By Wellsaint
November 18 2005

Wellsaint's weekly look at what's on offer for the punter in this week's Guinness Premiership.

 

Friday night

Worcester v Bristol - live on Sky

This mid-table clash should result in another home win for Worcester at Sixways.  There were some who thought that Worcester would struggle this season, but some smart recruitment over the summer (who did Shane Drahm play for, again?) has meant that they have consolidated their position well.  For their part Bristol got off to a good start; the results have been more mixed of late, but they still managed to beat Leeds in what was widely seen as a crucial match come season's-end at the end of the season. 

Worcester to win this by nine.  Betting wise, this is also the most common handicap line (yes, I do write this column BEFORE I look at the handicaps, in case you were wondering) - in one place Worcester are given only a seven point handicap, and at -7, I could make a case for betting them. 

Sale v Leicester

First meets third here - again, a pity this fixture is being played on an international weekend.  Both teams will be without key players, and this makes it a hard match to get interested in from a betting point of view.  I predict a narrow four point win for Sale, the bookies agree with me, and therefore there's no bet to be had on this game.

 

Sunday's matches

Leeds v Northampton

Bottom meets tenth here in what is potentially a ten-pointer - this really could be very crucial at the end of the season.  Again, there's been a great deal of debate on the board - hawks v doves, half-full glass v half-empty glass, call it what you will (moon on a stick?!)  Leeds are bottom of the table and were convincingly beaten at Bristol last week; Saints meanwhile got nothing out of the game against Wasps. Previewing this game is made no easier by the fact that both teams have players out on international duty (more of a problem for Saints than Leeds) and Saints also have something of an injury crisis meaning that the team hasn't as yet been named.  From my reading of the situation, there would appear to be very little cover on the wings, so having our wingers playing for England and Scotland isn't exactly ideal.  And that's just one of the potential problem areas.  Leeds ran Sale very close two weeks ago at Headingley, and I think a repeat of that performance may well be enough - Sale's defence was stretched at times, and I think that a similar performance on Sunday will allow Leeds to break through and score some tries.  Certainly the turnovers have got to be cut out of the game, otherwise we're making it very hard for ourselves.

I've had a bad feeling about this game for some time, and I think that this might be where Leeds pick up their first win.  Leeds by four.

 

London Irish v Gloucester

Potentially the tightest game of the weekend, with both teams in the upper half of the table.  I take London Irish to edge the game by two points.

 

Saracens v Newcastle

Sarries drew away to Bath last week but back at Vicarage Road should be able to account for Newcastle who lost to London Irish in the live game on Sky last week.  Obviously there is more to a side than their kicker - although from Newcastle's performance last week, it appeared to me that they were relying on JW almost winning the game single-handedly.  Saracens by ten.

 

Wasps v Bath

Again, this is usually one of the better match-ups of the season and will be affected by international call-ups, which make it no easier to predict what the eventual outcome will be!  I think that Wasps will make home advantage count, and that they will beat Bath by six points.