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Sobering Article
Discussion started by Toomanychiefs (IP Logged), 16 September, 2020 10:59
MESSAGES->author
Toomanychiefs
16 September, 2020 10:59
[www.devonlive.com]

Bad times. no wonder people are quite on the boards.

Debenair
Debenair
16 September, 2020 11:32
Whilst understanding what TR is saying, he is with respect in cloud cuckoo land if he thinks HMG are going to allow 80% crowds in to stadia with the pestilence as finely balanced as it is.
Maybe we will see the game go semi-pro for some years to keep costs down. I agree the whole scenario is very worrying.

ExTeddChief
ExTeddChief
16 September, 2020 11:33
Hell...the Elite Ice HOckey League has chosen to outright cancel their 2020/21 season because they're only allowed limited crowd numbers...these are insane times.

Poking With Sticks
Poking With Sticks
16 September, 2020 12:03
We're probably back to an infection rate similar to that of early February. If that's the case then we know we have to bring that under control within 4 weeks or face the same situation we did back in March. There's no way we can open up more than we currently are. If anything we probably need to scale things back again for now.

Debenair
Debenair
16 September, 2020 13:59
The infection rate doesnít really matter does it, provided hospital admissions and deaths stay low?
Indeed the more of the population have the thing the nearer we get to natural herd immunity, which absent a vaccine is the best hope we have. Of course it would be nice to have an effective track, trace and isolate, but for the moment at least that seems a pious hope.
At least the kids from KCC were observing the rule of 6 when I came ashore on Monday-a tidy group of 12 all cuddled up doing what 16 year olds are wont to do!!!

cornwallchief
cornwallchief
16 September, 2020 14:35
Quote:
Debenair
The infection rate doesnít really matter does it, provided hospital admissions and deaths stay low?
Indeed the more of the population have the thing the nearer we get to natural herd immunity, which absent a vaccine is the best hope we have. Of course it would be nice to have an effective track, trace and isolate, but for the moment at least that seems a pious hope.
At least the kids from KCC were observing the rule of 6 when I came ashore on Monday-a tidy group of 12 all cuddled up doing what 16 year olds are wont to do!!!

Sorry but this view is wrong. The increasing infection rate and with it prevalence inevitably will in the end lead to more hospital admissions and deaths. This might not happen for a few weeks but is certain, unless the disease mutates. Without a vaccine herd immunity is at least a couple of years away. Covid will spread over the winter because the virus particles probably survive longer, more people will be inside and economic pressures mount individually and nationally. Spain's death rate is already increasing as it did after a while in the US southern states. In the current situation the whole of the winter sports events are likely to struggle with crowd numbers and hence the article is sobering for a rugby enthusiast. It is more sobering on a personal level as is shown by the responses to the ''QUIET' thread. Clubs need to find an income stream to replace the massive shortfall and without it, which seems likely, the current structures are not viable. I am desperate to enjoy the next few weeks of at least watching the games partly because of this and am worried re the future.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 16/09/2020 19:30 by cornwallchief.

Poking With Sticks
Poking With Sticks
16 September, 2020 16:44
Just to add, hospital admissions are starting to rise. Any rise in deaths will lag behind that by a couple of weeks. There's very much a feeling that we're at the same situation we were in February, but armed with the knowledge of what will happen if we don't put measures in place.

Jehovas Sandals
Jehovas Sandals
16 September, 2020 17:36
If 10k punters is the minimum Exeter Rugby Club need to break even I fear for the future.
In the current climate I canít see that happening. The Government quoted a figure of 4K I believe as a max for trial/experimental purposes.....a long way off what is required and itís clearly obvious that it would cost the club money to open up the ground with smaller numbers. So realistically how long can a club survive without at the very least breaking even?
Itís a worrying situation and could impact heavily on Proffessional Rugby



I drink and forget stuff!

cornwallchief
cornwallchief
16 September, 2020 18:53
Quote:
Jehovas Sandals
If 10k punters is the minimum Exeter Rugby Club need to break even I fear for the future.
In the current climate I canít see that happening. The Government quoted a figure of 4K I believe as a max for trial/experimental purposes.....a long way off what is required and itís clearly obvious that it would cost the club money to open up the ground with smaller numbers. So realistically how long can a club survive without at the very least breaking even?
Itís a worrying situation and could impact heavily on Professional Rugby
Hi JS. If a vaccine is found and manufactured in sufficient quantity and was available widely in the UK[ a lot of if's] it will be probably late 2021. Owners could then see a future for the 2021/22 season [the season after the next!] and perhaps be able to plan. If there is no vaccine in sight the 2021/22 season may be affected as well - rugby will be loss making on a long term basis with the current model so the professional game as we know it now will collapse. The clubs owners will all know this and some I think are likely to pull the plug if there are no crowds allowed for the next season [ a certainty I think for part of it at least] unless a new revenue stream is miraculously found AND an end in sight - the Vaccine.

plymptonchief
plymptonchief
16 September, 2020 19:47
In view of the foregoing it's a bit disconcerting seeing more contracts being signed?

goss8800
Chief Fire Water
16 September, 2020 19:53
Quote:
plymptonchief
In view of the foregoing it's a bit disconcerting seeing more contracts being signed?

I agree if the club is in trouble why are we signing more players.

MESSAGES->author
Thomas Hawk
16 September, 2020 20:39
Spot on Cornwallchief

Sweden went down the route of herd immunity and as a result has had a higher than average death rate. Even the USA who's handling of Covid has been nothing short of laughable already with a ratio of cases/deaths that is well above any other nation is also seemingly now going for a policy of Herd immunity under President Blatantly Wears a Wig, which will only result in more deaths and as they are no longer properly testing either the true figure may never be known.

This is the primary problem with herd immunity as you need to let people die in order for resistance levels to build up, these are deaths that can be avoided. What it needs is a total lockdown that is strictly enforced with clear and concise messaging to the population about why and what is needed. Under the Herd immunity model in order for the resistance levels to build up people will need to die and even then there is no guarantee that it will be successful. While Sweden opted for this policy, the other Scandinavian countries did not as they all opted for a rapid lockdown which has been more successful in stopping the spread of infection and as a result they have incurred less cases on average with fewer deaths.

Chiefs don't have a backer to fall back on to offset their losses, but TR is right that the club cannot survive if not sustainable, they will need to find another stream of income in order to support themselves that is highly profitable and instant as making a million pounds a month is quite some profit to balance the books.

Personally i'd rather the club didn't force people at the risk of our lives in order to balance the books,
but at the same time I really don't want to see the club go bust. Its a difficult bridge to balance.




In other news I see the club has some new merchandise in the club shop.. Think I might get some of it.

Exeforever
Exeforever
16 September, 2020 22:41
It is unpleasantly ironic that the only club that is solvent under normal circumstances is the most vulnerable in the current climate. Bath, Bristol, Saracens and others have backers for whom the odd million pounds a month is small change.

The only members' club in the league will struggle as a result of not having a mega-wealthy sugar daddy.

However, if/when the whole thing goes to hell in a handcart I hope that Exe have acquired a number of supporters over the years (beyond those of us who watched at the County Ground) who will still come to watch the club when we rejoin Devon Two and start the journey all over again.

cornwallchief
cornwallchief
16 September, 2020 23:15
I do not know whether Exeter is the most vulnerable. There are not many owners, however rich they are will support rugby long term with an unviable business model with no end in sight. At present all is about the next six weeks rugby....... after that I think we will be told more about the extent of rugby's crisis generally, perhaps more particularly the Chiefs. By then it will have become clearer whether any crowds will be allowed at sports events in the near future.

cornwallchief
cornwallchief
17 September, 2020 09:52
Hi Lastofthemohawks,
IMO a good post which I am sure many agree with. Unfortunately an uncontrolled winter Covid disaster might kill 2-400,000 in a few months. Nobody is certain of a figure and it is 'IMO' but we have a vaccine for Flu but even that illness since 2010 is estimated to kill 20 - 60000 every winter. We accept that even though some of those who die are young adults every year [ it affects seriously young adults more than Covid] What do we do? What can we accept? Where is a right balance between crippling the economy v controlling the infection? We will all make different choices as to what is right or wrong. For Rugby however we need the vaccine to work and an extra income flow/bailout to be found urgently. I am 73 and would find it difficult to go to any match any time soon - I had four tickets for this weekend.

ExTeddChief
ExTeddChief
17 September, 2020 10:20
Quote:
Exeforever
It is unpleasantly ironic that the only club that is solvent under normal circumstances is the most vulnerable in the current climate. Bath, Bristol, Saracens and others have backers for whom the odd million pounds a month is small change.
The only members' club in the league will struggle as a result of not having a mega-wealthy sugar daddy.

However, if/when the whole thing goes to hell in a handcart I hope that Exe have acquired a number of supporters over the years (beyond those of us who watched at the County Ground) who will still come to watch the club when we rejoin Devon Two and start the journey all over again.

We have a potential sugar Daddy in Rowe who could, given these extreme circumstances have thrown some SW Comms money at it. In the meantime...I don't know the technicalities of starting over and an Exeter team in Devon Two will have less of a following than we do currently as the biggest team in Devon and Cornwall but I follow Exe out of family tradition rather than glory so I'd certainly follow a phoenix team.

MESSAGES->author
Tribester
17 September, 2020 13:01
Quote:
Thomas Hawk
Spot on Cornwallchief
Sweden went down the route of herd immunity and as a result has had a higher than average death rate. Even the USA who's handling of Covid has been nothing short of laughable already with a ratio of cases/deaths that is well above any other nation is also seemingly now going for a policy of Herd immunity under President Blatantly Wears a Wig, which will only result in more deaths and as they are no longer properly testing either the true figure may never be known.

Leaving the rugby aside for a minute, whilst we may look on in horror at how some Americans are apparently behaving during this pandemic, the actual figures don't back it up.
The US has a death per million of population rate, a bit lower than the UK. Sweden with it's different standard of living and population density, has a death rate lower again.

The US figures get the headlines, because the numbers are huge, but their actual population is massive, but as a percentage, they're doing better than we are.

And we certainly cannot criticise on the subject of testing.

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/50352353917_d27d208eef_z.jpg



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 17/09/2020 13:08 by Tribester.

OldMarovian
OldMarovian
17 September, 2020 13:55
Quote:
Debenair
At least the kids from KCC were observing the rule of 6 when I came ashore on Monday-a tidy group of 12 all cuddled up doing what 16 year olds are wont to do!!!

In Devon I suspect that's mauling (Sm128)

MESSAGES->author
Thomas Hawk
17 September, 2020 20:12
Quote:
Tribester
Leaving the rugby aside for a minute, whilst we may look on in horror at how some Americans are apparently behaving during this pandemic, the actual figures don't back it up.
The US has a death per million of population rate, a bit lower than the UK. Sweden with it's different standard of living and population density, has a death rate lower again.

The US figures get the headlines, because the numbers are huge, but their actual population is massive, but as a percentage, they're doing better than we are.

And we certainly cannot criticise on the subject of testing.

Certainly agree that we cannot criticise on the subject of testing.

As you observe population differences explain the USA's figure is smaller than our own, but to point to this figure alone does not really tell the whole story, hence why the full context is required, such as total cases and total deaths. This is why only pointing to one figure isn't really an accurate metric to point to as a lone figure for comparison.

I brought up Sweden as they have openly opted for a herd immunity model and as a result have had 87,000 confirmed cases with over 5,000 deaths compared to their direct neighbour Norway who went into a total lockdown and had 12,000 cases with only 200 deaths. While population density would be a factor for consideration and I don't have their either nations statistics for this, I doubt there would be much difference between the two.

https://i.gyazo.com/04b25eb134a370818862255c96ef1f7b.png

Figures from [virusncov.com]

I only believe that nations who have opted for a Herd Immunity model have as a result incurred more infections and more deaths as a result in the short term.

Apologies to JS if this is getting a little off topic



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 17/09/2020 20:12 by Thomas Hawk.

MESSAGES->author
DumnoniiNomad
18 September, 2020 13:51
Deleted post sent in error



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 18/09/2020 13:54 by DumnoniiNomad.


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