By Wellsaint/Come in Number 10
November 14 2003

It's time for the excitement of the Cup. Will there be any shocks? Who will be in the hat for the next round? And will Wellsaint and Come In Number 10 EVER have a winning week again? All this, and much less, in this week's exciting instalment of the never to be trusted betting guide.... Busy weekend, eight Powergen Cup ties and the small matter of the World Cup semi-finals to look at.

Let's begin with the Cup.

Pertemp Bees v Wakefield: Bees beat Wakefield 23-20 at home in the league and I would expect Bees to come out on top again. CiNo10 has Bees to win by 15; I hadn't even thought of a margin, to be honest - I would have thought by less, 8 to 10.

Bristol v Wasps: Wasps should know too much for Bristol. CiNo10 thinks Wasps by 25; but again I think this could be overoptimistic - and I'd say a victory of 12-15 would be around the mark.

Rotherham v Newcastle: Different venue, same result. Pity for Roth; it would be nice for them to get a good run going in the cup. They
may surprise us all and pull it out of the bag but CiNo10's having none of it, and fancies Newcastle by 30; again, more cautiously, I'd say
by around 22.

Penzance and Newlyn v Saracens: If there is to be a shock, this could be it. P and N are finding life tough in Div 1 but Sarries aren't setting the world on fire and can't be looking forward to a trip to the Wild West. CiNo10 thinks P and N could sneak this by three; and - y'know what - I think he could be right! At any rate, if Sarries are giving up silly points on the handicap P and N could be well worth a punt.

Leeds v Harlequins: Quins won the corresponding league fixture by 14 points, and I think they'll win again, although the margin of victory is likely to be closer to 7 than 14. Most bookies have this game as "scratch" (i.e. no points start to either team) - on that basis, I play Quins. CiNo10 disagrees (if we agreed all the time it'd be boring!) and has Leeds to win by five.

Bath v Saints: Another trip to the Rec (I'd settle for last year's scoreline, anyone else?!) The news that Shane Drahm is allowed to play
after having his ban overturned will be a major boost to Saints' chances in what will surely be a stern test. Bath are having a tremendous season
and if anyone thought the bubble had burst with the loss at Newcastle, they should note last weekend's result where they went to Castle Grim and came back with the points! CinNo10 thinks Bath by eight or more - and, before Drahm was in the side (assuming he starts) I would have concurred. Now - well, I'm not as pessimistic as I was. It will be tight - but I fear Bath will still edge it by four points. (Note: I have been wrong this season - just once or twice....)

Gloucester v London Irish: A 1.55 kick off and live on Grandstand to boot, this could be another "shock" in the making. I think Irish could win this, if only narrowly. CiNo10 says that if Irish play like they did against us, he would agree. The angle on this game is that I think the bookies will make Gloucester favourites by a fair margin (they were 7 point favs to beat Bath last week for example, so I can't see the
line being any less.) Irish with a trys' start? Got to be worth a go.

Leicester v Sale: Sale won the corresponding league game by six but I think the result and the margin could be reversed as Tigers win by six - CinNo10 agrees and has Leicester to win by 7.

There are no details of handicap lines, bar the Leeds - Quins game.

I would be looking at the best bets being:

Irish receiving a start of 7 or more at Glos.

Penzance and Newlyn receiving a shedload at home to Sarries.

Quins off scratch against Leeds.

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WORLD CUP SEMI FINAL 1

New zealand v Australia

Recommendation: New Zealand to give up the 10 points or so on the handicap - but be sure to shop around as some bookies are no longer
10/11 NZ.

WORLD CUP SEMI FINAL 2

France v England

Recommendation: Don't bet?! No, at the prices quoted, France getting a six point start would be the recommendation. This is too much a 50-50
call to recommend England giving up six. But I honestly think this is the hardest game I've tried to call in all the time I've done this column. But as to whether I'm prepared to play? I truly, truly don't know.

It promises to be an exciting weekend of rugby.

For those of you travelling to Bath, safe journey, see you in the Boater beforehand (mine's an AG, thanks for asking)

COME ON ENGLAND AND COME ON YOU SAINTS!!!!


Wellsaint and Come In Number 10