By Mark H
August 27 2003

Much as we’d all like it to happen, Saints are not going to win the Zurich this season. No, I’m lying, but it’s not going to happen without an awful lot of things going in our favour.Crazily (as it robs us of potentially five players), the structure of the season is spot on for Saints. There will be 13 of the 22 games in which Smudger will not be able to play his absolute full strength side, and granted, every other club is in the same boat. During those 13 games, we play every team once, and Sale and Saracens twice, both Sarries games falling during the Six Nations. However, unlike other teams, there is only one position in which we look light of cover.

Steve Thompson will be a big hole to fill, and it’s up to Dan Richmond and Matt Miles to do so. We know what Dan can do - on his day, there are some supporters who would prefer him to be in the starting XV - but this is the first real sustained run that he will get in the side. As for Miles, his first team experience is limited to the twenty minutes in Biarritz, in which he looked competent cover, but his performances for the Wanderers have shown a great deal of promise. If there were to be an injury to Richmond, however, he would be asked serious questions at an early stage of his career. We know that he’s up to it, but that said, I’m sure that this is a worst case scenario that we hope will not occur.

What about our other internationals? Why won’t we miss them? Well, no disrespect to them, but there’s pretty good cover there. In the front row, Renaud Peillard comes with a big reputation and is regarded by better judges than me as one of the best French props. At half back, Daws and Grays are replaced by a new combination - Sharky and Shane - and even looking beyond them, Johnny Howard will be pushing for a start whilst there is the option of either Ben Russell, James Brooks or Bruce Reihana in the number ten shirt. I would expect, however, to see Brucie on the wing, with any one of Brooks, Ripol and Sleightholme on the other.

So we’ve got international cover - but it’s not just there. Every position in the team now has competition, and when you look at the squad, there’s talent oozing out of it:-

Front Rows - Peillard, Morris, Sturgess, Budgen, Richmond, Miles (with Smith and Thompson to return)

Back Five - Lord, Phillips, Hunter, Williams, Connors, Pountney, Fox, Seely, Soden, Blowers.

Half Backs - Howard, Robinson, Drahm, Russell (with Dawson and Grayson to return)

Backs - Reihana, Leslie, Hyndman, Tucker, Beal, Ripol, Sleightholme, Brooks (with Cohen to return)

So with that squad, who’s to stop the charge to the title? It’s a foregone conclusion, right?

Wrong. What infuriates us all most about the Saints? Probably the inconsistency, the way we can blow Sale away the week after surrendering to Newcastle, the way we can battle past Biarritz in a superb team performance after looking like fifteen strangers against London Irish. We’re back to those thirteen games again.

Much will depend on the first half of the season, where every team will be thinking that if they’re not there or thereabouts, then it’s a long road back. Looking brutally honestly at the first six games, there is a case for saying that if there aren’t five wins on the board then forget about championships. Sale in the first game will provide the toughest of tests, especially being in front of their “new” supporters - but that can be turned round to be an advantage. Bath have a new team, but need time to blend in. Wasps will be shorn of so many high quality players in key positions that it’s bound to affect them. Rotherham are up and will be wanting to stay there, but appear, like London Irish, to be a team lacking stars and that “jump out and bite you” quality. Newcastle, although possessing more weapons than last year and having bedded in the likes of Andrews and Mayerhofler, may find the potential loss of their outstanding young talent in Walder and Noon too much to replace. And there’s some bloke called Jonny as well - apparently he’s quite a good kicker and isn’t afraid to tackle, supposedly.

Going on from there comes the key week in the first half. Leicester away and Gloucester home are tough enough in normal circumstances, let alone in a World Cup year, and both matches look too close to call at this early stage. Quins and Leeds (away and home) won’t be mugs either, to bring the first part of the season to a close.

So how many wins? Without wishing to sound like a bad Steps song, 5, 6, 7, 8? I would hope for no less than seven. As for bonus points, win the games and they will come. I’d rather win than lose trying for a fourth try, as at Kingston Park last season, and to put that result in perspective, had the win been secured, then it would only have been a matter of one more try against either Falcons or Leeds and Wasps would have been coming to FG for the play-off, and it could have been Saints with a big shiny trophy.

Sorry, I forgot - we’ve already won one of those this season…

So the squad’s right, and the fixture list is advantageous, what about the self-belief? To ultimately win the championship, you have to win the biggest game. Saints have done that - once. Yes, it is about the best team on the day, as Gloucester found out last season, and as Saints themselves found out in the Powergen final, but you have to wonder sometimes whether a losing team - and this can be any losing team - can psyche themselves out of the victory because they believe their opposition are unbeatable. Look up the road at the Welford Road aura - for four and a half years no-one really got close to beating them, and the longer the unbeaten run went on, the more that was made of it.

Now ask any Tigers fan whether they honestly thought the run would be broken last season, and you’d more than likely get a no. They believed their players could - would - win every game. Now look at the stats. They couldn’t win away from home for weeks, including a loss to a Bristol team a man down after 3 minutes. Their home results featured a 5 point win over Gloucester, a 3 point win over Wasps, and a 2 point win over Bath. And then the run ended, against a team who didn’t believe that Tigers were unbeatable, with supporters who went there expecting to win. You know that team, you watch them every week. Transfer that single match belief to a season, and things start to look up. There is a fine line between belief and cockiness - cross it and you come out with egg on your face and dreams shattered - but I believe that Saints have the best team in the league, it just needs approximately 35 key men to believe that as well. The fact that a trophy is already in the cabinet should do the confidence and belief of everyone at the club the world of good.

Can we have a Fortress Franklins please?

It’s also year two of Smudger’s three year plan. In theory then, we should be getting to play-offs and cup finals, without necessarily winning them. Hang on, we did that last season…does that mean that we do it again, or take the step up. I just get a feeling that third place, a cup final defeat, and a European quarter-final won’t be good enough this time round though, for club or supporters. Expectation is higher. As long as expectation doesn’t become a burden, it looks rosy. If it becomes a burden, then we’ll be looking at 9,000 crowds rather than sell-outs, and the casual supporter will look elsewhere for his treats. We need to convince them that Northampton is not a football town, but a rugby one.

Rugby is nothing without opposition though, and the championship looks to be one of the best ones for years this season. The Leicester aura is broken (and how), Glaws have something to prove, Sale are in the same position as Saints, just needing to make the final step up from good team to trophy winners, and Wasps have the said trophy to defend. Of these four teams (and I can’t see the top three being made up on anyone from outside Saints and this group), I would expect Gloucester to be the biggest threat.

Glaws did it all last season but win the final game. They are losing very few players to the World Cup, and of those that are likely to go, Vickery, Woodman and Simpson-Daniel missed huge chunks of last season anyway. They’ll be anxious to get off to a good start, to avoid the inevitable “how will the final affect them” questions.

Wasps look to have one of the trickier tasks to defend their title. With potentially Dallaglio, Shaw, Lewsey, Worsley, King, Logan and Abbott all in Aus, their replacements will have to play well to keep them in touch. Granted, Wasps won the title from Christmas last season and cannot be counted out, but they may have to do it the difficult way this time around, coming from third place.

Sale have recruited wisely, and look to be losing least players of the major challengers. It remains to be seen how well they settle in their new home, but the home team hasn’t fared too well at Edgeley Park over the last two seasons, and I’d hope that Sale will continue the trend until 13th September. They’re still good enough to end up fourth, and will run Wasps close for the third spot.

Leicester. Stop laughing. I’ll say it now before it becomes a cliché - they are missing so many players that it’s really hitting them hard (so if you’re reading this Lardy, remember to give me credit). The much vaunted youth system will be tested to the full, but Tigers will eventually have to rebuild because Johnson, Back, Kronfeld and co. cannot go on forever. It would be interesting to know what Deano’s expectations - not hopes - are for this season. I can’t see them finishing above fifth, and they could be in the bottom half at the end of the World Cup.

Leeds won’t be as big a surprise as last season, but I’d still expect them to be in the top half. My shock team of the season are Newcastle, because I thought that they were the worst team I saw Saints play last year (and I expect to be beaten up for that), but they have made some interesting signings, and blending these with the new faces of last season will give them a better overall look. The return of Dave Walder from his long injury lay-off will be like signing a new player as well, and they won’t be that far away from Leeds.

And shock horror, Bath will also improve - but when you’ve bought half the western world, then you should be able to find fifteen decent players! They will miss Danny the psycho scrumcap eater during the World Cup, but he will be a big influence when he returns, and any team with Balshaw, Tindall and Catt can’t struggle again surely?

Quins, Irish and Sarries all look much of a muchness. Quins’ biggest influence seems to be Mark Evans, the man who defines “belief in his team”, even if his team then try and betray that. Irish will miss Venter, if only for his sheer stubbornness, but they’ve got the players there who on their day can beat anyone - they just don’t. Sarries will do well to finish out of the bottom two, given the total uncertainty they have suffered over the summer. Taine Randell will be a great signing for them, and his partnership with Richard Hill will be one of the great sights of the season - shame we won’t see them in tandem against Saints.

And finally, poor old Rotherham. Given the fact that they have been dumped on from a great height over the past two seasons, I would love them to stay up, particularly as I’m expecting Worcester to be at the top of the first division. Unfortunately, I can’t see it, but they will get the best reception of any visiting team to FG all season, mainly due to a man in a number 13 shirt who many feel was unlucky not to be still resident in Northampton. Jorgy, you’re allowed to score one try, as long as Saints win.

So we’ve got the players, the fixture list is helpful, we’ve got the plan, we’ve got the belief, we know the opposition. So what else do we need?

Luck.

Lander awarding us a penalty try in the last minute of the championship final to win the game. OK, not the way I would like to win it, but I’d take it. The little things just have to go Saints way, like injuries, other results, missed penalties. Get lucky and some silver polish may come in handy…

Be skilful. Be ready. Be lucky. Believe.

Be Saints.


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