By Saint Sherlock
April 26 2002
The Master Statistician of Baker Street returns with his own particular brand of rugby forensic science or as we put it, The Zurich Premiership for Rugby Stats Serial Anoraks. Its interesting stuff if you're that way inclined......
FORENSIC SCIENCE
(The Zurich Premiership for Stats Serail Anoraks)
We are nearly at the end of the league season, so it is a good time to grab our scalpels and lancets and probe deep into the underbelly of the Premiership to see what surprises are concealed.
Home and Away
Every true fan knows the Premiership tables like the back of his hand. So let's look at the tables from another angle. We will see how the league tables look based on each team's Home and Away records. "Actual Position" shows each team's current Premiership position.
At home, Bath look safe but the Saints are struggling!
If only Sale could reproduce Gloucester's home form! If only Gloucester could play like Sale away!
Bonus Points
Do they make a big difference? No, not at all. Here's the table with the bonus points stripped out, and it closely resembles the current Premiership.
Leicester and Gloucester have earned 9 bonus points each. Quins are next with 8 points. At the bottom of the bonus point pile comes Newcastle, with only 3 points earned.
Points Scored and Conceded
Now we'll take a look at the average points scored and conceded per game
Here's Bath's problem in a nutshell. They simply cannot score points. Even their nearest rivals score more than a try per game over the average Bath tally.
The defensive record provides a crumb of comfort for Bath, whilst Leeds and Saracens leak points like sieves. If you like a high scoring game, head for Bristol where the average score is 24 - 26.
Tries Scored and Conceded
Who are the teams that score the tries? And whose defences are the toughest to batter down? Here's the average number of tries scored and conceded per game.
Over three tries every game means that Leicester gain regular bonus points. But Bath's inability to score tries makes them favourites for the drop.
The best defences concede very little these days. Leicester are virtually watertight, but any relegation candidates due to face the top four defences can scarcely hope for a win, let alone a precious bonus point.
Now we know who the prolific try scorers are, we can take a look at each team to see what percentage of their total points scored come exclusively from tries.
Earlier in the season, Sale hit a heady 58%. But the big shock this season is to see Wasps and Bath languishing at the foot of the table. Last year, Wasps scored 48% of their points through tries and Bath were expected to have the most potent back line in the country.
Who Scores The Tries?
Traditionally, it was the task of the forwards to do the donkeywork, whilst the backs ran in the tries. So let's look at the percentage of tries scored by the forwards and the backs.
The tradition continues at the Rec, where Bath's struggling pack has only managed two tries this season. But at the Majdeski, the Irish backs stand back as their forwards steal their thunder.
Now here's a stunning statistic for you trivia fans. Twenty-one different London Irish players have scored a try in the Premiership this season. And thirteen of them are forwards.
The same number, twenty-one, have scored for Leicester, whilst Gloucester's tally is twenty. At the other end, only eleven players have scored for Newcastle and thirteen for Northampton.
And here are the men who get the most tries:
This is an outstanding performance by Scarborough, topping the list with one of the less prolific teams.
Not surprisingly, the backs are wingers or full backs, but it is a tribute to the modern forward's mobility that three of the five top-scoring forwards are in the front five.
The Magic Boots
Converting tries for the two extra points is what often brings a close victory; so let's see who has the best conversion rates.
Wilko reigns supreme, but Braam van Straaten and Felipe Contepomi are pushing him hard. There's work to be done at the foot of the table, where the likes of Everitt, Grayson, Hodgson and Burke would expect a better result.
And food for thought at Bath; they not only score less tries than anyone else, but also they fail to convert more than half of them!
Let's look at penalties next. Here's a table of teams who have kicked the most penalties. Remember I said "kicked", not "awarded". But I guess it is probably a good indicator of the number of penalties awarded.
Last year, Northampton were top of this table. No doubt that referees across the country will have missed Matt Dawson's advice and his return from injury should drive the Saints back up the table.
Earning Their Wages
Finally, let's meet the real heroes. These are the players who, through their total points-scoring feats, both kicks and tries, make the biggest contribution to their teams. Here we see their individual percentage contribution to their team's total points.
Last year, none of these stars were in contention. Last year's heroes were Wilkinson, Grayson and Logan, but this season they are bobbing along behind.
That's all for now, forensic science freaks. We'll wrap up the season in due course.
