By Wellsaint
January 16 2004

This weekend's fixtures look vaguely familiar. That's because they're the same as last weeks, only the venue is reversed. So take last week's column and reverse it.... No, don't do that, read on and see what I think about this week's matchups. Firstly apologies. Due to having a number of pressing problems to deal with, I haven't had much time to write the column this week. Therefore, the column is briefer on the detail than I would have liked. Hopefully normal service will be resumed next week (but I wouldn't bet on it - not a pun, sadly.)

Fri

Celtic Warriors v Wasps

I don't expect Wasps to slip up twice against the Warriors, and take
them to win by around nine points. The bookmakers make Wasps only 5
to 6 point favourites and Wasps look the bet of the night.

Borders v Saints

Saints go to Borders knowing a convincing win is needed to keep them
in contention in pool four. Saints are unsurprisingly favourites by
17 to 22 points. Whilst I see Saints winning, I think that the margin
of 22 points may well be beyond them. Two factors come to mind re
this game: it's a small club ground, and this may come as a shock to
the system, and the weather conditions are likely to be very cold. All
the ingredients that make for a shock are there. Saints to win, by
12 to 15 points. Four tries? Questionable. Borders with the points
the sensible call.

N-S Ospreys v Toulouse

Toulouse should be too strong for the Ospreys. Bookmakers make Toulouse
12 to 14 point favourites - I think this is close to the mark, and would
avoid this game for betting purposes.

Saturday

Calvisano v Perpignan

Perpignan are 17 to 24 point favourites. At the lower end of the scale
a very tempting bet. Perpignan should win by around 25.

Cardiff v Biarritz

Biarritz are 6 to 8 point favourites - I take Biarritz to win by 10.

Leicester v Ulster

Last chance saloon for Leicester after being nilled in Ulster. The
season could effectively end here. Ulster are not the best travellers,
but then Tigers form at home this season has been woeful. Prediction:
I think the Tigers will pull it out of the bag. The bookies have them
as 4 to 7 point favourites, and I'm not recommending a bet on this,
because I think they may have it about right.

Agen v Llanelli

An important game in our group and live on Sky. Agen lost narrowly in
the return fixture and I take them to return the favour with interest
and beat Llanelli by ten points, denying Llanelli anything from the
game. As for the chance of Agen scoring four tries - quite likely.
Agen are 7 point favourites and I take them to beat the line.

Munster v Gloucester

Munster to win. Bookies have them as 9 point favourites. Again, too
close to the mark for me to play.

Sunday

Leeds v Edinburgh

Edinburgh are receiving a 5 or 6 point start and, as a result, I would
take Edinburgh with the points. For Leeds backers, one bookie is offering
the game off scratch. Who will win - Leeds, by two.

Bourgoin v Treviso

Treviso receive 21 to 23 start but this is effectively as dead a game
progresswise as there is this weekend and therefore no bet is advised.
For the record, Bourgoin will win.

Stade Francais v Gwent Dragons

Stade are 12 to 18 point favourites. The 12 point margin (the same
bookie who has Leeds off levels; sticking their necks out I feel) is
somewhat tempting; 18 points really isn't. Stade by 16.

Sale v Leinster

Closest game last week, and could well be again. Sale receive a 2 to
3 point start and this merely complicates the prediction! I'm giving
this game a swerve, because honestly it is very 50-50 as to who will win.
If forced, Sale with the points. Only if forced.

Summary

Very few clear betting opportunities this weekend.

Friday's best bets: Wasps -5; Borders +22

Saturday's best bets: Perpignan -17, Biarritz -6; Agen -7

Sunday's best bets: Stade Francais -12.

All prices are best available (prices taken from the press this am)

Enjoy the games this weekend and

COME ON YOU SAINTS!!!

(Prove my selection wrong, the Borders one, that is)


Wellsaint


.