By Wellsaint
January 14 2005

Twelve games this weekend, and a great majority of these will have some impact on who qualifies for the next stage of this competition. I've looked at the pools in time order. Pool Three - Matches played 19.30 Friday

Broadcasting details: Toulouse v Llanelli live on Sky Sports; Saints v Glasgow live audio available nationally on Five Live Sports Extra


Toulouse v Llanelli

With a bonus point win Toulouse can ensure a high seeding and a home draw in the quarter finals. They play a Llanelli side who came up short by two points against Saints last weekend. Llanelli only have pride left to play for, and I think that Toulouse will win convincingly. Prediction: Toulouse 35 (4 tries, therefore BP) Llanelli 10. The betting on this game is that Toulouse give 22-25 points to Llanelli and therefore this is a game swerved by me for betting purposes.

Saints v Glasgow

Saints know that a win with four tries would put them into the quarter finals of the competition (how unlikely did that seem just over two months ago?) Glasgow have only taken 2 losing bonus points in this year's competition and I can't see them getting anything out of the game. It's about time Saints scored a hatful - and I think tonight's the night. Prediction: Saints 40 (five tries) Glasgow 6. The betting is that Saints are 17-20 point favourites and if anything I think this is somewhat on the light side. Saints -17 is a sound bet.


Pool Four - Matches played 13.00 Saturday

Broadcasting details: Harlequins v Munster live on Sky Sports


Harlequins v Munster

Harlequins have nothing left to play for in this competition and face a Munster side who need a win to consolidate their position and confirm a home quarter final. They'll be looking to score tries as Biarritz could theoretically overtake them in the seedings if they get a maximum haul and Munster only scrape a win. Prediction: Harlequins 6 Munster 35 (4 tries). Only one bookie offering handicap odds so far and Harlequins receive an 11 point start. Do what?! Munster to beat this line with something to spare.

Ospreys v Castres

A game that will be of interest to Saints fans - if Castres win and score 4 tries, they can finish on the same points total as Saints if they get the maximum haul. If this were to happen, Castres would leapfrog Saints in the seedings as they would have a better try scoring record (unless Saints run riot, and I mean riot, tonight). Whilst I think Castres will win (Ospreys can't progress in this competition, but are in a solid position in the Celtic League), I don't think they'll get the four tries. Prediction: Ospreys 12 Castres 23 (3 tries)


Pool One - Matches played 15.00 Saturday

Broadcasting details: Biarritz v Wasps live on Sky Sports


Biarritz v Wasps

Biarritz have their destiny in their own hands; win, and they will go through, and in all possibility, knock both the defending champions, Wasps, and the current Zurich Premiership leaders, Leicester, out of the competition (I don't think that the 19 points that Leicester can get to with a bonus point win or Wasps with a narrow loss will be enough to qualify for the next round.) Biarritz have an impressive home record and I don't see anything changing on Saturday. Biarritz 25 (3 tries) Wasps 12. The only bookie betting on this game so far has Biarritz as 6 point favourites and Biarritz -6 looks like a good call to me.

Calvisano v Leicester

Leicester should win easily but it's unlikely to be enough. It's difficult to get to the knock-out stages after losing two games. Prediction: Calvisano 15 Leicester 42


Pool Two - Matches played at 17.15 Saturday

Broadcasting details: Leinster v Treviso live on Sky Sports


Leinster v Treviso

Leinster are the only unbeaten side in the competition and should make this six out of six with an easy win over a Treviso side that have performed creditably in this competition. Leinster should confirm themselves as No 1 seeds. Prediction: Leinster 50 (6 tries) Treviso 20.

Bourgoin v Bath

A match that's dead for qualifying purposes between a team that doesn't seem to have the heart for this competition and a team that's got serious injury problems. Prediction: Bourgoin 18 Bath 15.


Pool Five - Matches played at 13.00 Sunday

Broadcasting details: Newcastle v Newport live on Sky Sports


Newcastle v Newport

Potentially the closest game of the weekend in the closest pool of the weekend. Newport beat Newcastle in truly awful conditions at Rodney Parade by four points. I take Newcastle to take their revenge on Sunday, but they'll have to be close to their best to do so - Newport can qualify for the quarter finals if they win (although Perpignan may have something to say about that!) - and, indeed, Newport are the only Welsh side with a chance of progressing further in this competition - so the incentive is there. Regardless of this, I take Newcastle to edge this. Prediction: Newcastle 25 (3 tries) Newport 22.

Edinburgh v Perpignan

Perpignan have one big advantage here in that they'll know exactly what they have to do to qualify for the knock out stages. It may be, if both Saints and Castres score four tries, that the only way to qualify from this group is to win it. If that were to be the case, Perpignan would have to win the match and then hope that Newport beat Newcastle - it would then come down to any bonus points out of either game or, failing that, the respective try counts! I think that Perpignan will win and get the maximum points. Prediction: Edinburgh 10 Perpignan 30 (4 tries.)


Pool Six - Matches played at 15.00 Sunday

Broadcasting details: Gloucester v Stade Francais live on Sky Sports and in audio on
Five Live Sports Extra


Gloucester v Stade Francais

Gloucester take on Stade knowing that if they beat them convincingly they can win the group. I can't see more than one team qualifying from this group, and so this really is a "winner takes all" match - except that it isn't quite as simple as that (it's the Heineken Cup, who said it was going to be simple?!) Gloucester need to win by nine points or more, stop Stade getting anything out of the game, and score two tries more than Stade. (At least, I think that's what they've got to do. But I've probably got some of that wrong!) Will Gloucester win? Yes. Will they score two tries more than Stade? No. Will they stop Stade getting anything out of the game? No. Prediction: Gloucester 23 (3 tries) Stade 18 (2 tries)

Cardiff v Ulster

I think Ulster can still theoretically qualify but it's very, very unlikely. Cardiff have nothing other than pride to play for. Prediction: Cardiff 18 Ulster 12


You know what, I'm glad it's the Powergen next week - only four games to analyse....