By Mark H
December 2 2003

From domestic matters to those with a European flavour. Yes, the Heineken Cup is back, and for the fifth season in succession, Saints go into it with a chance of winning it. I’ll look at the trip to Stradey later in the week but thought that I’d cast the net a bit further to begin with. So lets start with a look around the other groups and try (probably unsuccessfully) to pick out just where the quarter-finalists are going to come from.

There’s two main changes this season, the first being that rather than two points for a win and that’s it, the ERC have decided to introduce the ZP system of four points for a win and the subsequent bonus points. The other change is the television coverage moving to Sky, so no more waiting for Eurosport, the BBC, RTE and various French channels to sort out their TV schedules. Instead, we’re waiting for Sky to sort theirs out…

It does mean that up to five matches will be shown live each weekend, so we’ll get to see a lot more teams having coverage. That said, Saints are on once in the first four rounds - a strange decision given that it would appear that we are in one of the tighter groups. Still, given that we have only featured on Sky once in eleven rounds of the ZP, is it any wonder?

Right, onto the more serious stuff.

Pool One - Stage Francais, Leicester, Ulster, Gwent Dragons

Ouch. Might as well start with the hardest one to call first. Stade won the French Championship last season, and despite losing both Diego Dominguez and Fabian Galthie to retirement, they’ve brought in both of the Bergamasco brothers, Argentinian full back Juan Hernandez, David Skrela, and Gus Pichot amongst others. They’ve also brought in Ian Vass, and we know something about him. What price Vassy going down the blindside at Welford Road in late January to score the try that knocks the Tigers out?

We know the problems the Tiggs have had. It may be to their advantage that their first game is in Paris, because no team in the whole competition will want to lose their first home game, and it will give the World Cup returnees a chance to blend back in with the pressure being off (relatively) in that they will not be expected to get a result on day one. If they do, then the bandwagon may well be rolling again.

Ulster have their proud home record to protect, and indeed are three points clear at the top of the Celtic League going into the competition, and are also in the final of the Celtic Cup. Good season so far then, but only six points behind them are the Gwent Dragons, the other team in this trickiest of pools. For the Dragons to be going so well with so much uncertainty in the background is a great credit to them, but this merger between Newport and Ebbw Vale looks to be the Welsh region most in danger of reverting back to being one club again.

In brief - The home wins to be vital, but Ulster’s home record to go, and the Dragons to finish bottom of the group. Stade Francais to edge Tigers into second place via bonus points and be the only qualifiers from this group.

Pool Two - Leeds, Neath/Swansea Ospreys, Edinburgh, Toulouse

Leeds couldn’t have asked for a much better draw, in my opinion. They won’t win the group, as Toulouse appear to be too strong and will probably win all six games, but the Tykes do score a lot of tries, and if they can put four results together, can get out of this pool as one of the two runners up. Toulouse will defend their crown vigorously, and have enough nous and class about them to come through the pool with ease, and set up a home quarter final (anyone fancy Toulouse over Easter weekend?).

The Ospreys have won four of their nine Celtic League games so far this season, but are currently down in ninth position, and will need to improve to hope to qualify. Edinburgh are only four points better off, and have never really covered themselves in glory in the European Cup. Their coach, Frank Hadden, believes though that they can surprise the champions in their first game on Sunday, having played them twice in last season’s competition.

In brief - Toulouse with six wins out of six, the other three teams to cancel each other out.

Pool Three - Sale, Cardiff, Leinster, Biarritz

The reward for Sale fans for watching their team blow up at the end of last season? Trips to Cardiff, Dublin, and Biarritz. Sometimes life just ain’t fair. Having been to both Biarritz and Stockport, I know where I’d rather be, and paddling in the Atlantic is probably a bit safer than paddling in the Mersey. This pool will probably be the most attractive of all six, as three of the teams will be throwing the ball about whilst the fourth, going on their games against Saints last season, will be battling to stem the tide. There are a number of meetings between familiar sides; Biarritz and Cardiff were in our group last time around, and Biarritz went on to meet Leinster in the quarter final at Lansdowne Road, and nearly caused a major upset. The quality runs through the pool, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see this being one of the tighter ones.

It’s also had the biggest error before the competition even starts, with Felipe Contepomi not being able to be registered for Leinster after a case of “We thought you had them” over his registration papers between Leinster and the IRFU. Leinster are playing all of their home games at Lansdowne Road this season rather than at Donnybrook, to try and get more people in. Cardiff will want to perform better than their whitewash last time around, and will surely concede less than seventy points when they go to France this time around. That said, they aren’t setting the world alight again this season.

In brief - Leinster to win the group, Biarritz and Sale to be disappointed in the race for the quarters.

Pool Five - Munster, Gloucester, Bourgoin, Treviso

No prizes for guessing where most of the focus will be here. It’s a cliché to say that the good folks of Limerick are waiting to welcome the Cherry and Whites to town again (and especially their fly half), but I certainly will be parked in front of a television on 17th January, exactly one year on from that 33-6 victory that turned the pool completely upside down, to see if the Munstermen can do it again. Munster and Gloucester don’t need that much introduction to each other, and with Bourgoin having the bonus of ex-Glaws coach Phillippe Saint-Andre in charge, all three of the main players in this pool know something about each other. Bourgoin also got to the final of the cup competition that was brought in during the World Cup, and were only pipped for a quarter-final spot in last season Heineken Cup by the Biarritz try blitz.

Treviso look to be and, frankly, will be the whipping boys of the group, but their coach is going about it the right way, saying that the only way for them to improve is to be in a difficult pool, so that they can test their progress.

In brief - Munster to win the group; Gloucester to qualify in second place.

Pool Six - Wasps, Perpignan, Calvisano, Celtic Warriors

If I were to list the number of players that Perpignan have signed since losing that windswept final in Dublin, I’d miss Friday night’s game. Suffice to say that they are really trying to make a push for both the French championship and the European Cup this time around. As a reward for winning the Zurich final, Wasps would have hoped for an easier draw than this. That said, the Pests should get out of this group, and will be one of the big players if they manage to get to the quarter finals.

Calvisano managed to win a game last time around, beating Neath, but will do well this time out to squeeze anything more than bonus points. Celtic Warriors, on the other hand, could well be the spanner in the group. The merger of Bridgend and Pontypridd may well not be performing in the Celtic League so far, but Bridgend were Welsh champions last season, and any team with Neil Jenkins in knows that they have someone who will take advantage of any penalties that are given away.

In brief - Wasps to take the pool, Perpignan to disappoint behind the Warriors.

Which just leaves us with:-

Pool Four - Llanelli, Agen, Borders, Saints

Welsh top seeds, French fourth seeds, Scottish third seeds, and England’s third best team from last season. It would be fair to say that there are more straightforward pools to get out of, but it just seems to sum up Saints’ luck with the draw in this competition. Ever since we won the cup, the ERC draw seems to have had it in for us…you sometimes wonder even if we won the competition again, the “rules” would change and we’d miss out on the Italian sides.

There’ll be more on the Welsh challenge in the match preview, but suffice to say they are deservedly the top seeds, being currently second in the Celtic League. Not bad considering that the Welsh districts were drawn out at random by the WRU to dictate their seedings. They may also feel that there’s a score to settle after the semi-final in 2000. The Borders are in their first season in the main European competition, and some of their Saintly old boys, namely Craig Moir, Andy Rennick, Kelvin Todd, and Gregor Townsend (not forgetting his erstwhile invisible friend). They’ve been struggling in the Celtic League this season, but you may remember that Edinburgh weren’t exactly racing along in 2000/2001, but still managed to beat us twice.

Agen are back in Europe after being banned for throwing a match against Ebbw Vale, where they needed to lose by eight tries to get knocked out so that they could concentrate on the French championship. In the two years that they’ve been away, they were beaten in the semi-final last year, but were denied in extra time in the final in 2001/2002 by Biarritz, and can rightly be acknowledged as one of the best sides in France. Led by Jean-Jacques Crenca, they will be a difficult unit to overcome in the Stade Armandie.

And then there’s us, and if anyone can tell me how we will get on…

In brief - Three teams (not the Scots) with four wins each, bonus points to decide the group winner and runner up with both to qualify. At the moment, I’d take Saints to just edge Llanelli.

By my reckoning, that should make the quarter finals look like:-

1 Toulouse v 8 Llanelli
2 Wasps v 7 Gloucester
3 Munster v 6 Saints
4 Leinster v 5 Stade Francais

Anyone for a Saints- Toulouse final? My personal dib at the moment will be Munster to beat Les Toulousain come 22nd May.