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Re: Our 2019/20 Target
Posted by: Duncan Keene
Date: 07/01/2020 20:01
Bonus points are critical this season. There's 14 TBP left at stake (trying unrealistically to ignore any LBP as we don't want to be in that position). At today's run rate of 50% (4 from 8), 7 is the equivalent of nearly 2 wins. We have averaged 13 over the last 5 seasons, so are behind that average at the moment. We should look for more. Every point counts, particularly as it looks like being another tightly bunched season. The days of a London Welsh clear bottom runner are long gone.
Assuming we win our normal level of 16 games a season, that should give us another 10 wins this year, so the four losses must pick up at least 1 LBP each game.

I think the crucial difference this season is that in previous years we have only concentrated on reaching the playoffs and preferably top two. This has been reflected in our team selections in the closing stages of the season when we had already secured a semi-final slot.

This season is different and we will be going all out to win all our games as if we were chasing pole position with team selections to match. I would therefore hope we can do better than 16 wins in those circumstances.

As you say TBPs will be critical this season.

I think this is a really crucial point. Which is why i keep just looking at what the absolute maximum points you can get is (currently 63) and considering that possible right until it doesn't happen. I'd certainly put money on you getting at least 8 x 5 point wins out of the 9 games after the six nations.

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