Right, let's start with the easy bit.  If Saints win or draw, then the group is ours and we will, at worst, be seeded sixth in the quarter-finals.  Any higher seeding will depend on other results going our way, and the number of tries that Saints score on Friday night - but that's another story, and the possibilities at the moment are infinitesimal.  Suffice to say that if Saints score at least four tries, the potential is there to be number two seeds (we would have to score at least 15(!) tries to overtake Toulouse, and as much as I'd like it, it's not going to happen).

If Saints lose, however, then it's calculators out time.  The scenarios are (and these are all based on a Biarritz win against Cardiff):-

1) If Saints score a try, then Biarritz cannot win the group irrespective of the match result.

2) If Ulster fail to score 3 tries, and win by less than 23 points, Saints will go through by virtue of having scored more tries in the matches against Biarritz and Ulster.

3) If Ulster fail to score 3 tries, and win by 23 points or more, then Biarritz will win the group by virtue of having scored more tries than Ulster, and by having a better points difference than Saints.

4) If Ulster score 3 tries, Saints score none, and Ulster win by less than 23 points, Saints will go through by virtue of having scored more tries than Biarritz, and having a better points difference than Ulster in the matches between the two sides.

5) If Ulster score 3 tries, Saints score none, and win by 23 or 24 points, Biarritz will progress by virtue of having a better points difference in the games between the three sides.

6) If Ulster score 3 tries, Saints score none, and win by 25 points or more, Ulster will progress by virtue of having a better points difference in the games between the three sides.

7) If Ulster score 3 tries more than Saints (4-1, 5-2 etc.), then Ulster will need to win by 24 points or more to qualify by virtue of having a better points difference than Saints in the two matches.

8) If Ulster score 4 tries more than Saints, Ulster will progress by virtue of having scored more tries than either Biarritz or Saints in the matches between the sides.

Basically, the premise is that for every Saints try scored, Ulster have to score at least three more and win by a margin that we haven't lost by all season.  The perfect way to relieve a lot of the tension would be for Archie Brooks or Kingsthorpe's Finest to go over in the corner in the first minute to eliminate Biarritz.  That way, Ulster will have to throw the ball about to try and get the tries and winning margin that they need.

As for the quarter final seeding, watch the results come in on Saturday and Sunday.  There are two key matches.

Munster v Gloucester.  A Saints-Munster double would mean at least the fifth spot, and probable avoidance of another trip to our fortress at Welford Road.

Glasgow v Llanelli (Friday night).  Again, a Saints-Glasgow double would again mean at least fifth spot.  Alternatively, if both Saints and the Scarlets win, four more tries than Llanelli score for Saints will also raise us above the Welsh.

If there's a Saints-Munster-Glasgow treble, then Saints will be fourth seeds with a home draw, probably against Gloucester.  It would be asking way too much for Neath to win at Leicester - wouldn't it?

Right then is everyone clear about all of that? Ok we're all still lost so the arrangement is this: Mark is taking two large pieces of card to Ravenhill, one has a tick and one has a cross on it. He will hold up the appropriate piece of card at no-side on Friday night.

THE TEAMS

Northampton Saints

15 NICK BEAL
14 James Brooks
13 PETER JORGENSEN
12 JOHN LESLIE (capt)
11 BEN COHEN


10 PAUL GRAYSON
9 MATT DAWSON
1 TOM SMITH
2 STEVE THOMPSON
3 MATT STEWART
4 STEVE WILLIAMS
5 Rob Hunter
6 Grant Seely
7 Mark Soden
8 MARK CONNORS

Replacements:
16 Dan Richmond
17 Chris Budgen
18 Robbie Morris
19 Jon Phillips
20 Ian Vass
21 Mark Tucker
22 JON SLEIGHTHOLME

Ulster

B Cunningham, Topping, Constable, Stewart, Coulter, Humphreys, Doak; Kempson, Sexton, Best, Longwell, Davidson, Ward, McMilan, McWhirter.

Replacements: Fitzpatrick, Shields, Blair, Nelson, Campbell, J Cunningham, Young.

History

To my knowledge Northampton have never played Ulster before this season, so with a 32-9 win Saints already have the 1-0 upper hand in that particular mini series. Click the link for the COYSDC Saints V Ulster Match report

If You're Going to the Game

You lucky people I'm sure you'll have a whale of a time but wrap up warm as the weather report isn't nice. For the rest of us stuck at home the game is live on the television (kick off 7.05pm) on both British Eurosport and BBC 2 NI (sky digibox channel 962). If you can't get those channel's the dynamic duo of Adam Blackmore and James Knight are covering the game on BBC Radio Northampton  or if you can't get any of those try the live web cast from the Saints official site.

Here are the rest of the round 6 games:
Pool 3: Glasgow Rugby v Llanelli (BBC Wales)                     1930    Tony Spreadbury (E)
Pool 6: Ulster v Northampton Saints (BBC NI / B Euro)        1905    Joel Dume (F)

Pool 1: Leicester Tigers v Neath                                            1500    Alain Rolland (I)
            Beziers v Amatori & Calvisano                                  1800    Donal Courtney (I)
Pool 2: Viadana v Perpignan (Tele +)                                     1500    Roy Maybank (E)   
            Munster v Gloucester (RTE / BBC)                           1445    Joel Jutge (F)
Pool 3: Bourgoin v Sale Sharks                                              1500    Alan Lewis (I)
Pool 4: Swansea v Montferrand                                             1500    Gregg Davies (S)
Pool 5: Newport v Edinburgh Rugby                                      1430    Christophe Berdos (F)
Pool 6: Biarritz Olympique v Cardiff (FR2)                             1500    Giulio De Santis (It)

Pool 4: Bristol Shoguns v Leinster Lions (B Euro/RTE)           1345    Nigel Owens (W)
Pool 5: London Irish v Toulouse                                             1345    Iain Ramage (S)