By Wellsaint
January 23 2004

Another round of European matches, let's hope the predictions are a little more accurate than last week's! Where else to start than the tightest of all the pools - ours? Heineken Cup Round Five Pool Stage - Matches played 23-24-25 January

Friday's Pool 4 games:

Agen v Saints

Le crunch. Saints go to Agen looking to get at least a point out of
the game. Both teams can still qualify for the knock out stages of the
competition. Agen lose at home somewhat infrequently (did I read 30
times in the last 50 years?) I can't see this being 31.

Why? Saints have never won at this level in France. My view is that
had Crenca not given Steve Thompson an Agen kiss in the 5th min of the
game at Franklin's, it would have been a good deal closer than it was.
Agen's pack look powerful, and from what I've seen of them on TV footage,
any scrums within the 22 could result in pushover tries. The one plus
point is Saints stingy defence (30 pts in four games) - but it should
be remembered that two of these games were against Borders (a more
rudderless attack I have never seen) and another against Agen playing
most of the game with 14 men.

The bookies have Agen as 6 to 8 point favourites (which is around the
line they had Llanelli at). Therefore they expect Saints may get a
losing bonus point. My verdict: Saints won't win. Will we get a bonus
point? Depends very much on the defence. If we do, it will be a good
result. Agen to win by... somewhere between six and ten points! Yes,
I'm going to be gloriously non committal on this! Will Agen score four
tries? No. Four points only I feel.

Llanelli v Borders

Llanelli are rated 32 to 38 point favourites and will beat the Borders
with something to spare, although I often wonder how many tries their
attack will run in. If forced, and if I could get a 38 start, I might
side Borders, if only because, assuming Borders get say two penalties,
this would leave Llanelli having to score 45 points.

Neither of the above games really strikes me as something that I must
bet on.


Friday's other games:

Celtic Warriors v Perpignan: Perpignan are rated 2 to 4 point favs for
this game. Celtic Warriors are playing well in this competition, and
will fancy their chances against Perpignan at home. Difficult one to
call - Perpigan only just scraped past Calvisano - and I take them
(just) to scrape past Celtic Warriors. No bet advised, too tight a
game.


Edinburgh v Neath-Swansea Ospreys

Edinburgh are 15 to 21 point favourites and should see the Ospreys off
on their way to being the first qualifier for the knockout. They have
been the surprise packet of the tournament, and I can see them qualifying
in style by beating the Ospreys with something to spare - by around 20 to
25 points. If you can get Edinburgh at the lower level of the handicap
then it represents as good a bet as any tonight. !

Leinster v Cardiff

Leinster are 16 to 18 point favourites, but, whilst being in pole position
to qualify from Pool Three, have failed to really impress over the last
two weeks. Cardiff will be on a high after last week, but I can't see
them making it two in a row. Leinster to win - points margin - fifteen
or so. Bit too close to the line for a serious punt either way.


Saturday's games

Treviso v Munster

Most bookies give Treviso a 19 or 20 point start but one gives them
a monster 30 point start. Treviso receiving 30 points would be good;
or Munster giving up 19, equally good. Because my view is that Munster
will win by around 25 points.

Stade Francais v Ulster

Again, diverse opinions - are Stade merely 9 or 16/17 point favs? (And
precisely what is the odds compiler at Bet Direct on?) Ulster really
need a point out of this. Well, in my view, they ain't about to get
one. Stade to win this, and the -9 is potentially the bet of the weekend.
Giving up 16 or 17 - not quite as sure, this is probably about the likely
margin - Stade by 15.

Gwent v Leicester

Leicester are 4 to 6 point favourites - why? Gwent have beaten Stade
and Ulster at home. Betting off scratch I could understand - but I
can't see them as favourites - Gwent +6 looks a good bet. Remember -
there have been no away wins in this group as yet. Statto question -
has this ever happened in a Euro group, six games, no away wins? If
you know, please post a message on the board - it'd be interesting to
know. Thanks in advance for any help on this.

Bourgoin v Gloucester

Again - another one I can't fathom. Gloucester as favourites? Why?
This is not an easy place to get a result - Munster only won by one
point, and Gloucester have never been the best travellers. I can
see Bourgoin winning this - if only by three points or so. Bourgoin
get a handy 3 to 5 point start from the bookies. Another bet I feel.


Sunday

Leeds v Toulouse

Toulouse are 9 (Bet Direct, again!) to 14 point favourites to win this
game. Have Bet Direct got money to burn? Toulouse should win this,
by nine, by fourteen - let's be honest, by around 20, if last week's
Leeds performace is repeated.

Sale v Biarritz

Biarritz just lost at Cardiff last week whilst Sale lost to Leinster.
A very, very hard game to call, bookies have Biarritz receiving 3 to
5 points, and I think Biarritz will win - the points start is a bonus.

Wasps v Calvisano

Bet Direct really have blown a gasket here - Wasps as 28 point favs -
other bookies go 38 to 42 points. Wasps should win this with something
to spare - but would I want to give up 42 points? No. 28? Oh, yes.
Wasps by... 35?

Summary: Tonight's games look tight for betting, but there are some
interesting prospects for the rest of the weekend. Bet Direct have
some very bold (or very stupid) handicaps, of which Stade -9 stands
out. Gwent and Bourgoin at home receiving points are both potentially
good bets. Sunday, and again, Bet Direct having Toulouse at -9 just
screams to be taken. Biarritz receiving points is tempting (but not
as much so as Gwent and Bourgoin on Sat.) - Wasps -28 seems a tad short.

Best bets:

Friday: a nice bottle of red wine. Or a beer. A malt even? Your call.

Saturday: Stade -9 with Bet Direct

Sunday: Toulouse -9 with Bet Direct

Have a good weekend, enjoy the action, and COME ON YOU SAINTS!!
(You can do it, or lose by less than seven.... I hope...)


Wellsaint