By Mark H
November 10 2004

Must win. All or nothing. Make or break. Last chance. Vital. Losing is not an option. However you label Saturday's game against London Irish, the end product required is clear. Only a victory is good enough, only a victory will be acceptable, come 2.15 that afternoon.

Franklin's Gardens is no longer a fortress. Opposition teams and their supporters are mocking us, thinking that playing Saints is now an easy four points (and to a certain extent, they're right). You look at the pundits who are predicting a Saints victory, and can only come to the conclusion that they've seen something we haven't, or that they believe that there is no way that this desperate run can continue.

Ah, the run. Six defeats in six league games. It's happened twice previously in the club's history - in 1987/88, the first season of league rugby, where in the old second division, arguably the worst side in the club's 124 years were only spared relegation by the fact that there was none, and that the RFU were content to give clubs a season to establish themselves into some sort of routine. Of the ten league games that season, nine were lost - the first three, then the last six. If there had been relegation, Saints would have sunk into division three - it was that bad. Add on a draw in the first game on 1988/89, and you get a run of seven games without a win that has been unequalled - to date. The only win in that dreadful season? London Irish were downed 16-15.

So if that run didn't cause relegation, the next one certainly did. Ian McGeechan's first year in charge was 1994/95, and the first six games were lost before the scramble to try and stay in the division started, with Saints ultimately being pipped on the last day by Harlequins. Despite Saints winning that last game at West Hartlepool, Quins had gone down to Kingsholm and beaten Gloucester in front of the Shed to stay up by a point - somewhat ironic then that Saints and Quins are amongst the strugglers again ten years on.

That run of defeats was broken by a 9-6 victory at the Gardens, and two of the players who played in that match will be present again this weekend. Grant Seely was in his first full season at the club (and playing his first league game at number eight), whilst Paul Grayson kicked all nine points to secure the two points, as it was in those days. On Saturday, Grant will be anchoring the pack from number eight, whilst we'll gladly take Grays kicking all of the points if it means winning the game.

This week, more than any other, substance over style needs to take precedence.

So twice previously it's happened, and twice Saints have finished bottom of the pile. If Quins actually find some form, it could start to terrify (it's already very worrying!). Quins play Sarries at home on Friday night, and a win there will really put the pressure on Saints and Worcester, who themselves entertain a Leicester team on Saturday shorn of most of their pack.

If you could pick a team that you'd like to play to end the run, however, it would not be Irish. Before this season, Saints tended not to lose home games - but always somehow managed to foul up against the exiles. Two years ago it was 22-10 in an atrocious game (ironically in a run of three league defeats); last year 30-24 with Mark Mapletoft making absolute fools out of the whole team to literally run in a try unchallenged. I think that a lot of the problem is that games between the two sides are never ever classics; either one side runs away with it, or it's attritional rugby in poor
conditions (note how many Saints-Irish matches are played in December and January). Even last season's game, which looks on paper to have been tight, saw Irish score three first half tries in ten minutes before Saints tried to peg it back in the second half.

Irish this season have flattered to deceive; wins over Harlequins, Sale, Saracens and Worcester have provided the ups; home losses to Leicester and Leeds (in particular) the downs. They’re supposed to have big problems in the pack, but until they take the field on Saturday and front up to the first collision, we will not know just what the extent of the problems are. We do know that last Sunday’s win over Worcester ended with uncontested scrums, but then so did our last home game (ironically both refereed by Chris White - is he missing something in open play?).

Outside the pack, it’s the usual Irish situation of good pros with something to prove. Mike Catt may have been the big name signing in the summer, but it’s been Aussie Scott Staniforth who’s been the jewel, making centre play look ridiculously easy. With the aforementioned Mapletoft and his bag of tricks alongside him, there is both power and invention. Elsewhere, Michael Horak may well end up a permanent fixture in the England A team, and with no prospect of going further because of the genius in front of him, but will always do a job for you. Justin Bishop is often overshadowed by (the currently injured) Paul Sackey, but again fills in with his share of tries and was one of the scorers in that win last season. Delon Armitage is filling in for Sackey, and for those of you thinking that having an Academy player on the wing gives Saints an edge, think again - he’s as quick, bigger, and is learning rapidly how to cut a decent attacking line.

There’s no Irish team news as yet, but the Saints team is:-

15 Bruce Reihana
14 John Rudd
13 Marc Stcherbina
12 Chris Hyndman
11 Wylie Human
10 Paul Grayson
9 Mark Robinson
1 Robbie Kempson
2 Dan Richmond
3 Chris Budgen
4 Matt Lord
5 Damien Browne
6 Andrew Blowers
7 Corne Krige (captain)
8 Grant Seely
16 Johan van Wyk
17 Brett Sturgess
18 Ed O'Donoghue
19 Mark Soden
20 Johnny Howard
21 Shane Drahm
22 Andy Vilk

Three changes then, with the England absentees being replaced by Dan Richmond and John Rudd, whilst Selborne Boome’s knee had flared up again so Lordy comes in.

Is Saturday Solly’s last stand? Finally noises have been coming out of the Gardens about how poor the situation is, but then we’ve know that for at least five weeks. As one not impressed by the fayre to date, you’d think that I’d be hoping that there may be change immediately after Saturday, but I don’t. I want to see a win - at any cost.  I don't even want to think about how bad I'll feel if we lose.

A win will not mean that a corner’s been turned, nor will it convince me that the right man is in charge, but it will take the monkey off the backs of the players. Yes, the gameplan is limited, but how much of that is tactical failings prior to the match and how much is fear of trying something on the field playing a part? I have my own opinions, but now is not the time for that particular appraisal. What I would like to see is some invention, something different - which is where Paul Grayson may well be the man to end two desperate runs ten years apart. Rather than batter away at the line, or keep switching it wide until we knock on, for example, why not try League-style grubber kicks to make the defence turn? How often do you see them in Super League, know that they’re coming, know that the defending side know they’re coming, and yet the defence can’t do anything about them? We have a coach with a League background, let’s use some of his expertise to vary the gameplan.

This is not a dig at Grays; he’s still the best playmaker we’ve got, but he can dictate the game like no-one else on the pitch can on Saturday. He’s a Saintsman. In Saintsmen we trust. And besides, if necessity is the mother of invention, then when has invention been more necessary than now?

Can we win? Of course. Will we win? With the limited ideas of recent weeks, no. Corne, Grays and the lads - surprise me.