By OSB
December 3 2003

Some of you know that I committed my speculations to cyberspace in the summer and part of what I need to do is review Beginning with the front row: we were desperate to see the extent to which M. Peillard would discomfort the tight heads of the ZP. He already had some impressive reviews in his dealings with Phil Vickery. Unfortunately, a series of leg injuries and now a career threatening neck injury have meant he hasn't been, nor will be, a factor.

Ben Sturgess has coped very well with both workload and learning curve but it wasn't until we saw Tam back that we saw what we had been missing. Chris Budgen has done more than his fair share on the tight-head side. Apart from Renaud's retirement the disappointment for me is that Robbie Morris has not emerged as more of a force. I know he is still young but it is all about being ready to take your chance when its presented. I really hope this is all to do with injuries he's been carrying rather than a real lack in progress.

Dan Richmond has brought a lot of honest endeavour to his position without getting many plaudits or runs in the MoM Stakes.

In the second row Matt Lord has continued to shine. If there's a thorn in the opposition's side, Lordy, Lordy put it there. It's disappointing again to see injury preventing us from fielding the strongest side we could. While Rob Hunter has done admirably in place of Steve Williams, I doubt if he's caused many sleepless nights amongst the ranks of ZP lock forwards. The problems with our line out have been much discussed and I still come down firmly on the there-are-too-many-moving-parts side of the argument. A six-man line gives us (at least) three jumping options and at least six throwing options with minimal movement. Even standing relatively still we should be able to disguise which options are in play, leaving the precision of the throw and the timing of the launch as the last two variables over which we have control.

In discussing all of these players, I haven't yet mentioned anyone who is going to feature high as a ball carrier in the Opta Stats. This lack of a ball-carrying forward has caused the non-selection of Grant Seely, a man who carries well, to puzzle me greatly. When Wally returns, so does our main ball carrier in the forwards.

An aside here; we have heard time and again how we have coughed up tries from turnover ball. I'd like to offer a theory which may help to explain why that may be the case. It goes along the lines that when you break the gain line close to the (general term) ruck, you have a greater potential advantage than if you break it wider out. Forwards travelling backwards have twice the distance to travel when going backwards to defend a drive through channel one and the attacking side gives them no time to settle.

Once the ball is moved wide, the advantages to the attacker of crossing the gain line by a metre or two are small (you're doing it looking for the vast acres of space not a narrow advantage) as, say, the back rows both have about 25 metres to cover and approach from approximately the same angle.

As we have had no significant ball carrier in the forwards, the vast majority of the ball carrying has been done by the back line in middle to wide areas. If these guys get turned over or are sloppy we are more likely to concede possession and tries. This isn't to suggest our backs are any worse than anybody else's in this respect just that they are being asked to carry more ball in more dangerous areas.

We have coped well with another long-term injury, Budge Pountney, but have not been able to dominate the breakdown the way we can when Budge is leading the charge. Andrew Blowers has been immense, Foxy has continued his no-nonsense progress but we are definitely short of our best without Budge.

At half-back, we have not missed Paul Grayson at all. It may be a very difficult season for our Grays - feted for his part in the RWC triumph but having to wait his turn for the excellent Shane Drahm to be rested or injured before he can don the BG&G. Drahm may be leading the kicking charts but there is far more to his game than his boot.

The scrum halves have improved since the beginning of the season. Johnny Howard had arguably his best game against the Tykes; similarly, Sharky Robinson had a stormer against Gloucester. I love the speed of Howard's break - reminiscent of Gus Pichot - leave the back row for dead then pick a gap to attack. Once he can get some consistency to his delivery (he has a very good pass but doesn't always produce it), commentators other than us will start to take notice of just how classy he is.

Sharky has been solid if unspectacular - a good operator around the fringes. It will be interesting to understand the pecking order once we have three fit scrum halves available.

I have been surprised at the number of games, or at least, starts that John Leslie has missed this season. I don't think that is a coincidence that our defence is not perceived as strong as it was last season. This is not a criticism of Chris Hyndman who is a crunching tackler or Mark Tucker whose defensive abilities have improved remarkably since he came into the first team squad. No, it is to do with organisation - having the right numbers on the right sides, the right match-ups in the line.

I disagree with the poster who reckons that the defence is built from the back. It isn't, it's built from what you could term the "front three". Not the hooker and his props but the inside centre and one either side of him. These are the guys who flirt with all the offside lines imagineable to try and prevent an attack gaining momentum. It's Leslie's marshalling of this aspect of our play that led to our "meanest defence" title last year and it's a factor that's missing from our play this time round. If we don't get that right, the cover defence isn't set for the initial line break and our deep defence is left in a bit of a pickle as the opposition can attack it with numbers and options.

Early season opponents went for Shane, the new boy in the defence and lightweight when compared with Leslie, Sleightholme and Reihana. As we have addressed that problem, gaps keep popping up elsewhere. This and our turnover problem are the main reasons for what has become a leaky defence. Whether we will ever rescale the heights of meanness with the current personnel is open to debate.

While we are porous, we need to keep scoring regularly - a job we have accomplished remarkably well given the relative lack of go-forward around the forward exchanges. Even when we get a balanced share of possession the ratio of "good attacking possession" is on the low side. The abilities of Drahm and Reihana to convert this into try-scoring opportunities have been a wonder and a revelation. The mix and match components back three have all been on the score-sheet regularly and this is reflected in our league position.

Back in the summer, I said that we should be in the league table round about where we finished in last year's table. Sinking from second to fourth over last weekend means we are definitely within touching distance of last season's third spot. Compared with last year's results we are down by losses away from home to Bath and Harlequins and up by an away draw at Sale and a win against Gloucester. To maintain our position in the second part of the season we need to make up a bit of ground. We need to beat the Tigs before Christmas and should be targeting points at London Irish and Leeds - easier said than done. Getting the double over Saracens would be a good way of furthering our ambitions, too.

All in all, we are unlikely to finish top of the pile in the regular season unless Bath collapse, Wasps become ordinary and nobody comes out of the pack behind us. But we are in with a very real chance of being in the final three and having a crack at the title. You can be sure that the coaching team are working on any weaknesses that we have spotted and some that we haven't. Apart from Steve Thompson, none of the returning players covers an area where we note our most obvious weaknesses. So sit tight, hang on to your breakfast - the rollercoaster is about to take another dramatic turn.


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