosity but thought others would appreciate, disappointed me. Taking the thread OT (and OTT) even more so.

One aspect that I think the data shows clearly is just how deluded are those on other boards who believe that we'll end up in the top 4 (even the top 6 is extremely unlikely imv). A look at the gaps to 4th after R1 (4.59 pts) and R6 (still 3.55 pts despite 5 wins) illustrates the enormity of that task when even a BP win effectively garners only 3.41 points.

Every loss will take us several games to recover our position and I'll be happy if we suffer no more than 3 between now and the end of our depleted spell in the 6N, and our stars return in reasonable condition for a tough run-in. Pests then Wocester our greatest hope imv, then Leicester with their 6N absentees.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
TOKS 24 December, 2019 12:07
I was trying to cheer Innings up!

It was a little tongue in cheek but I do think it will make us stronger, both mentally and squad-wise.

In my heart of hearts I think it'll be Challenge Cup rugby for us and that maybe Siberia could be fun smiling smiley

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
myleftboot 29 December, 2019 13:26
There were always some nice aways in the lesser cup

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
TonyTaff 30 December, 2019 12:19
Quote:
myleftboot
There were always some nice aways in the lesser cup

Aye, I have never been to Siberia (Sm22)



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Re: Our 2019/20 Target
myleftboot 30 December, 2019 12:30
Bet the Vodka is blinding.....

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
boomer! 31 December, 2019 15:56
Excellent work Sara'sman.

I took your data and put it into a spreadsheet which also includes the other 11 teams averages so I can compare our rolling cumulative and average per game success with the other 11.

Our success (survival) this season is very much also dependent on others failures.

Which, given the bright starts by Wuzz, L.Irish & Brizzle, AND the likelihood that Tigers & Wasps will start turning their season's around, makes for some intriguing twists and turns over the next few months.

Happy New Year everyone.



It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
Innings 31 December, 2019 18:23
All the comfort talk, for which Thankyou TOKS, does not alter the fact that Sarries stand 18 points behind the 11th placed club with 15 games to play. Last season we averaged 3.5 points per game. That suggests that realistically we could expect to end up on about 41 points, being 53 from remaining games, less 12 still outstanding of the deduction. Tigers are on 6 points, so need about 35 points from 15 games, averaging a little less than 2.5 per game, for a season total of 41. By chance that 41 is exactly their total last season.

I am confident that this chase will run until the last two or three games of the season.



Innings

Points win matches: tries win hearts and minds.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
JO'G 31 December, 2019 19:11
Don't forget we only need to get level with the 11th team. With 9 more wins than that team we will be above them

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
TonyTaff 31 December, 2019 23:35
Be very clear, neither Tigers nor W*sps will be as bad as their season start.

I fear that our target points will be more challenging than those of previous seasons.

We should not have burnt International players' appearances at Sandy Park and we should not be doing so in Europe.



£721.05 (*) donated to the Saracens Foundation due to visits to the Sarries frontpage [www.rugbynetwork.net]

Please read and submit articles for publication.


(*) As at October 31, 2018.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
Innings 01 January, 2020 00:36
TT, that is precisely my view of it all. Premiership survival is the all-in-all: faffing around pretending we can manage that alongside a real crack in Europe is only acceptable if there is no risk to the main objective. The numbers rather clearly indicate that survival is by no means more than a 50-50 chance at present. Until Sarries are mathematically certain of survival, nothing else matters.

The bookies are offering 6-1 against Sarries finishing 12th, but IMHO those odds are more of a reflection that they are offering even shorter odds on Irish, Tigers, Wasps and Wuss for the drop.



Innings

Points win matches: tries win hearts and minds.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
MaroonTyke2 01 January, 2020 13:01
Quote:
Sara'sman
An alternative way of assessing our progress is to look at our position if the 35 point deduction is applied evenly over the 22 rounds, at a rate of 1.59 points per game. Here is our season so far:
Round	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
1	5	4	4	4	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	-0.59
2	9	9	6	6	5	5	4	4	4	1.82	1	0
3	14	10	10	9	7	5	5	5	5	4.23	4	4
4	14	14	11	10	10	10	9	8	6.64	6	5	4
5	19	17	15	13	12	12	11	10	9.05	8	5	4
6	20	19	17	16	16	15	13	13	12.45	12	6	4

After the Exeter match we now stand at:
7 24 23 18 18 17 17 17 17 12 11.86 11 6

and needing to average 1.2 pts per game more than the 11th club (and 1.93 more than the 6th club) for the remaining 15 games.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
Innings 01 January, 2020 13:55
Ugo Monye suggests this morning that if Sarries are relegated and Falcons are promoted, PRL will miraculously discover the virtues of immediate ring-fencing. He may be a mediocre match commentator, but I suspect he's flying a kite for someone in this instance.

It all goes to confirm that for me, nothing, not one iota of European prestige, matters more than finishing 11th or better.



Innings

Points win matches: tries win hearts and minds.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
Sarriebone 01 January, 2020 13:58
According to Andy Goode last weekend ringfencing can only happen with the agreement of all 13 teams, can you honestly see Rowe agreeing to it after his comments?

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
Roger G 01 January, 2020 14:52
Monye click-bait?

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
tpr's headmistress 01 January, 2020 16:13
Monye and his Harlequins compatriot Care would be hoping his latest rumour mongering will come to fruition. Andy Goode is no Saracens' fan either.

BBC article 2020 could see Premiership ringfenced

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
Aberavon Wizard 02 January, 2020 19:23
No reason why Sarries should not have a decent crack at 6-7th. You have the squad, you know what the priority is and you can still sneak a European quarter final if McCall plays his hand sensibly. The team have only lost to Exeter and Saints in the league and they lie first and second at the moment, no need to fear many other teams.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
JL904 02 January, 2020 22:01
Wizard, it's not a case of fearing other teams or not, my friend.

We currently sit 18 points adrift of Tiggers - we need 3 x BP wins + 1 x 4pt win to overtake them ... assuming they don't pick up so much as a single LBP meanwhile. We're then halfway through the season.

Every win Leicester pick up means another week playing catch-up, no matter how big a hiding we may give everyone else. If we lose that same week, it pins us back two weeks, not one.

Euro quarters or more is possible (but should be a run out for kids not stars IMHO) - higher than 10th in the Prem is a complete fantasy I'm afraid ... the season simply isn't long enough, and I think the 6N will hurt us, as it has done in the past.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
ninjafez 02 January, 2020 22:51
I think we have to hit 5 point home games and pick up points on the road, Worcester on Saturday is a must 5 points



Ninjafez - supporting Sarries and cleaning their signs since 2006!

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
Innings 03 January, 2020 01:01
PRL to decide on ring-fencing after the season's end? M'Learned Friends would have PRL rubbing their hands, whoever went down.



Innings

Points win matches: tries win hearts and minds.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
JO'G 03 January, 2020 09:10
I can really see teams from 4th to 9th bunching up this season with little or no spread between them. Exeter, Glaws and Saints seem food enough to pull away. Irish and somebody else to be left behind with us to compete at the bottom.

The closer 4 to 9 stay true more chance we have of joining them, but I'm confident our second string are good enough to be competitive. Let's face it, how many other prem teams would fancy getting a losing Bonus point at Thomond park as our 6nations side did

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
boomer! 04 January, 2020 12:52
Quote:
tpr's headmistress
Monye and his Harlequins compatriot Care would be hoping his latest rumour mongering will come to fruition. Andy Goode is no Saracens' fan either.
BBC article 2020 could see Premiership ringfenced

As suggested else where, probably Moyne click bait (although I am also confident Moyne will bang on about it whenever anyone is foolish enough to give him airtime).

We all know the `13 clubs have to agree to it so when would this decision be made?

1) Before the end of season when Tigers and Wasps are at risk?
Unlikely.

2) After end of season?
If Sarries are bottom we wont vote for it.
If anyone else is bottom they wont vote for it.

So a rubbish article by Moyne that is poorly researched.



It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
tpr's headmistress 04 January, 2020 13:58
Monye and Dallaglio drove me made with their commentary last night - biased from Monye (as you would expect). They both droned on and more often than not were wrong.

(Edited due to call him Money - freudian slip.)



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/01/2020 14:00 by tpr's headmistress.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
Convex Hull 04 January, 2020 14:08
I think that BT Sport now do pay-per-view, it looks like a better option than forking out money on a regular basis to listen to people 'with an agenda'. The BBC have first rights to that particularly scam.



Regardez mon visage. Suis-je bovvered?

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
JO'G 04 January, 2020 18:07
As always I watched the match with the sound off.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
David@Sarries 06 January, 2020 01:19
We simply need to put in more performances like yesterday’s. The situation above us would break Google’s Quantum computers in trying to work out all of the computations.

We matched Tigers and got more points than Quins, Wasps and Irish. As the league is so competitive and teams are going to take points off one another. Tigers will suffer more than us when they are without their English players especially George Ford.

We can speculate but our target is simply any position other than 12th.

Re: Our 2019/20 Target
Steve_M 06 January, 2020 05:49
Quote:
boomer!
We all know the `13 clubs have to agree to it so when would this decision be made?
If Sarries are bottom we wont vote for it.
If anyone else is bottom they wont vote for it.

I'm probably missing something obvious here Boomer but why would the team who finishes bottom and is about to be relegated not vote for ringfencing when ringfencing would apply to all PRL clubs so would keep them up ?

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